College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Feb 15th
With the NBA on all-star break, FanDuel and DraftKings have really rolled out the college basketball tournaments. DraftKings has a $5k tournament and a $5k double up in the lobby and FanDuel has their $12k Saturday main event which you can buy in for $25 dollars. FanDuel has also announced their Survive the Madness tournament which will award $10k to first place.
There are some definite injury concerns to take advantage of today and some Big 12 games which are going to be some of the highest scoring of the night. There are lots and lots of games today so I cannot get to them all today, but I will try to highlight the most fantasy relevant games. If you have any specific questions, the best way to get me will be on Twitter @Bronzesword as after tonight I may not be on RG until late tomorrow. As always, projections are from KenPom.com, and I am hoping there are no weather postponements today.
Oklahoma 79 at Oklahoma State 86
Oklahoma
This should be a very uptempo game today and Oklahoma should be able to score at will. Texas made shots against OK State but their defense has really taken a huge hit without Cobbins and now without Smart they are even worse. Hield, Spangler and Woodard had bad games last game against Texas Tech but this should be a completely different story. All 3 should have had their price drop at least a little bit and are definitely in play today. Cam Clark is also in play but his upside seems to have dropped recently. Even in Gallagher-Iba Oklahoma should score at will here.
Oklahoma State
Keep in mind this score projection is assuming Marcus Smart’s season long minutes and the Cowboys were awful without him in the last game. Phil Forte had a horrible game against Texas but I still like him for value today. The offense runs through Le’Bryan Nash now and he should again make value in this game. Markel Brown should also be solid for value and Kamari Murphy is going to play a bigger part in the offense. Oklahoma State ran basically a 6 man rotation in the last game and even Christien Sager might be in play if minimum salary. Oklahoma’s defense is nothing to write home about so I am targeting Cowboys for value today.
West Virginia 74 at Texas 81
West Virginia
WVU absolutely manhandled Iowa State early this week and I expect a different performance this time. I cannot see them scoring over 100 on Texas in any world. Staten’s price is sky high and I like the other top salary guys a little bit more than him today. The thing about Staten is that he is basically a guaranteed 30 fantasy points as he fills the stat sheet and is the top option on WVU. Terry Henderson started out the game on fire but cooled a bit and had a pretty disappointing stat line for his first 5 minutes. I still like Eron Harris better than Henderson as I believe Huggins trusts Harris a bit more. WVU is a pretty strange group as you cannot trust any of their forwards, Harris and Henderson just shoot and Staten is top salary. Not the greatest matchup today for WVU but they do not make terrible plays.
Texas
The thing to look at here is if Jonathan Holmes will be playing which at this point it looks like he will. If he does not suit up, ride Cameron Ridley all day. I would even like Ridley even if Holmes does play as Ridley should take full advantage of the weak WVU interior. If Holmes is a no go, Connor Lammert makes another solid bargain play. Javan Felix had a ridiculous shooting day against Oklahoma State in the last game, and I would shy away from using him as I think that game was more of a fluke. I think the safer option is Isaiah Taylor who is consistent and will get you a guaranteed few.
California 76 at Washington 75
California
I always love taking players from teams playing against Washington. They have one of the weakest interior defenses I have ever seen and they just give up easy bucket after easy bucket on that end of the court. Any 3 point shooter like Wallace, Kreklow and Bird I would shy away from here as I fully expect Richard Solomon to have a monster game. Solomon rebounds like a freak and has been having trouble scoring lately, but when you are laying it up and dunking, it’s hard to miss those shots. I also like Justin Cobbs if he is in attack mode and drives to the hoop because Washington will allow him to get there.
Washington
This game being at home, the Huskies should at least keep this one close to maintain value for some of their players. California has given up good looks from 3 this season and CJ Wilcox could take full advantage of it. Nigel Williams-Goss could also have a big game tonight most likely being guarded by Justin Cobbs. Mike Anderson had a really solid game against Stanford and was a great bargain on FanDuel where he was minimum salary. He is one of the more consistent low salary options. Perris Blackwell doesn’t play good defense and doesn’t rebound well so Romar has been fooling around with post players giving Desmond Simmons and Shawn Kemp a lot of extra run. Simmons is very cheap and could be a sneaky option tonight.
Iowa 84 at Penn State 74
Iowa
Here we go again, we will play the Iowa minutes guessing game. It looks like Mike Gesell has finally gained the trust of Fran McCaffery and is at the minutes level of Marble and White. Both White and Marble are the 2 best plays here, especially against Penn State. I would go with Marble as the top play on the team due to Penn State’s solid 2 point defense. I am also liking Mike Gesell as noted above he is playing a ton of minutes and is usually good for a lot of assists and some points. I really wouldn’t recommend anyone else on Iowa as they all play 20 minutes or less and Fran subs them in and out like a rotating door.
Penn State
Finally, a really solid matchup for Tim Frazier. Even though Iowa has a great defense, Frazier is against a high tempo team at home. Frazier is an outstanding player, and his price is really low for his upside. DJ Newbill has also been really solid lately and is another good option here. I have really given up on figuring out how many minutes Ross Travis is going to get as it appears Pat Chambers doesn’t even know when he walks into the gym. Travis is solid when he gets 30 minutes but he didn’t even start last game and never got into the flow. I really do not like anyone else. Penn State has been using multiple different players for multiple minutes which has really clouded their DFS picture.
Utah 70 at UCLA 78
Utah
Delon Wright was again a stud in the last game against USC going 20-9-5. Now Utah has to go to UCLA who will be looking for revenge from Utah beating them in the altitude a few weeks ago. I really think he could go nuts in this game as well but he only went for 12-6-7 in the last game against UCLA. The Bruins do not have the best defense and it will most likely be Anderson on Wright unless UCLA lines up in a zone. Jordan Loveridge has really been coming on lately and could also be a good play here as he went 17-4-9 in their last meeting. UCLA will bump up the tempo and give Utah a boost here.
UCLA
Kyle Anderson went completely ham in the last game against Colorado and the last time that these two teams met. Anderson in my mind makes the top play of the day here in a game which should feature a good amount of possessions. UCLA I imagine will try to run Utah out of the gym and Anderson will be a part of almost every possession. I do not like Jordan Adams as much as Anderson as the Utah perimeter defense is
LSU 78 at Arkansas 85
LSU
Pretty good and Adams was held to a pretty meager game in the last one. Zach LaVine had one of his last good games against Utah last time but he just does not make a good play anymore like most of the non Anderson Adams guys on UCLA.
For some reason I am really excited about this game. Both LSU and Arkansas play a ridiculous amount of possessions per game and both have guys with a lot of talent who can put up some huge stat lines. I really am liking Johnny O’Bryant in this one as he should be able to run the floor well and finish at the rim fairly easily. Jordan Mickey also makes a great play in this one. Mickey and O’Bryant both went nuts in the last game these two teams played and if you can get them both it is not a horrible play to use both. Shavon Coleman is a complete risk but could pay off here. He played big important minutes in the last game against Texas A&M and produces when he is involved. The other guy here is Jarell Martin who is pretty cheap and also producing.
Arkansas
Unbelievably, Mike Anderson is getting some consistency to his minutes and cutting down the bench minutes. Rashad Madden, Bobby Portis, Michael Qualls and Coty Clarke all play big minutes and Madden and Portis hardly come off the court. All 3 make solid plays here as this game could easily get into the 80s. To score against LSU, you need to make 3s because their inside game is just so good. I would definitely use Maddenand Qualls over Clarke and Portis.
Maryland 72 at Duke 88
Maryland
What a turnaround as Maryland goes from playing Virginia to playing Duke who are two polar opposite teams. Duke is going to play a ton of possessions and plays horrible post defense. The problem with Maryland is that they really have no reliable big to abuse Duke’s weakness. I could see Evan Smotrycz having a solid game in this one but he has just been so inconsistent and bad recently that using him is a huge risk. Charles Mitchell is the guy who gets the most minutes but I wouldn’t trust him with anything to put together a solid game. Seth Allen has really added some scoring punch to Maryland but some places have appropriately altered his salary. Allen doesn’t have a great matchup, but he has the green light to shoot and we all saw what can happen when he hits almost all of his 3’s. Dez Wells quietly puts up 20 points and a couple of other stats every game but really never gets used.
Duke
Maryland plays really fast so I like the spot Duke is in here. Maryland has a horrible 3 point defense so a guy like Rodney Hood could have a great game. Jabari Parker does most of his damage going to the rim and should have another solid game tonight as he is really matchup proof. Duke’s offense is ridiculously efficient and Maryland will allow Duke to shoot the 3 and to make the 3 which could put this game out of reach fairly easy. I really do not hate anyone on Duke today and they should be able to score a ton against Maryland tonight.