College Basketball Grind Down: Sweet 16
While we all recover from the best extended weekend in sports, we still have a bunch of premier matchups this weekend to deal with. Most of the big events are over, however we still have the FanDuel Second Chance running and the 50k Madness over at DraftKings which still has seats at the time of this writing. This will be the last edition of the Grind Down for this year, and the plays will be centralized for the DraftKings pricing, so take heart Grinders and so long CBB Grind Down until November.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and for next year I will be looking into a few more statistical sites and more code to juice up the format. For now, it’s just the same old format with lots of text!
Dayton 67 vs Stanford 69
Dayton
This game ranks right in the middle of the tempo games for the Sweet 16 matchups. Dayton will roll out their usual 8-9 man rotation making this team tough to pick anyone from. This team is really balanced in their scoring effort which makes guys really difficult to pick. Stanford has size inside and has been running a zone which has been very effective in the tournament, making Dayton’s 3 point shooting imperative in this game. Devin Oliver and Dyshawn Pierre are the two most used guys, but it’s Jordan Sibert at 5,000 that is the upside play in this game. I may avoid these guys entirely, but I think the best GPP play is Sibert if he’s able to knock down 6 3’s.
Stanford
It’s really cool to see these guys have this success in their Junior and Senior years as I watched them a ton in the last 2 years. Stanford doesn’t have a ball handler and really struggled against the Kansas press as Chasson Randle is more of a 2 guard than a point. Randle should play the entire game and should chuck up about 15 shots in this one, and should score around 20 points. The problem is he doesn’t really contribute in many other categories. Randle is a scorer first and foremost, so if you want him to make value at 7,400 you will need him to score 25+ which I am not sure he can do in this game. Dwight Powell is one of the most frustrating players in this game as he will be the most talented guy on the court. However, he has an issue where he can’t stay on the court because he has foulitis. If you can keep Powell on the court for 25 minutes he will certainly make value at 7,000 and makes one of the better plays even in a lower tempo game. Josh Huestis is cheap as well but he has struggled lately. He is a great defender and can do so without fouling so I would expect him to get time on Oliver if they aren’t in the zone. The zone has somewhat hurt his rebounding ability but he still crashes the class with abandon. Not a terrible play at 6,100. DraftKings has finally raised the price of Nastic to 3,600 after he posted a 16 point game in the first tournament game and kept it at 3,600 here. Nastic played about as good as he could (9-11 from the field and not fouling out) and still only managed a top score of 16 points. Center is bland for this game so he is in play but be careful.
Baylor 68 vs Wisconsin 70
Baylor
The Bears have played as well as anyone recently, and have a great chance at taking out Wisconsin here. They have size, they rebound, and they really score the basketball well. Wisconsin’s defense is solid, however this is not one of Bo Ryan’s best defensive teams. The guards aren’t quick enough to keep other guards from driving which in turn causes Kaminsky and Dekker to cheat and cover the lane which leaves guys open for three. Brady Heslip comes to mind when you think about this and as a top 5 shooter in the nation has the chops to knock down those open 3’s. Wisconsin’s defense sags and allows you to shoot the 3 so guys like Isaiah Austin, Kenny Chery, and Heslip are all in play here. It’s tough for me to play Heslip however as he is the type of guy who could completely ruin your team but I may put him on a few. Isaiah Austin makes your top center play today as he has consistently been in the 20 fantasy points for a while and is playing his best basketball. The most intriguing thing to me is the offensive rebounding battle where Baylor is one of the best, and typically Wisconsin gives you one shot and done. I would avoid Rico Gathers just because of that as a ton of his points come from those offensive boards. I would also be careful with Cory Jefferson as his big games usually result in some tip-slams and crashing the offensive glass. One matchup I love in this game is Royce O’Neale at 6,100 against Josh Gasser. Gasser doesn’t have the strength, quickness, or height to match up with O’Neale who is why the Bears have been playing so well. If Ryan doesn’t move Hayes into the lineup to deal with O’Neale, Royce could have a monster game.
Wisconsin
Baylor is going to zone Wisconsin as that is what they have done all year, but Bo doesn’t really care. His team sets up well for a zone offense as they will drive and kick for 3 and Brust, Kaminsky, Dekker and Gasser can really knock them down. I like Kaminsky in this one again but the real gem I think is Sam Dekker at 6,100 who should pay off his value. This game is right around the same pace as the previous game so not too many people make great plays. I think Gasser is an extreme risk as he isn’t as involved in the offense as many others and may give up minutes to Hayes to match up with Baylor’s size. One thing you can be sure of, is that Kaminsky and Dekker are going to get as much run as possible.
UCLA 66 vs Florida 71
UCLA
UCLA has played Arizona twice who has a better overall defense than Florida and done pretty well against them. The problem against Florida is that they will really get up on the ball and pressure you and Kyle Anderson is prone to turnovers when handling the ball. If UCLA is able to get the ball up the court, they pose an interesting issue for Florida as they have size all over the court that Florida has only seen in Kentucky, however this UCLA team can all knock down shots. Powell, Adams, Anderson, LaVine, Alford, and the Wear twins can all effectively bomb from outside which is going to pose a matchup issue for Patric Young and Will Yeguete who are both used to staying at home. I expect extra minutes for Tony Parker down low who makes an interesting center play at 3,500. One guy I am really not targeting as my high salary guy is Kyle Anderson. 9,800 is too expensive for a guy who has somewhat struggled to produce 40 point fantasy performances down the stretch, not to mention he will be bruising inside against a man in Patric Young and other solid rebounders in the middle. Florida has one of the best defenses and I think anyone they put on Anderson will be able to slow him. If you want a UCLA guy I think you go for Jordan Adams at 7,800, although he doesn’t make a great upside play either. I would fade LaVine as he has looked terrible lately. It might be best just to pass on UCLA against one of the top defenses and slowest tempos.
Florida
As bad of a matchup fantasy-wise it is for UCLA, it’s great for Florida. UCLA will turn you over but they aren’t very solid defensively and they allow you to shoot open shots when you get the chance. Wilbekin at 6,400 is the top salary and he isn’t a terrible play against what I expect will be a zone from the Bruins. I don’t really like Prather if the Bruins come out in a zone because you need to be able to knock down shots and he does a lot of work around the rim; I think UCLA can hamper that. The guy I am looking at here for an upside game is Michael Frazier who should be able to get some good open looks against the UCLA zone and pay off his 5,300 price tag. Patric Young is your #2 center option in this game and is a solid one at that, he should have a nice rebounding game pushing Anderson off the block.
San Diego State 56 vs Arizona 61
San Diego State
These are two of the top defensive teams in the land and also two of the slower teams in the land as well. This game is pegged as the lowest scoring of the Sweet 16 and should be just that. It is not a good place to pick your players from but if you must have some Aztec breakdown here goes. Xavier Thames you should have noticed is the only shooter on the team and when he gets hot, he’s a great play. The problem is that Nick Johnson is an all world defender right now and should be able to lock Thames down unless SDSU is running some sharp ball screens and Arizona isn’t aware; 8,400 is way too much for him in my eyes. Dwayne Polee has really emerged as a secondary scorer to Thames and has started to play a lot more minutes. DraftKings has raised his price to 5.5k which I think is right above where he will hit in value. Polee should still struggle against the Arizona defense, and I would only use him on other sites if he is near minimum salary. Josh Davis is an interesting play at 5,800 as he doesn’t rely on scoring to get his fantasy points. Davis can rebound with the best of them and has a chance to pull down double digit today. He is a risk though because he is an offensively offensive player, so be careful against Arizona. Winston Shepard has been terrible lately and actually only played 15 minutes in the last game; he is a clear avoid to me. Skylar Spencer is an interesting play as they will need him out there to defend the size of the Wildcats. He is minimum salary with a chance for some putbacks.
Arizona
As this game pits two of the best defenses against each other, not even Arizona can look solid as the favored team. SDSU is long and intelligent defensively, and can stop anyone which has really carried them to wins this year. I would totally avoid TJ McConnell as he will try to facilitate in this game and not score in my opinion, which leaves Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon at 7,700 and 8,000 respectively. I think both are a bit overpriced here as this will be a low possession, defensive game and Arizona will most likely use a balanced approach to scoring here. Gabe York makes an interesting play at 3,600; while I don’t think he will have a good game, he has been pretty consistent getting in double digit point games and with not a lot of value plays on the board, could save you some salary for 30 minutes and a chance to produce. If there is one weak part about SDSU, which there really isn’t it would be offensive rebounding which Rondae Hollis-Jefferson excels at. RHJ played a solid game last time out and should get all the minutes he can handle as he matches Arizona up well.
Tennessee 66 vs Michigan 65
Tennessee
KenPom really likes Tennessee, and with good reason. The Vols have played absolutely out of their mind in the last part of the season since losing to Texas A&M. Their only close loss was to Florida in the SEC tournament. I am taking Tennessee to win in this game as I think they match up really well with Michigan and have been playing the best basketball out of anyone. Jarnell Stokes is an absolute monster and has been playing as such going for 43-32 in his last 2 games. The problem is his price has risen to 10,000 and if you can’t find any value plays it’s going to be tough to get him into your lineup. Josh Richardson at 4,900 should be one of the highest owned guys as he has really been playing out of his mind lately with 30, 26, 32 in his last 3 games. Watch out though as it isn’t the greatest matchup for him as the Wolverines do a solid job of defending the perimeter. Jordan McRae had a stinker last time out but is the best scorer on this team. He is a still a risk for 7,300 as this isn’t that great of a tempo game. Jeronne Maymon sits there at 6,000 and has a great matchup against the inept bigs of Michigan. It’s a little high for his price, but I think he has a solid game as Morgan will have to stay on Stokes which leaves no one else to guard Maymon. Antonio Barton is a real fun guy if you like to play russian roulette as he will get his shots but many times will miss all of them.
Michigan
I hate this matchup for the Wolverines and think they could run into a buzzsaw here. One guy I really like in this game is Jordan Morgan at 4,300. Like McGary last year, somehow Beilein’s bigs step their game up in the tournament and Morgan has done just that. Beilein has been raving about Morgan’s leadership qualities and I believe will get him 35 minutes in this game as long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble. They need Morgan to play his best as they really have no one else who can defend Maymon or Stokes inside, potentially not even Morgan. His price is so cheap I may be all over him in this one. I don’t like Derrick Walton even though Tennessee’s weakness is against the 3 because he will be against some really athletic guards in Richardson and Barton and hasn’t been playing that well lately. Stauskas played well against Texas, but Tennessee is an entirely different story. McRae and Richardson are big guards who will be able to close out on his 3’s and force him into mid-range jumpers which should effect his rhythm. I don’t like him at 7,600 here. I do think Glenn Robinson at 5,600 could provide value as he has been right around 20 fantasy points for a while, and does a lot of good garbage work which is what Michigan is going to need to beat Tennessee. I would also rather roster LeVert than Stauskas here.
Connecticut 75 vs Iowa State 74
Connecticut
Another game where the low seed is favored by Ken’s rankings, and not counting the lack of Niang. This should be a very nice game for Connecticut players, and you should definitely be targeting this game. Napier is at 9,100 and I want him over anyone else. Napier is one of the cheaper top options and actually my top option on the board today. Another great play in my opinion is DeAndre Daniels who is cheap, but inconsistent, but should be relied on a ton in this game as no Niang presents and interesting challenge for the Cyclones on how to defend Daniels. Ryan Boatright also makes a solid play as I am not convinced that Monte Morris is a solid defender in any right. Both teams do a solid job of defending the paint, so whoever makes the outside shot is going to win. Giffey, Kromah, and Brimah are just too inconsistent to use in my opinion.
Iowa State
DeAndre Kane again makes a solid play here but I think I am going to be fading him in a lot of games. His price is high and we saw his ceiling against North Carolina. Kane does most of his work around the rim where UConn holds people to 41%, the 8th best in the nation. UConn has a lot of solid rim protectors so Kane is going to have to make shots in this game to score which I don’t think he can with any regularity. Instead, I am going to go hard on Monte Morris at 4,600 and Naz Long at 3,400. Long didn’t really see an uptick in minutes last game because of Niang’s injury, but this game he might as Hoiberg should look for shooters to defeat the UConn defense. If you can’t decide between Ejim and Kane, like I noted above I am not too big of a fan of Kane in this game (I’m a huge fan of him in general), but I would go Ejim. One interesting thing of note is that Daniel Edozie received 16 minutes against UNC and pulled down 4 rebounds. He’s 3k and is a play like Skylar Spencer; if he can get some put back dunks, he might be able to pull a stunner.
Kentucky 68 vs Louisville 73
Kentucky
Louisville really opened as 5 point favorites? That really surprises me considering how good Kentucky has looked and validated that with their win over Wichita State. However, KenPom has this game as a 5 point margin so what do I know? That game was one of the highest-level games in college you will see, with both teams shredding top-25 defenses. Julius Randle is a special player, but he is going to have a monster matchup with Montrezl Harrell. This should be an absolute treat to watch as both are headed for solid NBA careers. I think Randle puts together a solid game but he’s kind of hard to use at 8,700 without some solid value plays. I really don’t see using Dakari Johnson or Cauley-Stein as neither have been very good or involved much in the offense recently. Louisville really defends the perimeter well so Andrew and Aaron Harrison could both be headed for a down game. Both Harrison’s have a really low ceiling and I am going to shy away from them today. I am also probably going to shy away from James Young but outside of Randle I think he makes the best play on Kentucky.
Louisville
Kentucky won’t turn you over, so Russ Smith can thank his lucky stars that he shouldn’t turn it over 8 times again. I really like Russ in this game and at 8,400 I think you can fit him in with another stud, or play balanced with Russ in their. I like him for a line like 25-7-3 as this is the game he is going to be amped for and really play well. Montrezl Harrell has posted double doubles in 3 straight and if you want a guy for a little cheaper than Russ for almost the same ceiling, you can use Montrezl here. I don’t like his matchup as much as Russ’ matchup against the Harrison twins but I still like him to hit a double double here. Hancock shot 12 3’s in the last game against St. Louis, is cheap at 5,600 and he comes to life in March. I like his matchup here as well and with the 3 point bonus on DraftKings I think he could be a solid play. I would also watch Chris Jones as he could be a contrarian play that pans out in this one, as when Russ doesn’t score, Jones seems to score.
Michigan State 64 vs Virginia 62
Michigan State
I am most likely not going to be taking a lot of MSU players in this one. All season I have avoided Virginia beacuse of their slow tempo and their solid defense and this doesn’t change now. The top 3 salary guys in this game are Payne, Harris, and Dawson, and all 3 are going to struggle to make value against Virginia. The Cavaliers do everything well on defense and are extremely hard to defeat. I have watched a lot of Michigan State basketball and I really expect Izzo to press in this game and try to pressure Perrantes, Brogdon, and Harris into some cheap turnovers and some easy baskets. I think Payne will present somewhat of a matchup problem for the Hoos and makes the biggest upside play here. I don’t like Dawson because Virginia rebounds so well especially on the offensive glass. Appling hasn’t been good at all and his 5,400 price tag is way too much, but Harris is fairly cheap at 7,100 and should be the focal point of the offense. This isn’t a team you should be targeting for fantasy success even though they very well might win this game.
Virginia
MSU is going to give Virginia a bit of a tempo bump but the MSU defense still hasn’t played well. This should equate into some solid value for Virginia players. I really like Brogdon at 6,600 and I think he is one of the safest mid-range plays on the board today. I think Brogdon gets to 28 fantasy points fairly risk-less. Anthony Gill has been, uhh, fantastic for Virginia lately, but his minutes played still give me a concern and he’s more expensive than Akil Mitchell who Virginia will need on the court for his defense. I still like Mitchell better but at this point I couldn’t fault you for going Gill. Harris has been fairly solid recently for 5,700 and Perrantes at 4,100 plays almost the whole game. There is a lot of value to be had on this Virginia team and even though this doesn’t look like the greatest spot to use them, they might be the difference in who wins the 10k on DK.