College Basketball Grind Down, Sat Feb 22nd
It is my fault for getting this up so late, but late is better than never. Because Saturday’s are so large, I am going to break down my biggest games to target and then give an overview of the rest of the slate, day games and night games. We will see how this will go and hopefully I can touch on a little bit more games for this Saturday. Let me know if you would like the more in depth for more games or that I try to touch on a lot of them.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and a reminder to check injury status before tip at noon. There are a ton of games between bubble teams and top 25 teams today. This should be one of the best days of CBB for quality, so I am going to enjoy it for what it is today and try to avoid looking at my rosters until the end of the night.
Early Games
Wisconsin 73 at Iowa 79
Wisconsin
This is definitely a game that I am looking to target here. It should be a close competitive battle with Wisconsin getting a nice tempo bump. This game is going to be almost 10 possessions more than Wisconsin is used to playing, so guys like Dekker, Kaminsky, and Brust all make fine plays tonight. Wisconsin’s salaries are a bit depressed today because of their slow style so their players may allow you to fit some more expensive guys in. You can attack Iowa inside so I like Dekker and Kaminsky the most and I would consider Nigel Hayes if cheap, he is one of the most improved players this year.
Iowa
Last game against Wisconsin it was Devyn Marble playing almost the entire game and doing the damage from the perimeter. He took a ton of shots and that’s what you want with a college player. Marble should again do well here as with Wisconsin’s sagging defense you can score if you can make some outside shots. Mike Gesell has been really solid lately so if he is still cheap I would also use him. Iowa does not really interest me too much as Wisconsin has the ability to really make things difficult for the Iowa offense if their defense is clicking. I would look at Iowa guards and not much else.
Washington 73 at Oregon State 80
Washington
It appears that Desmond Simmons has fully worked himself into the rotation. He is a nice cheap option who is going to get all the minutes he can handle today against the height of Oregon State. CJ Wilcox has been strangely quiet recently and it somewhat reminds me of the stress fracture he had last year which hampered his scoring ability for the rest of the year. Memories aside, this is a great matchup for Wilcox whose price on Draftstreet is incredibly low for a shooter of his caliber. Either Wilcox or Williams-Goss is going to go nuts against the bad perimeter defense of Oregon State and it was Williams-Goss last time out who went for 32. I would fight for either of those two in my lineups. As for the forwards, Blackwell came off the bench the last game but put up nice numbers. I still like Simmons better for the price though.
Oregon State
Definitely a fun game to have on the early slate, this should be an awesome up and down affair with lots of points and hardly any defense. Washington is awful at defending the paint and Oregon State should abuse that in this game even though they did not last game. I like Eric Moreland today here at home, and I think he goes for a massive game. I also like Angus Brandt in this one and Roberto Nelson. Nelson has been just blah lately but is one of the best scorers in the Pac-12 and went for 31 last time against Washington. Hallice Cooke should again provide some salary cap relief on a site like FanDuel as he still hasn’t cracked the 5,100 price point.
LSU 71 at Kentucky 84
LSU
Johnny O’Bryant said it best, that LSU needs this game. They have dropped off the bubble picture for the moment but could add their name with a sweep of Kentucky. O’Bryant was in foul trouble last game so his stats were a bit lower than usual but he went nuts against Kentucky last time and I would expect the same thing here. Probably not a 29-4-5 stat line but he will grab 30 fantasy points pretty confidently in my mind. Jarell Martin has also been playing his best basketball lately after his breakout game against Mississippi State. I do not like him as much in this game as I think he will take the backseat to Mickey and O’Bryant but for how affordable he is he might be a decent plug in option. Mickey should be solid again, and I would really consider Shavon Coleman. Yes, he’s a bit inconsistent, but LSU needs him to play a lot of minutes here to deal with the height of the Harrison’s in the backcourt. I think Coleman makes a sweet contrarian play today.
Kentucky
The Tigers beat Kentucky at home last time by just being a poor matchup overall for the Wildcats. LSU has some extremely skilled bigs inside who were able to corral Randle and Cauley-Stein and force Kentucky to score from the midrange, which they are not good at. This may change a little bit at home, but I am still not a huge favorite of Randle in this one, and I will be fading him today. LSU has one of the best interior defenses in the land and it will take one of Randle’s top games to make value. Instead, I would look at James Young, Aaron Harrison, and Andrew Harrison here as much as I hate to admit it. Young is so inconsistent but has to be their go to scorer today for Kentucky to win. He had 23-7 last time against LSU and is definitely affordable. Andrew Harrison has been playing a bit better and I think makes a solid start here despite his previous LSU struggle. Aaron should get his as well as Kentucky is projected at 84 points, I cannot see him having another Florida game.
Other Games
Wake Forest 66 at UNC 80 – UNC players are definitely in play here. They should blow out Wake Forest with ease, so I would look at their post players in this game as Wake has a bad interior defense. McAdoo, Johnson, Meeks, Tokoto all worth looking at here. Paige is also a solid play. For Wake, I think they struggle against UNC’s length and I am not sure how they won the first meeting. Travis McKie is so cheap over on FanDuel that he would be almost my only play. Devin Thomas is solid and had a nice last game so he is in consideration.
Louisville 65 at Cincinnati 64 – I am avoiding Louisville entirely. Their prices are too high for this matchup. Cincinnati will hold them to one of the lowest point totals of the season and it will be hard for anyone to make value. That being said, I really do not like Cincy players either. Sean Kilpatrick went for 28 in their win against Louisville at Louisville and would be the only guy I would consider here outside of Justin Jackson.
Boston College 58 at Miami FL 65 – Before you throw this game out altogether on DK and DS, Miami hasn’t played a team as bad at defense as BC in a while. This game will be horribly slow but I like Garrius Adams and Rion Brown in this game. Brown fills the stat sheet and I really think he can approach a triple double even in 60 possessions. I am however throwing out all Boston College players as Miami is just too slow and too good defensively.
Florida 71 at Mississippi 64 – Really hate anyone playing Florida. Ole Miss HAS to have this game and I do not think they do without a 8-11 day from 3 from Marshall Henderson. Florida struggled against Auburn but I think they do well here. Casey Prather is pretty cheap and should have a nice game from midrange, I also like Wilbekin today as Mississippi has a pretty solid interior defense.
St. John’s 67 at Villanova 77 – Very interesting game. Obekpa and Sanchez will miss this game so give the bump to Sir’Dominic Pointer and God’sgift. St. John’s is going to be very thin at the forward position so Villanova forwards get a big bump. St. John’s has really been good lately and Villanova allows you to attack the perimeter so look at Harrison and Rysheed Jordan. For Nova, Bell has been a stud and their #1 option lately but I still like Pinkston in this one. Arcidiacono is hard to trust but could pay off his number.
Texas Tech 66 at Oklahoma State 73 – The return of Marcus Smart! OK State needs this game and I think Smart is a very good play if his price has dropped. He will be focused and ready to lead his team to victory today. I really don’t like anyone else on OK State as their salaries will have been inflated. I also don’t like Texas Tech today either.
Marquette 73 at DePaul 69 – The Blue Demons have essentially quit on coach Purnell after Melvin was dismissed from the team. The only thing good about that is that it is going to give Brandon Young a ton of shots. He isn’t going to be very efficient but taking 20 shots in a game, he will put up some points and his upside is almost unlimited. DePaul is horrible though and almost certain to lose this game by over 4 points. I like Gardner here, I also like Jamil Wilson, and maybe Todd Mayo if he is cheap enough.
Notre Dame 56 at Virginia 70 – Malcolm Brogdon is in play again on DK today but I wouldn’t use him elsewhere. Everyone on Notre Dame is off limits in this one. Don’t go near this one.
UCF 70 at Houston 77 – This should be extremely fun. I love TaShawn Thomas here, and Isaiah Sykes should also have a monster game. Danuel House has worked his way back and is a solid play. I like LJ Rose as well for Houston. Other than Sykes no one else is getting consistent minutes and I would be very careful with the UCF frontcourt.
Late Games
UCLA 77 at Stanford 76
UCLA
This could be my top game of the day. Both teams need a win here for seeding purposes and I am sure Stanford wants revenge for the beating UCLA put on them earlier in the year. Kyle Anderson is the top play of the day here, in a high possesion game against a below average perimeter defensive team he should go nuts. Jordan Adams is also a great play as he has really been playing well lately and should be able to get his looks from 3. UCLA is just a bad matchup for Stanford as they can defeat you in the midrange which isn’t Stanford’s strength. Also take a look at Travis Wear who has been fairly solid lately and couple provide some cap relief.
Stanford
Dwight Powell got massacred by Gavrilovic in the last game and had to play the rest of the game with a bandage on his head. Apparently he does not have a concussion so he should be good to go here. I like him in this game as I really hate UCLA’s inside game especially playing a zone. I think Powell in the middle of the zone is Stanford’s best chance to attack it with all of the options he creates if he catches the ball at the free throw line. Definitely take a look at Chasson Randle as well who had 18 points against UCLA in their first meeting. I do not hate any of the big 4 for Stanford and Huestis played a great game last time out against USC.
Syracuse 65 at Duke 70
Duke
We get round #2 of Syracuse/Duke in primetime tonight and it should be another good one. Quinn Cook might be back as he played 33 minutes against UNC and had a solid stat line. This hurt Thornton’s minutes but you weren’t considering him anyways. Rodney Hood has been the worst rebounder I have seen in a while. He just doesn’t fight for boards anymore and just tries to score from the midrange which is very concerning. His salary has taken a major dip but he is hard to trust here. I also don’t like Jabari Parker as much either as Syracuse should be able to take away his driving lanes with their zone. Parker was really frustrated with foul trouble in the last game; I like Anderson better tonight. Syracuse is just relentless defensively so not a great spot for Duke DFS today.
Syracuse
Tyler Ennis and CJ Fair made value against Boston College, but what in the world was the team doing? Just a bizarre upset all around. Last game against Duke it was Grant and Fair who just abused Duke inside, which I expect to happen again. Look for Boeheim to go right at Parker with Grant and Fair and use their rebounding edge against Duke. I am not expecting the monster games they had last time but they are certainly in play if cheap enough. I also like Rakeem Christmas who has been playing well inside. I would avoid Cooney and Ennis as Duke is pretty solid on the perimeter though.
Texas 71 at Kansas 81
Texas
Isaiah Taylor was awesome in a losing effort against Iowa State, and I am not sure how he wasn’t heralded as much as a top freshman coming into the year. He has almost single handedly made this Texas team a contender. His price has finally risen a bit, but is still in a decent spot against Kansas. I like Jonathan Holmes for his price tonight against KU but I am not in love with anyone else on Texas. I think they could struggle in this one. I would expect Ridley to play more than 16 minutes but his matchup isn’t great.
Kansas
Joel Embiid did not look like he was banged up at all or had any ill effects from sitting the one game. He had a very solid game in only 54 possessions against Texas Tech. This game should easily have 15 more possessions so Naadir Tharpe is in play, Wiggins is in play, Ellis is in play and Embiid should be considered as well. I really like Embiid on DK tonight for the center position as he is one of the more consistent options at center you can get. Texas’ weakness is the perimeter game so I think Tharpe could definitely pay off his number with the minutes and Selden could also be a sneaky GPP play. When Texas beat Kansas at home, Selden went nuts, Wiggins had one of his worst games and most of the team was saddled with foul trouble. This could be a different story tonight.
Other games
Temple 70 at Memphis 85 – Definitely a game where you want to look at Memphis players. Last time against Temple, Goodwin went nuts and Chris Crawford went for 9-8-8. I cannot argue with using any of the Memphis players tonight as Temple’s defense is just miserable. Anthony Lee returned last game and had a decent showing. Mark Williams was they guy who got all of the minutes for Temple. I like Dalton Pepper for value on DS today and I am looking at Will Cummings as well.
Minnesota 59 at Ohio State 67 – Not a fan of Minnesota today, just ignore them completely. For Ohio State, I think there are better value options out the but LaQuinton Ross and Lenzelle Smith have been carrying the scoring load for the Buckeyes lately.
Arizona 66 at Colorado 60 – How big would a win here for Colorado be? They would basically be a tournament lock after appearing to collapse after Dinwiddie’s injury. Problem is, Arizona is great defensively and will take away Colorado’s strengths. I may fade Johnson, Booker, and Scott who have been great values for a while. Arizona’s prices have corrected themselves although I like Aaron Gordon who fouled out ridiculously early in the last game.
Indiana 58 at Northwestern 59 – Caution – this game can be caustic to the eyes. Use safety goggles if you must watch. Just avoid this entirely.
Missouri 69 at Alabama 68 – Nick Jacobs is still on his leave of absence which left Alabama short-handed and Shannon Hale to play well. Side note – Nick Jacobs is also a porn star, which I did not know until I tried to find news about the Alabama forward. I really like Hale tonight for value against Missouri. Releford should also have a nice game. Alabama scored 48 points in the last game and will certainly score more here so there is some value to be had. Missouri is pretty easy to dissect, you have Clarkson, Brown, and Ross and no one else is worth using. Not a very solid matchup for the 3 but usually they are machup proof.