College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Jan 25th
What a giant Saturday on tap today. The sites are raising the guarantees and there are some really interesting games on tap to choose from. I am going to try to get to as many games as I can that are going to be fantasy relevant today for you guys. Saturdays are the crown jewel for CBB so let’s get into it.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and although I touch on injuries here, I am doing this the night before so make sure you check injuries tomorrow before rosters lock as any questionable guys are never announced the night before.
Michigan 66 at Michigan State 71
Michigan
The Wolverines have really found their identity without McGary, and that is running the offense through Nik Stauskas. I would usually be afraid of using him against the vaunted MSU defense, but with no Payne and no Dawson, I am fairly certain Stauskas is going to get his points. I cannot see him going off for 30, but he certainly will not get you a dud. Glenn Robinson’s price is low and he definitely has the chance to make value here, however I would be wary since he has a history of disappearing in big games and he is not the #1 option anymore. Surprisingly, the combo of Horford and Morgan actually looks better than the MSU frontcourt, but they split time almost right down the middle so their minutes are limited at 20. Derrick Walton was ill in the previous game so I would expect him to get the full complement of minutes in this one.
Michigan State
I am fairly frustrated with how it seems that the Spartans continue to have injury concerns, but I am hopeful that they will be healthy by tournament time. This game should come right down to the end, but without Payne and Dawson some really big minutes and value open up for MSU. Gary Harris makes a fantastic play again as he should get all the looks he can get. Appling makes a good play as well, and I love the potential of Denzel Valentine as well. Valentine is now the best rebounder on the team and should play almost the entire game. Denzel does a bit of everything out there and can put up a monster stat line without much effort. I expect Tom Izzo to use Matt Costello religiously in this one, so load him up on FanDuel where he is minimum salary. I think Kenny Kaminsky also gets a lot of extra minutes, as MSU will be itching for some height.
Florida State 72 at Duke 78
Florida State
Both of these teams are OK with running, so neither get too big of a bump they should just play this game around 70 possessions. Aaron Thomas looks like Leonard Hamilton’s favorite guy right now and is very involved in the offense. If he continues to be cheap, I like him again in this game. Okaro White is the other guy to look at for Florida State, and I really like taking bigs against Duke especially with Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson guarding the lane.
Duke
Jabari Parker has gotten it together again, but he was playing horrible teams in NC State and Miami FL. It’s hard to argue with an offensive guy of his talent, but I think Leonard Hamilton has the defensive chops to shut him down in this game. His price has risen due to his big game previously, and while I do not think it is terrible to play him, I will be fading him today. Instead, I will be looking at Rodney Hood who should get some open 3’s and Quinn Cook who is really affordable and due for a breakout game against the extremely small FSU guard lineup. Amile Jefferson has definitely been playing better and is in play today as Coach K is going to need all the help he can get against the FSU giants.
Xavier 68 at Providence 69
Xavier
The Musketeers are led by Semaj Christon who is playing like a lottery pick right now. He is super efficient scoring in 20+ in 4 of 5 games and adding assists and a couple rebounds as well. Neither Cotton nor Fortune can stop him and he should go for another monster game today. Justin Martin has solidified himself in the starting lineup and is also playing really well. Providence has height but if Martin is still cheap he makes a solid play. Matt Stainbrook has been a rock in the middle with a real rocky patch lately, but he should produce again if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Providence
If the Friars want to legitimize themselves as a NCAA tournament option, they need to win this game against an NCAA tournament team in Xavier. You will have to pay up for Bryce Cotton but I love him here in this matchup as Xavier has been bad at defending the 3. Kadeem Batts is back to his dominating ways, and the matchup of him and Stainbrook will be key. I think Batts is able to put up double digit rebounds for the 2nd game in a row and score his share of points as well. LaDontae Henton and Tyler Harris will have size advantages on the wings and both make solid plays, although LaDontae Henton rarely gets above his 18-10 ceiling.
Oklahoma 81 at Texas Tech 82
Oklahoma
It is becoming at trend to look at Oklahoma games on Saturdays for value. While Texas Tech plays really slow, they have a horrible defense, so even with a few less possessions, Oklahoma should be able to put up some points. Je’lon Hornbeak has cut into Cousins and Woodard’s minutes so I would shy away from them here, but Spangler, Clark, and Hield all make solid plays against a Texas Tech defense who is like swiss cheese. I think Hield and Spangler are the most consistent for H2H games but Clark has the most upside as he can score 35 plus rebounds if he gets hot.
Texas Tech
It’s valuetown for Tubby’s Red Raiders today. They come in with the 309th ranked tempo, and scored 81 points against West Virginia in a game with only 60 possessions. Oklahoma does not play defense either, so this should be a really fun game with a lot of scoring. I like Toddrick Gotcher here, especially on FD, but I also really like Jordan TOlbert and Jaye Crockett everywhere. I think both are a lock for 25 fantasy points with the 40 point upside in this one. Dusty Hannahs is also an interesting option as he put up 25 on 7 for 7 3’s in the last game. I do not think that continues but he hasn’t missed a 3 or a free throw in 2 games.
Colorado 69 at Arizona State 75
Colorado
The Buffs have lost 2 of 3 full games without Dinwiddie, but both were against UCLA and Arizona and they lost by 12 and 13 in those games. This is a pivotal game for this team as they do own a victory over Kansas and over Harvard and need to continue to pick up Pac-12 wins. Personally, I think they fall just short, but Josh Scott again should make a fantastic play. Scott continues to put up numbers as the #1 option. Colorado’s stat lines should look closer to USC than UCLA and Arizona where Booker put up a solid line, along with Wesley Gordon. Both Gordon and Xavier Johnson are very cheap options who will play a lot of minutes and get scoring opportunites against Arizona State.
Arizona State
Finally Jahii Carson has got back to playing well. I didn’t like either matchup against Utah or Arizona but he still came through. I really like this matchup at home against a Colorado team missing their best perimeter defender in Dinwiddie. If Carson’s price hasn’t risen to a ridiculous level I think he makes a great play here and he should duplicate or exceed his game against Utah. Bachynski is in play today as well as he did get in foul trouble early but Sendek let him play through it and he played through it well. Jermaine Marshall had a tough time coming back and Carson was really the only guy who did anything int his game. I think it could look a lot like the Utah game so the only guy I am targeting heavily is Carson.
West Virginia 72 at Oklahoma State 87
West Virginia
West Virginia only needed 60 possessions to score 87 points against Texas Tech but the sledding might be a little bit more tough against an Oklahoma State team who can actually play some defense. One guy who is really coming on is Terry Henderson who has 16, 21, 16, 2 and 28 points in his last 5 games. The problem is that that is all he does and he is taking stats away from Eron Harris making this situationhard to decipher. Henderson and Harris are basically the same fantasy players so I would take the cheaper of the option if forced to play a WVU player. Juwan Staten is a stud and will continue to drive to the hole along with assist on the Henderson and Harris FGs. I do not like him as much as some of the other high dollar options however. I really wouldn’t look at any of the bigs as they aren’t very skilled and their minutes are compromised.
Oklahoma State
I expect the Cowboys to be focused coming off of a loss at Kansas. They return to Gallagher-Iba where they are almost unbeatable against a WVU team who allows people to shoot the 3 on them exceptionally well. Marcus Smart, Phil Forte, Markel Brown are all in play today due to that, but I also like Kamari Murphy. I think this is Murphy’s time to shine at home against a horrible frontcourt. He is still going to be cheap and will play almost the whole game if he can avoid foul trouble.
DePaul 69 at Seton Hall 76
DePaul
DePaul is a top 30% tempo team but they are also a pretty bad team defensively. They are always solid to play players against, and this game against Seton Hall should be decent for fantasy purposes even though the game may be awful. Cleveland Melvin should again be the top option on DePaul, but depending on his salary, he may not be in play. DePaul isn’t expected to blow the roof off with points, so his upside could be limited here. Brandon Young and Billy Garrett are my favorite plays however as Seton Hall is weak against guards and the 3 point shot will fall for you if you take it. No one else on DePaul I would consider using.
Seton Hall
Are the Pirates finally getting healthy? They finally get Edwin and Auda back healthy and now Gene Teague is back. All of a sudden Seton Hall has a pretty solid inside game. I really like Sterling Gibbs in this game who should have the ball in his hands a lot and Gene Teague should be another solid play. He struggled against St. John’s, but that is natural due to their proficiency at stopping the 2. Patrik Auda takes some of Teague’s value away so if you are expecting what he was doing pre injury, dampen those expectations a bit. Edwin is cheap as well and should be a top scoring option. Healthy, this team actually looks decent.
Notre Dame 73 at Wake Forest 75
Notre Dame
Garrick Sherman and Eric Atkins both proved last game that they are studs to stay in this offense. Sherman took 14 shots, scored 21 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. He is going to be expensive but makes another solid option today against a weaker Wake frontcourt. I like Eric Atkins as well, just because there really is no one else to score the ball other than the big 3. I can get behind using any of Connaughton, Atkins or Sherman, and I think Sherman gives you the most guaranteed points. Notre Dame should pass 70 fairly easy and they could be a source of value.
Wake Forest
This team is so hard to read. One game they play some really efficient offense and the next they look like they have no idea what they are doing. Travis McKie had one of his better games in his career last time against Virginia Tech, but that involved 5 3’s and perfect free throw shooting. I think he regresses back to the mean here especially against Connaughton’s defense. The guys I am looking at from Wake are Codi Miller-McIntyre as he got his season back on track with a solid 20 point 10 assist game against virginia Tech. Devin Thomas is an enigma but you cannot deny he has one of the highest upsides of anyone. The problem with him is that Andre Washington returned last game and the 7 footer may eat into some of his time, although he would take Cavanaugh’s first I would imagine.
Oregon State 76 at Washington 80
Oregon State
This should be one of my favorite games of the night. Both teams love to push the tempo and play hardly any defense. OSU got a stinker from Eric Moreland last time out but I still like him in this game as he is still underpriced at a couple of places against a really short Washington lineup. Roberto Nelson is a stud and should be rostered where applicable as he scored 26 points in a 59 possession game against Washington State. Craig Robinson insists on giving Morris-Walker more minutes than Collier which is a huge mistake in my mind, but he renders Collier useless in fantasy when he does so. Hallice Cooke had a bad fantasy game against Washington State but should rebound and have a better one in a higher tempo game.
Washington
This offense continues to click with CJ Wilcox leading the way. Wilcox has another great matchup tonight as Oregon State refuses to close out on 3 point shooters. Due to their height, they do a great job of closing out the paint, so the only guys I would use here are Wilcox, Andrews, and Williams-Goss. If you need a super cheap option on FanDuel, Mike Anderson is still there, still getting 30 minutes per game, but his upside is limited at 20 points. Washington will provide value to me but their players are pretty straightfoward as to who to use tonight.
Georgetown 66 at Creighton 83
Georgetown
I never thought that I would be looking at a game between Georgetown and Creighton and expecting a 20 point blowout. Well, that’s what we may get tonight. Providence beat Creighton with a balanced attack with skilled bigs and a point guard who could get to the line while “holding” Doug to 21 points. Georgetown has really no answer for Doug to this game, and if they go zone, the off-ball movement by Creighton will just pick them apart. Mikael Hopkins has been playing well lately and cleaning up the glass for the Hoyas so if he is cheap he could be a sleeper play. I think Starks and Smith-Rivera do get theirs today but I wouldn’t use anyone else.
Creighton
You will have to play a supreme price for Doug today, but I think he could go for 30. I think that Creighton will use Wragge’s explosion to stretch the G’town defense which will allow Doug some super easy baskets inside. I like Doug for 30 points and 8 rebounds tonight and think he is the top option on the board wherever you go. I really dislike using anyone else on Creighton because the offense is centered so much around him their upside is limited unless you have a Wragge type game.
Auburn 72 at Arkansas 87
Auburn
Auburn is just not good, but they do get the tempo bump today against Arkansas. There could be a lot of easy baskets in this game and KT Harrell and Chris Denson do benefit from this and should be decent, not spectacular plays tonight. I think that Dixon-Tatum’s big game last time against Mississippi State was a mirage and he will have a hard time duplicating that here. Arkansas gives up the 3 easy, so any guard for Auburn could find value in this one.
Arkansas
Finally they get some home cooking against a team they own. Arkansas is projected at 87 points tonight, and Auburn has one of the worst major conference defenses in the land. I would say that most everyone who gets 25+ minutes is in play tonight. Bobby Portis, Rashad Madden, Coty Clarke are all solid plays. It looks like Anderson benched Michael Qualls last game because he was so horrid in the game before, and also benched Alandise Harris. It always makes me nervous using Mike Anderson’s guys but you cannot ignore the upside here.
South Carolina 68 at Missouri 79
South Carolina
This is another game which generally wouldn’t be a good game to watch but with Missouri projected to cross the 75 point barrier we can find some value here. The 4 guys who are playing most of the game for Missouri make solid plays, Jabari Brown, Jordan Clarkson, Johnathan Williams, and Earnest Ross. My favorite of the 4 is Jordan Clarkson as he takes the most shots and has the ball in his hands the most. The hottest of the bunch of Jabari Brown, who has scored 20+ in 3 straight and is on fire from 3. Ross and Williams are the rebounders, but Williams has the least upside of the quartet as he is not involved in much of the offense except for putbacks. South Carolina has been really good at preventing the 3 so far this year, so I am going with Clarkson here.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks just allowed Georgia to score 97 points on them, which I am sure made Frank Martin angry. When things like this happen, he usually switches up his lineup and plays the guys who want to play aggressive on defense. The problem is, he is running out of talent on the bench. His rock-paper-scissors way of picking a lineup is horrible for DFS so use at your own risk. Two guys who seem to be entrenched in the starting lineup who are the safest plays are Brenton Williams and Sindarius Thornwell. Thornwell has the most upside as he is the most talented offense player of the group. Thornwell has gone for 24 and 26 plus some rebounds and assists in the last 2 and makes the best play today especially if he is still cheap. Williams is a 3 point shooter who doesn’t do much but jack up long balls. I would only think of using him in a GPP.