College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Mar 1st
We are officially into March which means that this Saturday is the 2nd to last Saturday for all major conference teams and a very big one for the bubble squads. It’s only a couple of days until conference tournaments start and the Madness is in full effect. Enjoy this time because it is gone before we know it and the best weekend of sports ensues.
I am going to split up day games and night games, although night games starting at 6pm is somewhat a bare schedule as the schedule is front loaded for the day here. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. I will touch on some injuries in tonight’s games so definitely check the ones who are questionable. Let’s hope there aren’t anymore late suspension news like Anderson and Adams on Thursday.
Day Games
Louisville 75 at Memphis 71
Louisville
This game is one of the top games on the morning schedule and definitely one you want to look at for fantasy purposes. Russ Smith has been ridiculously cheap lately on Draftstreet and definitely someone you will want to take a look at there. Luke Hancock has been scoring the ball well lately and is a big part of what Louisville does offensively and he is also in play. Memphis is pretty weak in the middle, so look toward Montrezl Harrell to be a beast inside. Harrell has dominated some good inside defenses like Cincinnati so what he will be able to do against Memphis in their 2nd game together should be a treat. Wayne Blackshear has disappeared and is no longer a fantasy option, but Terry Rozier is getting more and more playing time. I wouldn’t consider him here but he certainly is in play later down the line.
Memphis
The Tigers dropped a pretty bad game against Houston, and now have to take on Louisville at home, which does not bode well. I do not hate anyone from Memphis but I do not dislike them either. Someone will score, and I think that person is going to be Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford. Louisville with Harrell has a monster advantage inside especially against Shaq Goodwin who isn’t a true 5. I would fade Goodwin here because I think he will have some issues with Harrell. Austin Nichols has been getting more playing time lately and I think he could play a bunch in this one to try to create matchup problems with Louisville. He is a risk but I like him for value more than Goodwin. I wouldn’t use Dixon in this game but I may go with Geron Johnson. The Memphis guards except for Jackson are like a lottery so it may be best to avoid that situation.
Texas 78 at Oklahoma 83
Texas
If you want a late sweat for the day games, this is where you go. This should be a fun, defenseless, uptempo game with lots of points. Oklahoma isn’t good on the perimeter or in the paint defensively so all Texas players are in play here today. Cameron Ridley has been horrible lately but the matchup is incredible for him today against Spangler who he abused for 22 and 8 in their last meeting. I would roll the dice on Ridley today. I also like Jonathan Holmes who managed to score 15 points in 16 minutes against Oklahoma in their last meeting. Taylor’s price has risen a lot recently but he is also definitely in play today. The one guy I personally am fading is Javan Felix. He doesn’t do anything for you except for shoot 3’s and try to score. Even against a bad defense, 3 point shooting is still somewhat a lottery and he would need to make 7 or 8 of them to make value. He is a good GPP play but I would leave him off in H2H.
Oklahoma
I have been waiting for this day for a long time. Oklahoma finally gets back into the fast Big 12 teams. The Sooners have played in the 60’s of possessions in 3 of 5 and the other 2 games weren’t all that fast as well. The prices on guys like Hield, Clark, Spangler, and Woodard have dropped due to this and are in perfect position to pick off some value. Buddy Hield makes one of my favorite plays depending on value. You know he will get his shots and he usually adds a few rebounds and assists to go with it. Clark has finally been playing back to his early season form and should be good for an 18-8 type line tonight. Woodard should grab some assists especially if Texas sags on defense. The one guy that I have concerns about is Spangler as he has been struggling and will have to deal with the size of Texas down low and the solid interior defense that Texas brings.
LSU 64 at Florida 76
LSU
Typically a team a try to target, the Tigers play Florida who is almost a must avoid when teams play them. LSU rebounded nicely from their crushing defeat to Kentucky with a blowout win over Texas A&M but now have a really tough task at Florida. Jarell Martin has really been playing well and if his price hasn’t risen I would definitely look at him today, but I am off Mickey and O’Bryant today. I may look at Coleman or Hickey but probably not. Florida takes away the paint so well, and that is where LSU’s strength lies. I really do not see how LSU gets enough production down low to keep this one close.
Florida
LSU also takes away the paint really well, essentially as good as Florida’s, which makes Florida’s 3 point shooting imperative in this game. I am not going to play Patric Young as I saw what LSU did to Julius Randle in both games he played them and they essentially neutralized him. I have no doubt they can do that to Young and Yeguete here. I truly believe the value lies in Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier. Both are going to need to shoot it better from the outside to give Florida a chance to win this game. LSU is a more uptempo team so give Florida the bump, and the previous slow games will bring Wilbekin and Frazier’s salary down for you to use.
Other Games
Miami (FL) 59 at NC State 63: TJ Warren has been somewhat matchup proof during this year, and is one of my favorite players but I would really consider fading him today. Miami is essentially the slowest major conference team and they play solid defense. I cannot see a scenario without 2 overtimes where Warren makes value. He’s going to shoot a lot and play a lot but there just isn’t enough time. Rion Brown and Garrius Adams have been solid for Miami and have another interesting matchup. Also Erik Swoope the senior is getting end of year playing time from Larranaga and makes an interesting min price play.
Vanderbilt 58 at Tennessee 67: I am not on Tennessee at all today. I am going to be avoiding them completely because just like Larranaga, Stallings knows how to use what he has to win, and generally that is by slowing the game completely down. Vandy’s defense is solid and I would be surprised if Tennessee hit 70 points here. Vandy keeps games to 60 possessions which doesn’t bode well for the Vols fantasy value. On the Vandy side, you beat Tennessee by making shots on the perimeter, so Kyle Fuller should be a solid play and Dai-Jon Parker might be a good gamble as well as he has been playing well.
Cincinnati 59 at Connecticut 62: This will definitely be an interesting game. Cincy is going to try to bog this game down and play under 60 possessions. UConn may not have a problem and may oblige as their last meeting was 62 possessions. Sean Kilpatrick is the only guy I would choose from this game as he will still shoot the ball 20 times and is the only guy on the team who can score. Justin Jackson possibly but he hasn’t been as big of a stud lately. Shabazz’s price is too high for his upside today and there really isn’t anything on UConn that makes me believe they can have a solid fantasy day agains the Cincy D.
Syracuse 53 at Virginia 58: Two teams who love to slow the pace and play defense. This is going to be ugly, and very low scoring. I am just throwing this one to the side for DFS, but I will be paying attention since it has major ramifications in the ACC.
Mississippi State 65 at Missouri 80: Finally a game to target Missouri. The Bulldogs’ defense is just so bad inside so Earnest Ross and Jordan Clarkson should be able to get whatever they want inside. I also like Jabari Brown and the big 3 should roll in this game. I see no reason why you cannot play 2 of these guys and be successful. Mississippi State is just bad. I can see going for a hail mary with Craig Sword in a GPP but you just do not have success by taking Bulldog players regularly.
USF 68 at Rutgers 73: USF is DEAD LAST in 3 point shooting in the nation and it’s not even close. Rutgers’ weakness is the 3 point shot and they actually have a decent inside defense. The only guy who can reasonably shoot the ball on USF is Victor Rudd who should get all the opportunites he can handle. I really like him in this game. Rutgers blasted USF last time behind Jack’s 31 and I think he could have another solid game inside. Myles Mack is also in play for me here as after the loss of Collins, this USF team could have the worst group of perimeter players I have ever witnessed.
Colorado 66 at Utah 72: My man crush on Utah has not given up on their tourney hopes. They need to win out and pick up a couple in the Pac-12 tournament but I still think they can do it. They play better at home and have Colorado who has righted the ship after losing Dinwiddie. Colorado’s defense is bad against the 3 pointer which isn’t Delon Wright’s strong suit. I still like Wright in this game but I would give Loveridge a look. Loveridge was awful last time but he went 0-5 from 3 and was in a slump. Wright had a solid game against Colorado last game and is definitely a stud. This game isn’t slow but it won’t be fast so be careful taking players here.
North Carolina 73 at Virginia Tech 63: Va Tech is so miserable offensively, it’s ridiculous. The bright spot has been Trevor Thompson who really played well against the weak Duke interior. The DFS problem you will run into here with the Tar Heels is they are coming off 2 fast games, playing a snail at a snail who is much better on defense than offense, and salaries will be high. Paige’s salary is sure to have risen but he is one of the safer options on the board today. I think McAdoo could also have a nice game and rebound from his previous duds but I am not on UNC like others are today.
TCU 65 at West Virginia 79: Keep an eye on Amric Fields’ status as if he misses the game, Karviar Shepherd makes a fantastic play against the weak Mountaineer interior. Kyan Anderson is a high volume stud but will be expensive on a losing team, so be careful with that. I love Juwan Staten here and could be my favorite play on the board. TCU cannot defend the interior especially without Fields and Staten will just drive the paint and score at will. I would bump down Harris and Henderson a little but I do not hate them, I just think this matchup will play into Staten’s hands.
Night Games
Kansas 76 at Oklahoma State 75
Kansas
This is the biggest game of the night and has major tournament ramifications. Kansas has found a way to be very balanced on offense which is reinforcing their chance as title contenders. Perry Ellis has really fallen off the playing time wagon and is not an option as long as Kansas is health in my opinion. Selden, Wiggins, and Embiid play almost the entire game and are my 3 favorite options on Kansas. Tharpe is an extreme risk but is cheap enough to allow you to roster other studs and win a GPP if he blows up. OK State profiles decent defensively but Embiid definitely has the chops to make an incredible matchup problem, as he had 8 blocks last time against this team.
Oklahoma State
Marcus Smart has played fairly well since coming back, but his shooting is still a problem. He has monstrous upside and played great against Kansas last time out. I am going to be trying to fit him in here because I think he can go for 40-50 fpts today. Markel Brown’s price is a little too high so I will be avoiding him, but Le’Bryan Nash should have got some relief after his miserable foul disaster in the last game. Nash might be a solid play here as well. Kamari Murphy is cheap but I don’t like his matchup against Embiid.
Iowa State 69 at Kansas State 71
Iowa State
Finally a game where I can fade Iowa State completely and feel OK about it. Kane, Niang, and Ejim are all absurdly priced and play a tough defensive team away from home in a game which will be played at a low pace. I can definitely see none of the Cyclones making value here, as K-State matches up pretty well with them. I am going to recommend just fading this entire team as there are better values out there.
Kansas State
The curious case of Shane Southwell will rear it’s head today. He is too talented to get a bagel in 20 minutes, but how can you trust him? He’s going to be ridiculously cheap and was a solid option earlier in the season but I think he is too risky to play here. If he plays more than 20 minutes, Nino Williams returns to the bench and is a non option. I think Marcus Foster plays a lot better against Iowa State just like he did last time and is definitely in play here. I think Gipson is in play as well against the shorter Iowa State team. Everyone else on K-State just makes me so nervous I do not want to play them.
Houston 76 at Temple 79
Houston
This game reminds me of the LAL/SAC game last night where it will be two teams who like to play at a high pace and refuse to play much defense. You are definitely going to want exposure to this game and I may take 3, 4, or 5 players from this one. I love Danuel House, I love TaShawn Thomas, and LJ Rose is also another solid value play. Those are the 3 guys from Houston that I will try to get in my lineups. Temple is bad defensively all around and should be able to keep this one close at home.
Temple
Temple has been through the defensive ringer in the AAC recently, so their prices are all so low. Watch Anthony Lee’s status for tonight, he did not dress against Louisville and this toe injury seems to really be bothering him. Unless you are on a late-swap site I would really avoid him. Mark Williams makes an interesting punt option but I think the value in this game is with Dalton Pepper, Quenton DeCosey and Will Cummings. All 3 in my mind make solid options in a game which could reach 80 for both teams.
Other Games
Mississippi 65 at Texas A&M 66: Definitely a game where I will stay away from Ole Miss players, as A&M likes to play very slow, but I would look at Antwan Space and Jamal Jones for A&M. They have been solid and Jones is the best scorer on a team devoid of them. Alex Caruso is another interesting play but every time I look around he’s fouling out, and he really cannot score, just assist.
Kentucky 76 at South Carolina 68: We had our random Willie Cauley-Stein blowup last game, but does anyone think it happens again? One thing that seems certain is that he has won the job back from Dakari, so I would use him with a little more confidence if still that cheap. Randle should be solid in this game against a bad SC frontcourt, but I wouldn’t play the Kentucky guards here as I think there are better options out there. SC’s season has hit the bottom here, and even Sindarius Thornwell isn’t producing. The only guy that I would consider from there is Brenton Williams but he is volatile with his 3 point shooting.
California 69 at Arizona State 75: Cal is coming off a thrashing by Arizona and will need to get back on track to risk falling to the double digit tournament seeds. One guy who is really cheap and plays the whole game is Ricky Kreklow who is a nice value tonight. Solomon has been bad lately and I would avoid against Bachynski today. Justin Cobbs is going to need to have a big game and he is definitely in play. For Arizona State, Jahii Carson is play good when it matters and is taking over games late. He should make a solid play, and I think Bachynski breaks out in this game, especially for his miniscule price over at FanDuel. He has so much upside with his block potential, if he stays out of foul trouble he can get you 40 or 45.
Minnesota 65 at Michigan 74: Michigan barely escaped against Purdue and now has to play a reinvigorated Minnesota team who is looking for a win. Minnesota’s shooters are hot here, but the Gophers play to the tempo of their opponent. Michigan is a horrible tempo team so I would expect this game to be a bit low scoring. I still think Andre Hollins is the better play even though he had a poor game last time out. He will be cheaper than Austin and Matheiu as well. I think Matheiu makes an interesting play as he has been solid lately and you can drive on Michigan. Minnesota’s interior is a question because Eliason, King, and Walker are now all splitting minutes. Stauskas appears to be heating up again and could provide some solid value here, and Glenn Robinson has been pretty good lately for a poor price. The star recently has been Caris LeVert and he is your least risky option.