College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Jan 11th
There are just a ton of games going on on Saturday and most are afternoon games putting a ton of action in a small amount of time. There are a lot of high scoring games and a ton of value options out there today so the keys will be picking the top dollar options with the best matchups.
I will get to as many of the most fantasy relevant games as possible, but if you have a specific question, tweet me @Bronzesword or post here and I will do my best to answer. As always, stat projections are from KenPom.com, and be sure to twitter injuries right before tip to make sure certain people are/are not playing.
Iowa State 91 at Oklahoma 86
Iowa State
This should be an up and down incredibly fast paced game where everyone is in play. DeAndre Kane is most likely the highest priced guy on every site, but you cannot go wrong using him. He’s been an absolute stud this year and has put up some monster fantasy stats in high pace games. Melvin Ejim is a bit of a cheaper option and has also been solid for the Cyclones. Niang tends to get in foul trouble, but is reasonably priced for the upside, but is the one guy I may stay away completely from in this game just due to his propensity to foul. Dustin Hogue at 6-6 is the best rebounder on ISU and is basically a lock for 10 rebounds and some putbacks. I cannot fault anyone for using anyone from this game as Oklahoma has a horrible defense everywhere.
Oklahoma
When 2 of the top 30 fastest teams in the country get together, you can bet on some fireworks. It makes it fantasy gold when the two teams play 6 man rotations for most of the game as well. Along with Iowa State, I cannot argue against using any of the main players from Oklahoma. Buddy Hield should again post close to a 20-8 stat line, Cameron Clark is a threat for 40, and Spangler should bounce back from his poor game. I am really liking Spangler as he excels against shorter teams and he will be the tallest guy on the court in this game. He should also get a dip in salary after his last performance. Those are the top 3 I would target but Woodard and Cousins are also in play. Oklahoma can live with a loss to Kansas but it would be really nice for them to take out Iowa State at home so I expect them to come out firing.
Oklahoma State 80 at West Virginia 76
Oklahoma State
Kamari Murphy frustrated me again last time out, but I am still not giving up on him. I still believe he makes a solid value play against the poor inside game of West Virginia. Most of the rebounding last game came from Smart and Brown who both had really solid games against Texas. This should be a similar game against West Virginia and I would look for Brown and Smart to both reach value again. Brian Williams and Phil Forte are cheap sneaky plays which could be used but I would shy from them in H2H play. We have seen this card from Le’Bryan Nash for 3 years now where he will play an incredible game, post monster numbers, and then be completely invisible the next. The matchup looks really nice but he is so Jekyll and Hyde you never know.
West Virginia
These teams are eerily similar, although the Cowboys have better players all across the board. Staten has been a rock for Huggins this year, and should again play the entire game. He is incredible at getting to the free throw line and he makes them which could be a sign of him having a solid game against the foul prone inside of Oklahoma State. I always like Staten over Harris; I know Harris is going to jack up around 18 shots but I just cannot see Oklahoma State letting him get open too well as they do a good job at denying the 3.
Florida 73 at Arkansas 71
Florida
Florida is banged up as usual so this projection should be altered a little bit, and Arkansas is a lot better at home but Florida poses some huge value here. Wilbekin is questionable but expected to give it a go, so I would avoid him. If he can’t go or has issues, Kasey Hill should get some extra minutes and makes a nice play. Prather is out with a knee injury, and the guy most likely to step in and take his shots is Michael Frazier who I love for value today. Frazier is the 3 point shooter but I also like Dorian Finney-Smith who should get a ton of minutes. Finney-Smith is a ferocious rebounder and can score the ball from everywhere. I am not against using both guys today either. Patric Young is a bit banged up as well with some “sore knees” so he can continue being a disappointment from what the pundits described as a guy with the body of Dwight Howard his Freshman year. Also, don’t be surprised if DeVon Walker sneaks in some extra minutes as Donovan rumored the starting lineup to be Hill, Walker, DFS (best 3 letter nickname in the game), Kurtz and Yeguete. Should be a very interesting game against a fast Arkansas team.
Arkansas
Mike Anderson really annoys me. He insists on playing 12 guys every night for varying periods of time. The guys who he consistently sticks with though (lately) are Bobby Portis and Rashad Madden. If I were to use any Arkansas players it would be them as no one is guaranteed 20 minutes on this team. They play much better at home, even defeating a solid defensive Clemson team earlier in the year and scoring 74 points so if you get the Arkansas over/under at 71, fire the over.
Kentucky 73 at Vanderbilt 67
Kentucky
Luckily, Mississippi State is dreadful or Kentucky could have had problems last game. I cannot see Kentucky missing the tournament this year but they definitely aren’t as good as everyone talked them up to be. James Young is the guy that is getting it done right now, 10 rebounds each in the last 2 with 18 and 26 points in them plus some assists. He is a pretty low risk play and should dominate Siakam who will not be able to cover him. I cannot stand the Harrison twins as most people probably know by now, so I won’t recommend them even though they are usually cheap and have a size advantage against Fuller and Parker. Randle is a stud but his shot attempts have fallen off recently as did his minutes. Randle is a stud however, and if he is decently priced, you may not be able to say no.
Vanderbilt
Ouch. Eric McClellan gets dismissed from the team due to academics, and Vandy’s season has officially hit the clunker. Good thing we are playing DFS so we can take some value from this. Vandy now has 2 guards on the roster, Kyle Fuller and Dai-Jon Parker and they should get all the minutes they can handle, as last game without McClellan they both played 38. Rod Odom is also going to play almost the entire game, and has scored 20 in 2 straight. Odom is not going to wow you with finesse, but he is tough, a decent offensive player, and you can look up and realize he has 15 points and 8 rebounds very quietly. I love Damian Jones as well and I think he steps into a bigger role here today against Kentucky. Kentucky just has Vandy out manned at every position, but you’re looking for minutes value here.
Memphis 81 at Temple 75
Memphis
Another game to target here as this one should be super high scoring. Temple’s strategy will play right into Memphis’ style, and I think this could be a blowout before long, especially if Temple is without Will Cummings. Joe Jackson makes a stellar H2H play as he is good for 25-30 fantasy points on any given night, especially tonight against a fast paced Temple team. Jackson is the safest, but Geron Johnson has the most upside as he can rebound and assist very well to supplement a poor offensive game. Johnson also carries the most risk. I like Shaq Goodwin as he had a couple of subpar games but came back against Louisville well in their victory. The minutes battle between Nichols and Pellom seems to be situation dependent, and I am not messing with that, as well as not messing with Chris Crawford who has really struggled to do anything consistent in the last month.
Temple
Will Cummings left last game with a concussion, so I would expect him to miss this one as well. However, I was wrong about Joe Harris so I could be wrong about Cummings, but for the sake of this I am assuming he is not playing. Temple also lost Daniel Dingle for the year and Mark Williams has an ankle injury. I would expect Williams to play just because they need bodies but he is not in play. A min priced option would be Josh Brown who is going to get probably 35 minutes in this game alongside DeCosey and Pepper. I love all 3 as I think DeCosey and Pepper will end up playing 40 minutes and each scoring around 20. I also am huge on Anthony Lee tonight against the miniature lineup that Memphis throws out there. Lee produces big in big minutes and should get all he can handle tonight.
North Carolina 64 at Syracuse 75
North Carolina
All you can do is laugh at this point as North Carolina is putting together one of the most ridiculous NCAA tournament resumes I have ever seen. They could be the absolute worst free throw shooting team in the country as well, along with being a completely inefficient shooting team. To be honest, they just aren’t very good, but they have the defense, and the ability to gain extra possessions to keep them in the game. McAdoo is basically a horrible offensive player but he cannot be ignored in DFS lately because of all the shot attempts and rebounds he is pulling down. My gut is telling me to avoid avoid avoid against a Syracuse zone that will not let him get open looks so we will have to settle for his ugly step-back jumpers. I think Marcus Paige is the only guy to own here other than Leslie McDonald as he is the only one who can challenge the Syracuse zone with a jumper. McDonald has been struggling from the floor, which is natural, but he does have 20 point potential and at his salary cannot be completely passed over.
Syracuse
If I did not have it in the back of my mind that UNC beat Louisville and MSU, I would peg Syracuse around 20 point favorites in this one, and I am not joking. They are long, and do not give much defensively, and have the ability to take away everything that UNC does well. I love Tyler Ennis in this one as Syracuse is coming off 2 snails playing 49 and 55 possessions (eww) in both previous games. Ennis is incredible, does not turn the ball over, and should gain extra possessions from a faster paced UNC team. CJ Fair also benefits and is one of those 17-8 type guys where you know exactly what you are going to get. Unless you are rooting for only points, and only 3’s for that matter, do not look at Cooney who is just in the lineup to bink home a trey. I think Jerami Grant could struggle as UNC has the big bodies to throw at Syracuse inside, so I am not targeting him today.
Indiana 75 at Penn State 76
Indiana
Is anyone as excited about this game as I am? Desperation time for 2 Big Ten teams with tournament aspirations who are both winless in the Big 10. Indiana has not beaten a good team yet this year and Penn State cannot take many more losses. Like usual for Indiana, you get Ferrell and Vonleh as the offensive options and then a mix of Sheehey, Hollowell, and Williams taking the rest of the shots. Hollowell and Williams have been garbage in the past 2 losses so I am ignoring them today. Sheehey is an interesting gamble against a Penn State team who will allow him to get open looks. Yogi is the rock on this team who will get their points when no one else can score, but I would expect a nice bounce back game from Vonleh after he crumbled against the intense MSU defense. Depending on how much his price has dropped, he makes a solid play today. I would avoid anything else to do with Indiana.
Penn State
Is it safe to say this is a must win? At this point, PSU has the potential to only have lost to tournament teams, and have beaten St. Johns and LaSalle but really need to start winning Big 10 games. The elephant in the room here is DJ Newbill who put up a giant bagel in every category against Minnesota except for the 5 fouls he obtained in 14 minutes. The game before that he was ejected for smacking Nunn, so he has had 2 horrid games. Newbill has 40 FP potential, especially in a game like this, but where is his head right now? I will say this, he makes a great GPP play with the drop in salary, but I am still targeting Tim Frazier. Frazier is still a great play on Draftstreet around 16k as he reaches 30 fantasy points with ease in a fast paced game. Give him back an operating Newbill and we could see another 12 assists in this game. Frazier will be guarded by Ferrell who he can dominate and should. Frazier is a beast and should be rostered appropriately in a fast paced game. The other guy I am looking at is Ross Travis who pulled a houdini the game before last but came back with 18 and 13 in the last game against Minnesota. Travis is definitely in play again here today even with the height of Indiana.
California 76 at Oregon State 73
California
Wow, what a game against Oregon where Jordan Mathews went for 32 points and Cobbs went for 20 and 11 assists. Oregon State is just as bad defensively as Oregon, and while I cannot see Mathews duplicating that stat line I can see Cobbs doing about the same thing in this game. I would shy away from Richard Solomon as Eric Moreland is getting his legs back and is a fierce rim protector. The thing that is amazing about Cal is no one makes a terrible play as the 5 starters are going to get 30 minutes each. In a game against a team with a terrible defense like Oregon State, most of Cal’s players make solid plays.
Oregon State
Craig Robinson strikes again. You have to think that Collier comes off the bench again after what the Beavers did to Stanford, so that takes Collier completely out of play for me today. Eric Moreland is back, and definitely showed it with a dominating performance over Nastic and Powell in the last game. He should still be at a discount at most places and should be rostered as such. Hallice Cooke is playing big minutes and should also be considered as I expect Robinson to use nearly the same game plan. Nelson will probably again be lightly owned but is a good play in both H2H and GPPs with high floor and high ceiling. I would ignore Brandt as he seems relegated to the 12-3 kind of guy.
Mississippi 72 at Mississippi State 67
Mississippi
Ole Miss will play this game as well without Marshall Henderson, and we have 40 minutes of data to see how things went in the first go-round. They played slower, and it was Millinghaus who stepped in and got the minutes. I expected LaDarius White to get some but he continued his same role as before. Aaron Jones played a huge part in the offense and played very well. Jarvis Summers played the most minutes as expected, had a pretty terrible offensive game but was still able to put up 14-4-1. I am just going to say that Mississippi State is pretty bad and that Summers should have his way inside today. I am expecting 25-5 from Summers and would be disappointed with anything less as he usually does his damage inside and Mississippi State cannot stop anything inside. I would use caution on Millinghaus depending on how much his price rose, but he still could be a useful play. I would go again and jam Aaron Jones again as the Bulldogs are awful inside and Jones is a bigger part of the offense without Henderson.
Mississippi State
Ugh. I mean, what can you really do with a team who has no good offensive players? Craig Sword is the only guy I really like on this team but he has not been efficient. At least he gets consistent shot attempts but he is the most expensive. I would just avoid this situation all together as there are better and safer options out there.
Other teams to avoid
Georgetown: The Hoyas looked absolutely miserable offensively against a bad defensive team in Providence without Josh Smith, so what will they do against a good defensive team in Butler at Hinkle?
Rutgers: Any team facing Cincinnati gets a bump down, but especially Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights cannot shoot 3’s and that is the thing that works the best against the intimidating Cincy D. It is not a good idea to try to score inside on the Bearcats and that is all Rutgers can do.
TCU: Not only are both TCU and Baylor extremely slow, halfcourt teams; TCU refuses to score the ball. They are just a miserably awful offense, even with Amric Fields. They are against a solid defense away today so I expect a house to be built out of bricks in this game.