College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Jan 18th
There is one of the better Saturday slates of games today in college basketball with multiple high profile matchups. We are already halfway through January and before you know it, it will be conference tournament time and then the NCAA tournament.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. Make sure you check injury news as there are some questionable players for today whose status will not be decided until tomorrow.
Louisville 69 at Connecticut 70
Louisville
Looks like Chris Jones is unlikely again, making Terry Rozier again a solid play. Hancock has really stepped up since the loss of Behanan and continues to make a solid play. I do not enjoy Russ Smith’s matchup though as I think the UConn guards can give him a hard time in a lower scoring game. UConn did a great job on Shaq Goodwin and the Memphis bigs last game but Montrezl Harrell is a completely different player and should be able to get close to a double double in this one.
Connecticut
Ryan Boatright is questionable for this game due to attending a funeral for a death in the family. It appears as if his status is still up in the air right now so unless I found anything definite, I would not play him. He has been a bit of a disappointment this year for me fantasy wise, really taking a backseat to the Napier heroics. Napier is a decent play but I am really not targeting this game too hard due to it being a lower scoring game. One guy who is really interesting is Amida Brimah who is a shot blocking monster when he gets the minutes. He has been producing for Kevin Ollie’s team and should play 20 minutes in this one.
Oklahoma State 74 at Kansas 79
Oklahoma State
Marcus Smart has been on a tear lately scoring 20 in 3 straight with rebounds and assists and makes a very nice play today against Kansas in a game which should reach the upper 70s for both teams. Do not forget about Markel Brown either whose stats are just below Smart’s, so if you can get him cheaper he should produce as well. Oklahoma State’s weakness is in their frontcourt where Brian Williams and Kamari Murphy have been struggling to hold their ground. I still think Kamari Murphy will have a breakout game soon, but he just isn’t that big of a part of the offense. I am fading Le’Bryan Nash today as he is too inconsistent for my liking and he will most likely be guarded by Wiggins.
Kansas
I am picking on the Oklahoma State frontcourt here, but I love Joel Embiid’s matchup today. I think he is a near lock for 10-10 with some blocks against a shorter group. Other than the Villanova game, Andrew Wiggins has had his best fantasy output against top tier teams so I think that he could be in for another solid performance today. Both Wiggins and Perry Ellis are a bit of a risk as one or the other seems to go off in the game. Naadir Tharpe should also make a solid play on sites that have not adjusted his salary properly.
Iowa State 79 at Texas 77
Iowa State
The Big 12 is full of fast teams and barnburner games and we have another one right here. You will have to pay for DeAndre Kane but he is a super high floor guy who will get you the points especially against an overmatched Texas backcourt. He did not really appear to have any poor effects for the ankle so that should not be a concern here. Melvin Ejim had a disappointing game last time out but should improve on his 15-5 stat line from last game. Dustin Hogue has really sapped some of his rebounds and made him a worse fantasy play than last year. Niang is in a bit of a shooting slump but will shoot a ton and makes a solid play as well.
Texas
There are going to be a ton of possessions here so Texas players are definitely in play. Javan Felix has been playing a ton of minutes recently and when he is on the floor he takes the most shots out of anyone on Texas. I like Isaiah Taylor today who should play a lot and is able to contribute in multiple ways. I also like Ridley and Holmes here as they are much taller than the Iowa State players and should be able to post up Niang, Hogue and Ejim. You cannot really go wrong with Texas players as none are really expensive and they will have a ton of possessions.
UCLA 73 at Utah 72
UCLA
I like this game to be played at a bit faster tempo than the projection says here. UCLA plays fast no matter what and I like Jordan Adams here again. Kyle Anderson claims that he hates playing in the altitude and this will be an early game for UCLA. Anderson really struggled at Colorado and I think he can struggle again today. His price is astronomical right now, albeit for good reason, but Jordan Adams can provide almost the same potential for a lot less price. Norman Powell had 19 points the last game but he is way too inconsistent to trust which I find happens with most of the UCLA players as they only play 20-28 minutes per game and the shots are spread around.
Utah
I liked Utah to beat Oregon earlier this year at the Huntsman Center and they could not get that done. They then dropped 2 at the Washington schools so they really need this one against UCLA. I think Larry Krystkowiak will have his team ready to play. UCLA will play a lot of zone most likely which will cause Taylor and Loveridge to jack up a bunch of 3’s. Wright will have to drive and kick so I could see an uptick in assists but a few less points from him. UCLA essentially will let you take all the 3’s you want but that is Utah’s weakness on offense, so if Utah is going to pull this off it will depend on if they are hitting their shots.
Pittsburgh 61 at Syracuse 66
Pittsburgh
I have to laugh at this game as the best 2 teams in the ACC meet. It is hard to believe the Big East defectors are now the only teams keeping the ACC afloat and providing a huge conference matchup. Both teams are slow and intense defensively so I’m really not looking into using many guys from this game. Patterson is expensive and will find a hard time making value against the Syracuse zone. The Durand Johnson injury caused Jamie Dixon to play most of his starting 5 for the entire game so this is great news for James Robinson and Cameron Wright who are interesting value play options. I just would not get too excited as this game could end up in the 50’s.
Syracuse
Syracuse never turns the ball over and James Robinson takes really good care of the ball, which will cut out fast break points here. I’m having a hard time finding value on this roster for this game but if I had to use anyone it would CJ Fair as he will get his 15 shots.
Tennessee 68 at Kentucky 73
Tennessee
Jarnell Stokes is a walking double double, but could have problems with the Kentucky height here. I am not high on this Tennessee team going to Kentucky to play against what will be an angry Calipari team. I like Jordan McRae as really the only play for Tennessee here as neither Harrison can guard him. I would stay away from Maymon though who should also have issues against Randle.
Kentucky
What would happen in Big Blue Nation if the Cats were to lose this game too? I think they will take care of business at home, but if Tennessee is able to take away the paint with their solid 2pt defense, Kentucky has no reliable scorer from the 3 point line other than Young. I have learned that both Harrison twins are completely unreliable so I am avoiding them. Randle and James Young are your best bets here and I think Cauley-Stein rebounds really well after his foul plagued game against Arkansas. There is no way Maymon or Stokes can guard Randle and I could see either one or both getting into foul trouble early.
Oklahoma 78 at Baylor 84
Oklahoma
This is another Big 12 game that should be targeted. Oklahoma plays at a ridiculous tempo and refuses to play defense. Oklahoma struggled against Kansas State so there should be a dip in salary for Cameron Clark and Hield. Woodard and Cousins have lost time with the return of Je’lon Hornbeak so they are off my radar for today. Spangler’s price has risen due to his monster game and he faces off against the trees of Baylor so a regression is expected here.
Baylor
That was a completely awful display of basketball by Baylor against Texas Tech last game. Kenny Chery was the only one who showed up in either half. I am really liking Cory Jefferson today whose price should have dropped due to his awful game last time out because of foul trouble. Isaiah Austin was awful as well but will certainly have a better game in this one for a team who is projected to score 84 today. Royce O’Neale played a ton of minutes but still did not produce a ton as he is not heavily involved in the offense. I like Chery as well, he should make value in an uptempo game.
Penn State 74 at Purdue 80
Penn State
The Nittany Lions have been pretty miserable away from home this year and now they travel to West Lafayette into a pretty surprising projection. Frazier makes a very solid play as Purdue should not be able to stop him from scoring. DJ Newbill looked awful in his previous game against Michigan until he started driving to the hole and getting easy baskets. It may not be that easy with AJ Hammons patrolling the paint so I am not too huge of a fan of Newbill today even though he is pretty cheap. I cannot figure Ross Travis out as he will either go for 15-13 or he will go for 6 points and 4 rebounds. Pick wrong and he can cripple your team. With Hammons in the middle I really am only going to look at Frazier today.
Purdue
Purdue is expected to score 80 in this game and they are bad enough to keep this one close. I am targeting Terone and Ronnie Johnson and AJ Hammons from Purdue as they are the ones you can bet on to play the most minutes. They should all be fairly cheap as well as it’s been almost a month and a half since the Boilermakers last hit 80. Matt Painter runs 11 deep and gives significant minutes to those, so it is really hard to find value here.
USC 67 at Colorado 78
USC
What a mess of a season for Andy Enfield. We all knew this would be rough, but 2nd to last in the Pac 12 is almost a guarantee now. I really dislike them today in the Colorado altitude against a Colorado team who is trying to navigate without Dinwiddie. Byron Wesley is the only guy here who I would choose as most likely Dinwiddie would have been his matchup and now Colorado will have to try to defend USC’s leading scorer with someone else. Jacobs has trouble taking care of the ball, Pe’Shon Howard is inconsistent and who knows how many minutes JT Terrell is going to get. Even the frontcourt in Oraby and Jovanovic is random.
Colorado
We have 40 minutes of data to look at minus Dinwiddie, and it appears that Hopkins and Talton took most of his minutes. The problem is, Hopkins was awful offensively and Talton was not much better. I really like Josh Scott against USC who is allowing teams to score at will against them inside. Askia Booker should get his shots as well and makes a solid play again as he is the #1 option still without Dinwiddie. Wesley Gordon and Xavier Johnson should also gain some extra stats against a pretty speedy USC team.
SMU 78 at UCF 70
SMU
Larry Brown’s mustangs will again play 9 deep without Moreira, however Markus Kennedy will again get a ton of run. Kennedy makes a nice play against UCF here as does Nic Moore who should be able to make value in a high tempo game. Here’s where it gets dicey though as Williams, Russell and Brown start usually but Frazier Manuel and Moore take their minutes. The upside for these guys is limited in an uptempo game because of the minute distribution.
UCF
I can see most of UCF’s season going downhill here but their fantasy players still provide value. Newell is probable for this game so drop Brandon Goodwin and Daiquan Walker from consideration. Isaiah Sykes is the stud here but I have serious concerns about his ceiling. Sykes does most of his work inside the 3 point line where SMU has the best defense in the nation. Moreira’s absence hurts this a bit but SMU still does not allow people to score in the paint. This makes me nervous about using McCrory or Sykes, but not nervous enough to take them off of my radar. I think Kasey Wilson and Newell could both have big games as the 3 point shooters on this team.