College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Dec 28th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-12-28 07:38:10

Now that Christmas has calmed down, College Football is at its bowl season, and NFL is winding down into the playoffs, College Basketball daily fantasy can finally heat up. This is the last weekend before conference play begins, so I expect to see some new blood into the games and higher prize pools in the New Year. There will be a ton of games each Saturday from here on out which should make for bigger prize pools and also more RG College Basketball content.

Tonight has a bunch of games which could turn into fantasy garbage. There are some horrible teams playing good defensive teams and this could get really ugly for some. I like most of the home teams today and other than the 2 marquee games and Missouri/NC State, most of these games could turn into blowouts.

All stats courtesy of kenpom.com

Louisville T: 69.4

This is one of 2 super matchups of the day, pitting Louisville against Kentucky at Rupp. Chris Jones is back from his minor injury, and should play at least 30 minutes in this game. He makes a solid play as his price has dropped and he will be facing off against the Harrisons who have not impressed me defensively. Russ Smith gets the other Harrison and also makes a solid play as he reached 36 points in 37 minutes in the only competition that Louisville has played this year, a loss to UNC. I am a little bit worried about the other players. Harrell struggled against the bigs of UNC, and with Randle and WCS for Kentucky, he could be in for another stinker. Mangok Mathiang could produce some value as he has been playing very well into at least 20 minutes of time in at least 4 straight, but has a low ceiling. Everyone else on the team is very hard to judge with inconsistent minutes and is not an active part of the offense.

Kentucky T: 69.5

Kentucky goes into this game thinking the supposed 40-0 team could have 4 losses after facing the defending champs, which is not going to make big blue faithful happy. I really like the bigs of Kentucky today against the bigs of Louisville, and as long as Randle and WCS stay out of foul trouble, they should have big games. Randle is the more expensive and better option of the 2 as Cauley-Stein has struggled against top notch competition this year going for 5 and 4 against MSU, 8 and 2 against Baylor, and 5 and 7 against North Carolina. While I like his matchup, I cannot see anything here other than blocks that are going to make him a must own guy. I really like Aaron Harrison in this one against Russ Smith. Smith is a good defender, but Aaron has a massive size advantage and really has come into his own as another scoring option. Aaron should be able to pull down some rebounds and make his value today. James Young is a tough player to play as all he does it shoot and does not contribute in any other ways. He stays cheap, but is a risky play. Even with a big game against UNC, I cannot bring myself to use Andrew Harrison either. Way too little shots, and a penchant of disappearing from games.

Villanova T: 70.2

The other big game is at the Carrier Dome where Villanova will travel to meet Syracuse. Villanova has been murderer’s row with their defense this year and shares the ball very well which could match up well with the Syracuse zone. Arcidiacono will face off against Tyler Ennis in this one, and makes a pretty speculative play. Arch has had the ball a bit less in his hands this year, is taking a few less shots, and playing less minutes. While his efficiency has gone up, it does not bode well for fantasy purposes as he has not eclipsed 4 assists but once and never over 14 points. I like Darrun Hilliard in this game as a cash game option as he is very consistent and will put up at least 15 fantasy points guaranteed. JayVaughn Pinkston has had a rough couple of games, but has only played 20 minutes in each of the last 2. I expect that to change tonight and if I am taking a Villanova player, I am taking him as he will pull down rebounds and also take 10 shots per game. James Bell is another guy who shoots the rock a ton for the Wildcats, but I am not big on anyone from Villanova. I think this game turns into a low scoring, grind-it-out affair with no huge fantasy star.

Syracuse T: 64.8

On the other side of the ball, you have Syracuse who loves to get CJ Fair the ball and have him score any way possible. There are 2 guys I am touting in this game, both from Syracuse and they are Fair and Tyler Ennis. Fair is going to take a bunch of shots and should reach 20 points on points alone. Ennis is an up and down scorer but balances it with rebounds and assists. Syracuse rebounds as a team due to their zone and forcing jump shots from the other team, so any of their forwards are a risk to play along with them splitting minutes. As noted above, I expect this to end in the 64-62 range so I believe you can find value elsewhere.

NC State T: 68.7

After a strange loss to NC Central, the Wolfpack have really come together as a team. They have an incredible stud in TJ Warren who can score from all over the floor and makes a terrific play today. On whatever site Warren is not top salary on, it is a mistake and you shoudl use him. He takse around 15 shots per game, is usually around 10 rebounds, and has scored at least 21 in the last 7 games, the 21 being a very slow paced game against Tennessee. Missouri has no one who can check Warren and he could be good for 40 fantasy points again today. Cat Barber has really come into his own lately and is giving NC State another option outside of Warren. His slip p against Detroit was due to foul trouble, so if he is still dirt cheap on FanDuel, I would not hesitate to use both. I also like Jordan Vandenburg in this game as Missouri has no one who can match up with him as well. Lennard Freeman is rebounding well, but no one really scores other than Warren, so his upside is limited along with Desmond Lee and Ralston Turner.

Missouri T: 69.3

Missouri goes to NC State after a tough loss to Illinois. They will be focused for this geam but I really hate their matchup. Missouri has no solid bigs who can check Warren or Vandenburg, so the job on Warren will most likely go to Brown or Ross. I like Clarkson in this one as he has been a stud and really improved himself from his Tulsa days. Jabari Brown plays almost the entire game, and I would give the edge to him if he is cheaper than Clarkson on a site like DraftKings as Brown is almost solely reliant on the 3 point shot to score. Brown might end up with Warren on him, but that will not detract from his value. Ross has had one big game and the rest average, so he is a low upside, low risk play for me today as he is reliant on the 3 as well. Johnathan williams really scares me as he will most likely have Vandenburg ready to block any shots he takes. He has only gone in double digit points 3 times, but has reached double digit rebounds 3 times. When you pick him you are hoping for a state line like 7pts 13rebs which is not out of the question but may be tough in a game with many jumpers.

UCLA T: 71.8

UCLA is very easy to figure out for me. Outside of Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams, there is really no one who can be counted on consistently. Anderson makes a top play any time he takes the court with his triple double potential and Jordan Adams has 30+ point potential with his sweet shooting stroke. I love them today against an Alabama team which is playing at Pauley and cannot match up with the 2. Zach LaVine has hit a slump and makes a speculative play, Norman Powell has single digit fantasy point duds with regularity, and UCLA has no bigs worth starting as they all split minutes and are not a big part of the offense. If you are feeling frisky, Bryce Alford has been averaging 20 minutes per game and has been pretty efficient in those given to him.

Alabama T: 64.1

Alabama returned all of their starters except for Trevor Lacy, so I thought they would be a bit better, however they have been worse. I was expecting a bit more consistency and efficiency out of Releford this year as the go to scorer, but that has not happened. He is really the only guy I would consider taking in an away game against a solid team. Retin Obasohan has been decent, however his one giant game came without Releford in the lineup. Rodney Cooper and Randolph just are not consistent enough options to consider. One guy I cannot figure out is Nick Jacobs. Jacobs has had some really solid games, but also varies in playing time. He is as upand down as they come, but is really the only guy on Alabama worth anything outside of Releford.

Xavier T: 67.3

Xavier is strange. They had the worst Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that I have ever seen, losing all 3 games, one to USC who is not good but rebounded with dominating Cincinnati and beating Alabama. This is a very important game not to lose for Chris Mack’s squad against Wake so I would expect them to hand the ball to their stud Christon to go to work. Wake’s bigs LOVE to foul and Christon does his best work when getting to the hole and shooting free throws. Christon can be found at a discount and should break out of his slump in this one. I wish Matt Stainbrook could figure out of a way to stay out of foul trouble as he puts up some monster numbers when on the floor. His ceiling is high and has a good shot at making value in this one as well. Dee Davis is dirt cheap as well and plays almost the entire game, even though he is not much of a contributor, he has the potential to get some fantasy points. I really would not go for anyone else on Xavier other than maybe Isaiah Philmore who was very good in big minutes last game and Mack could reward him with more. Wake is fast so they should give Xavier a few extra possessions.

Wake Forest T: 70.2

We are real close to seeing if Wake Forest is actually good or if they are a cupcake eater. Xavier will most likely bump the tempo down a little in this game so value in Wake’s players takes a bit of a hit. Last game was completely brutal for Wake however so I expect them to try to run a bit in this one. Codi MIller-McIntyre has been great and is a threat for 25-5-5 every time out. He is expensive and will face off against Christon, but he is the most consistent option here. Devin Thomas has relearned how to play basketball and has 2 double doubles in his last 2. If he is inexpensive he makes a solid play against Stainbrook who cannot keep from fouling. Thomas is one of the best rebounders in the nation, so missed shots are his forte. I almost feel as if Travis McKie has hardly improved at all in his 4 years at the school. His efficiency is up a bit but he’s taking less shots and rebounding less. He is a low risk, low upside option today. Coron Williams does not do anything but shoot and Madison Jones does not do anything but assist, and I hate one dimensional players.

Kansas State T: 65.2

Tulane is one of my favorite teams to dissect. They have a horrible 2pt defense due to them having no one over 6-3 that can play basketball. The Kansas State bigs have not encountered anyone as bad at defense as Tulane yet, so I would expect Gibson and Southwell to go ham in this game. Iwundu makes a solid play as well. I also like Foster, as the entire Tulane defense is bad, but I am giving the edge to the bigs in this one if they are cheaper. There really is not much to say as there will not be a lot of possessions, however I expect K-State to make those count.

Tulane T: 66.1

Kansas State’s 2pt D is also poor, but their 3pt defense is stellar. I am avoiding the bigs from Tulane and also Jay Hook who takes a ton of 3’s for the Green Wave. Dabney and Stark are definitely in play however as drivers as they will be the guys required to score to keep this one close. I may avoid them altogether however as Kansas State could lock this one down defensively and limit all upside.

Nebraska T: 68.1

Here is what could be another ugly, ugly game. Nebraska and their poor offense goes to Cincinnati to face off against the long and tenacious Bearcats. The only way people score against Cincinnati is at the 3 point line, so if you want a real sneaky GPP option, look no further than Ray Gallegos. Ray takes a ton of shots from 3 and has not gotten hot yet this year, so it could be coming. Terran Petteway is the #1 scoring option as well, but he takes a lot of 2’s so I am going to be fading him in this game. In fact, I hate most of the Cornhuskers against this tenacious Bearcats D. The only other guy I would consider would be Walter Pitchford as the big man can really shoot it from deep and is a decent rebounder.

Cincinnati T: 65.9

Cincinnati should feast in this game against a horrible Cornhuskers team which could be able to speed them up. Justin Jackson has really emerged as a solid option for Mick Cronin and he should continue his breakout campaign again. He makes even better of a play on FanDuel with the extra points for blocks. Titus Rubles has been awful recently and I would not use him unless forced to today. Caupain and Guyn split point guard duties and neither makes a strong play but I think Caupain is the better play overall as he is the better player in real life and should have more minutes than Guyn. Do not worry about Kilpatrick’s stinker against Pittsburgh as that game was an aberration. He should be good for 22 points and 5 rebounds again in this one.

Georgia T: 65.7

One team that I really cannot stand this year is Georgia. They are awful like most of the SEC and should have a hard time competing tonight against Colorado. Kenny Gaines takes a ton of shots but does not do anything else, so he makes a risky play. Charles Mann could be their best offensive player, but he has a horrible turnover problem which hurts his value on a site like FanDuel he is the guy with the most upside however, so if you are looking to take a gamble on a Georgia player and he is cheap, he could pay off. The guy that I am really interested in as a super cheap value option is Juwan Parker who has stepped into a starting role and should draw the suspect defense of Askia Booker. Parker is efficient when given the chance and should be really cheap but is a major risk.

Colorado T: 70.2

Tad Boyle does not use advanced statistics, and he could be much better if he did. There is no reason why Askia Booker should be continuing to shoot the ball as much as he is. He is not a good offensive player and the shots should be going through Dinwiddie and Scott, the two best offensive players. If Boyle ever figures this out, Dinwiddie could become a max salary guy, until then he is a very good fantasy player but not a superstar. I like him this game especially with his nice free throw rate. I also love Josh Scott again as he has really improved his game in every aspect. Scott will be good for some putbacks again and I fully expect him to reach double digit rebounds. He is still underpriced and should perform. Wesley Gordon had a rough return, but if his price went down enough he should get back to his 9pt 7reb consistentcy. I like Colorado in this game to score a bunch of points and should provide value.