College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Mar 15th
Welcome to the last Grind Down before the tournament. There are championship games galore today and a few other conference semi-finals to look at. There should be any blowouts today so you’re really going to want the guy who goes off for 40 fantasy points. There will be a lot of expensive players in this game set so it may be somewhat challenging to develop a solid roster.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and I don’t think there are any injury concerns that I know of, so you should be able to be free with your selections. I am not too worried about teams on back to back nights as everyone at this point is on back to back nights.
Tennessee 60 vs Florida 64
Tennessee
The Vols profile as one of the 15 best tempo-free teams, but are “on the bubble”. If they lose this game I could see them getting an 11 seed and being a Vegas favorite in their first game. They have been playing incredible basketball and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win here. Florida has beaten them 2 times already and really hampered their scoring ability, all while allowing Jarnell Stokes to get his. Stokes is pretty much matchup proof but he is extremely expensive and there are a couple other top salary guys out there with better matchups. I hate using players against Florida’s defense especially on teams that have failed to break 60 in the 2 previous matchups.
Florida
These teams are actually really close in tempo, so don’t expect a shootout. I like Scottie Wilbekin from florida as Tennessee struggles to defend the perimeter, but really no one else. If you want to take a GPP flier on Michael Frazier I couldn’t blame you but I wouldn’t use him in H2H games. Tennessee’s interior defense is solid so I would avoid Pat Young, Yeguete, and Prather.
Pittsburgh 59 vs Virginia 63
Pittsburgh
Taking players against Virginia? Bad idea. The Virginia defense is relentless, they pressure shooters well, switch relentlessly on ball screens and are a general nuisance to play. Not only that, they play at one of the slowest tempos ever. Zanna was incredible in the last game and may be the only player I would consider especially if his price didn’t rise due to the tournament format. Other than that, I can’t see this game being very fantasy-friendly.
Virginia
The first game between these two ended 48-45 if that tells you anything. I know a lot of Virginia players are cheap but really the only one I would consider tonight is Malcolm Brogdon on DK. His price continues to be lower on there and is still a bargain even in this ridiculously slow game.
Connecticut 64 vs Louisville 70
Connecticut
UConn got obliterated by Louisville in the last game before the conference tournament so there is a revenge factor here, but I am not sure they can do it. Shabazz Napier’s price has really dropped since he was 20k on DS at one point, and is now around the 15k mark where he could make value here. Louisville is playing extremely well and a title threat at this point however so I worry about the pressure defense but Napier is a top 5 guard in the country and should be able to handle it. DeAndre Daniels had a really solid game against Cincinnati and they will need that against Louisville here. I like Napier and Daniels to both make value in this game.
Louisville
The Cards are a tempo-free monster with their only weakness appearing to be Memphis. They have blown out almost everyone they have faced in the AAC except for them. The concern is, they haven’t played anyone better than 23 in the KenPom rankings, and 23 is UConn. Russ Smith is out of his mind right now and if his price hasn’t risen after his 42 point performance, I would lock him into a lineup or two. Montrezl Harrell struggled a little bit against Houston but has had great games against UConn previously, I wouldn’t be worried. This team is operating on a ridiculous offensive level right now so Chris Jones, Terry Rozier and Luke Hancock are all in play as well.
UCLA 65 vs Arizona 72
UCLA
I guess this is the matchup that everyone wanted to see in the Pac-12 final. These two played before Brandon Ashley’s injury and it was close so I wouldn’t count out the Bruins here. I know Anderson had a really good game last time against the Wildcats but I don’t tend to make a habit of playing my top salary guys against the nation’s best defense, so I am off Anderson today. Jordan Adams has also been struggling so I’m not choosing him either. I think Travis Wear could continue to be a nice value play on certain sites as he is playing really well and they will need his midrange game today. I would avoid everyone else on UCLA.
Arizona
Arizona would be my outright tournament favorite if it wasn’t for their depth concern. If Gordon or Johnson get in some serious foul trouble early it will be a horrible sign for their defense. UCLA is going to try to speed them up so I think this is a great spot to use some cheaper Arizona players. I like Aaron Gordon a lot and think he steps up on a huge scene. I think Nick Johnson will be the go-to guy and I think he makes value. Kaleb Tarczewski should have a solid game against a suspect interior defense for UCLA and McConnell should also do well. I wouldn’t go value for Arizona today because I think the real value is in the studs.
Providence 72 vs Creighton 79
Providence
I am hoping that the Friars are in right now but they could really use the auto-bid to ease all doubts. I think this game Bryce Cotton snaps the slump, puts his team on his back and carries the Friars to a close finish with Creighton. It should end up as the Cotton/McDermott show which would be great to watch. Everyone talks about the UConn/Louisville final, but I would actually rather watch this one. LaDontae Henton has been cookin’ lately and I wouldn’t hesitate to throw him in again as Creighton will give him open looks. Kadeem Batts is ALWAYS in foul trouble but if he can avoid those fouls he will grab you a double double, and Josh Fortune is a really cheap option for 40 minutes of gameplay. The Providence starting 5 plays almost the entire game so there is some concern of fatigue here as well.
Creighton
You know Doug McDermott wants this Big East championship bad as part of the reason he stayed at Creighton was to test himself against Big East competition. He’s going to get 30+ but he’s super expensive. If you can find enough solid value plays, he makes one roster spot you don’t have to worry about but you’re gonna have to do a good job with the other spots. As usual, it’s Doug McDermott here and really no one else. Wragge is such a risky pick as is Gibbs and it seems like youre taking a 1 in 6 stab in the dark at whichever Creighton player is going to blow up.
Georgia 64 vs Kentucky 70
Georgia
Georgia pulled out the game vs Marshall Henderson in company in part because Henderson couldn’t buy a 3 point basket to save his life. Georgia needs to win the SEC title so Kentucky will get their best effort here. Still not sure what to make of Charles Mann but he is still super cheap on FanDuel he may not be avoidable. Kenny Gaines only scores the ball; I like Mann better if near the same price. Marcus Thornton is really up and down as well and a risky play. Georgia isn’t projected to score much here so I would look elsewhere.
Kentucky
Kentucky struggles against teams who control the paint like Georgia and I think it is directly related to Julius Randle. They have no one who can get them consistent buckets from the outside and need Randle for some bunnies inside. Georgia should give them problems here as long as they stifle Randle and force Young and the Harrison’s into outside shots. I am not a fan of Randle tonight even with his monster game against LSU. James Young is a risky pick as well but should get enough shots to make up for it. The Harrison twins are risky as well but their price point is pretty low to make them tempting. This isn’t my favorite team to target, but I certainly see some potential value here.
North Carolina State 72 vs Duke 81
North Carolina State
TJ Warren put up 28-8 on a solid zone defense like Syracuse which he should struggle against, so what can he do against Duke? NC State got ran at Duke, but this is a different story, and this is actually a better TJ Warren. He is definitely in play today and if NC State competes in this game it’s because Warren drops a 40 spot. Warren and McDermott are the top 2 plays, and also the 2 most expensive guys so choose wisely. I really don’t trust anyone on NC State other than Warren just like I don’t trust anyone else on Creighton, because to make a fantasy stud like those two, no one else gets enough looks to make them worthwhile.
Duke
Duke barely escaped against Clemson (which they probably shouldn’t have), and now get a completely different team in NC State. The Wolfpack have a much worse defense and a much higher tempo and Duke is the highest projected scoring team tonight. Jabari Parker is the guy you want if you’re not spending on Warren or McDermott and he may be angry after losing POY to Warren. I will be trying to roster Parker everywhere. Rasheed Sulaimon is also a solid play, as is Rodney Hood, and I can get on board the Amile Jefferson train as well.
Michigan State 69 vs Wisconsin 70
Michigan State
MSU looked dominant against Northwestern with foul trouble for Adreian Payne, but then again, who doesn’t look good against Northwestern. I guess you could say Iowa and Wisconsin, but that’s neither here nor there. Brandon Dawson finally looked healthy and should provide some nice value tonight. I like Payne if his price has dropped as he should have a solid game against the sagging defense of Wisconsin. Appling still appears tentative and isn’t the greatest play, but it’s time for Gary Harris to step up and he did so last game. I’m trying not to be too much of a homer here but I like some MSU guys for value.
Wisconsin
Oh, hello Ben Brust. The senior erupted for 29 points against Minnesota and really abused their defense getting to the hole and making a lot of foul shots. He is hard to predict and is cheap but I think the MSU defense will be able to keep him out of the lane as he only score 5 against them last time. Kaminsky should be a solid play as he will need to rebound the ball for Wisconsin and stay in the paint. Dekker should also be ok, but I’m really concerned about Traevon Jackson’s bagel yesterday and wouldn’t use him today. Also of note is that Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes got 20+ minutes each making both of them look like interesting value options.
Ohio State 64 vs Michigan 65
Ohio State
Who doesn’t love a nice rivalry rematch? The first one went to Michigan by 10 at Ohio State and I’m sure Matta is using that as motivation for his guys. LaQuinton Ross has FINALLY stepped up and is that guy for Ohio State that the offense runs through. He makes a solid play today as his price isn’t reflective of his ability. Ross went for 23-7 last time against Michigan. I really don’t understand the Aaron Craft infatuation that certain people seem to have. Yes, he’s a great defender, yes he plays with more effort than everyone else on the court and is a good decision maker, but he’s failed to develop any offensively since his freshman year, in fact, he’s gotten worse. He really hasn’t improved as a player at all in his 4 years. Granted, he makes his team much better than they would be without him, but he’s not a fantasy option at all. The only other guy I would consider here is Lenzelle Smith who has been solid as a #2 option to Ross and if Michigan tries to take away Ross, Smith can get you.
Michigan
I have to commend John Beilein on a fantastic season. To take this team and have them in contention for a #1 seed is absolutely incredible. It’s a curious team with a weak post presence, 3 6’6 wings without a post-up game and a freshman point guard. They rely completely on their outside shot and dribble drives, so any team with a solid post player should be able to do well. I am off Stauskas, Robinson, and Walton here as we all know how good Ohio State is at perimeter D. If you want to take someone I would go with LeVert who is better at garbage buckets than the other two. I wouldn’t choose Morgan or Horford either as their minutes are split and Beilein goes with whoever isn’t in foul trouble or whoever is playing well.
Baylor 76 vs Iowa State 77
Baylor
What would you expect from the Big 12 title game? Fantasy goodness of course, just like they have provided us all season long. This Baylor team is playing fantastic right now and is a legit final four threat if they continue to play like this. Cory Jefferson is a beast when he plays well and he should have an advantage against the small Cyclones; he’s a great play if his price hasn’t risen. Royce O’Neale has really been the glue guy for Baylor doing all the dirty work, picking up easy buckets, doing whatever it takes to win. Isaiah Austin has finally been playing well and also has a solid matchup here. I like Kenny Chery to play well also and rebound after his poor game. I am definitely going to try to get some Baylor players in my lineup after how they have been playing against the fast Cyclones.
Iowa State
Niang’s face was completely bloody when he got rocked in the face in the last game, but he is still probable for this game. He’s the cheapest guy of the Big 3 on Iowa State and should provide some nice value here. DeAndre Kane is the stat sheet stuffer but I don’t like him as much as I do Warren/McDermott/Parker, he is #5 in my eyes behind Cotton as well. Melvin Ejim continues to be an enigma but has monster upside if he does well. Baylor is extremely tall and gave Ejim and Niang fits in the last game they played. I prefer Baylor players here but if you want to use Iowa State guys I cannot blame you.