College Basketball Grind Down: Thanksgiving Edition

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-11-28 07:11:24

Everyone thinks of Thanksgiving as a football day, but College Basketball has some great matchups as well. While there are not a ton of games, we have a bunch of major conference matchups making for some pretty worthwhile slates on every site that offers CBB. I might sneak away from the family room where football will be on to catch some of these games instead of watching the Lions lose again on Thanksgiving. Anyway, lets get right to it.

All stats courtesy of kenpom.com

Oklahoma State T: 74.0

Not much has changed in the Oklahoma State stats since last article, and obviously Marcus Smart still runs this offense, especially with backup PG Stevie Clark being suspended. Markel Brown had a giant game last time out but he is still a bit of a risky play as his price will have skyrocketed. I have this strange feeling that Le’Bryan Nash is going to have one of his solid games in this one. He faces off against the inexperienced Purdue wings, is rebounding the ball at an incredible rate (better than Cobbins, Murphy or Williams) and the only reason his stats have not been better is due to his propensity to commit fouls. Do not get me wrong, he is still a risk, but I believe there is a ton of value to be found with him. Brian Williams is a pretty steady lower tier performer, but Cobbins could make a sneaky play against the incredibly foul prone Hammons if he is minimum salary. Oklahoma State has one of the highest projected totals of the night so taking multiple from this game is not out of the question.

Purdue T: 73.4

Purdue is undefeated, but really have not produced any fantasy stars. They play pretty fast, however even their top minute getters are not even playing 70% of available minutes. The only guy I myself am thinking about playing today is AJ Hammons. Hammons is a great talent at 7’0 but as noted is not playing very many minutes and usually has issues staying out of foul trouble. If he can stay on the floor, he has a great shot to dominate the garbage post players of Oklahoma State. He is definitely a major risk and potentially only a GPP play. Terone and Ronnie are the only other two I would consider from Purdue but they have to go up against Smart and Brown today so I am really not feeling them although someone is going to have to score for this team to get to 70 points tonight.

Missouri T: 70.2

I did not see Jordan Clarkson taking 33% of Missouri’s shots before the season started, but here we are and he appears to be the first option for the Tigers. Along with taking a ton of shots, he is also playing a good amount of minutes and producing assists. Clarkson is definitely in play today against Sobolewski who is just not quick enough to deal with Clarkson. I also like Jabari Brown who is a dead eye shooter and playing over 90% of the available minutes. Freshman Johnathan Williams is picking up the rebounding slack where the other Tigers lack and makes a great play against the horrid interior defense and rebounding of Northwestern. Ross and Rosburg I would not consider unless they are almost near minimum salary.

Northwestern T: 64.6

Northwestern is a team who we hear about every year trying to make the tournament and they never do. I think they are still one or two pieces away from the tournament as Olah is not good inside and neither is Lumpkin. The team really revolves around Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb as shown by the amount of minutes they are logging this season. Crawford is the better option here as he rebounds, assists and scores and has been completely underpriced in the early season. JerShon Cobb is still waiting to have a breakout game but he is going to make some fantasy owners happy at some point this season. I like Crawford’s matchup against Clarkson or Brown better than Cobb’s matchup against Ross but either makes a decent play. Dave Sobolewski was one of my favorite cheap guys to play last year but really has not done much whatsoever this year and I am not inclined to roster him unless he proves he can score better.

Xavier T: 68.6

Xavier is a team that I feel most people have forgotten about after last year. They brought back Christon who is their best player and scorer and is a good play most everywhere. Dee Davis should be underpriced as he missed the first couple games of the season but now is getting the run. The rest of the team is hard to gauge has Xavier runs a 4 small guard rotation with Randolph, Davis, Davis, and Christon. Their bigs are also hard to judge although Stainbrook is the mainstay. If Stainbrook plays a ton of minutes he has a great shot at putting up some really efficient numbers. I am not a big fan of Justin Martin especially going up against Aaron White, so I am not considering him today. Iowa plays at a fast tempo so guards that like to run like Dee Davis and Christon should have good games.

Iowa T: 74.1

Finally Iowa will potentially get a test. I had Iowa as #4 in the Big 10 to start the year, behind Wisconsin, MSU and Ohio State, and they are proving me right so far by immolating everyone they play which has skewed the minutes numbers. I love Devyn Marble today and I also love Aaron White as both are underpriced due to getting pulled early in games that were not close at all. I expect this game to stay fairly close, enough for Marble and White to play 35 minutes each. White is a great rebounder when given the chance, and I think Iowa matches up best with Xavier when they go to a 3 guard lineup with Clemmons/Gesell/Marble on the court against the Xavier guards so White will be forced to rebound and is going to be in all of my lineups today. Uthoff is very hard to read as he has played a bunch of minutes but has played 2nd half minutes after Iowa has blown people out, so he is a bit risky in my opinion. I expect Woodbury to start in this game and Basabe will get about 15 minutes as well so I am just not sure of the impact Uthoff will have. Marble is the go-to scorer and will be relied on a lot this game, and he is underpriced almost everywhere as well. Gesell and Clemmons have minimal upside but a decent floor, yet I would only consider them if really really cheap.

Kansas T: 70.8

This game is the most likely to be a blowout of all of the games today. Wake Forest just is not that great, and Kansas has better talent all over the floor. Embiid is really coming into his own and if he is still cheap makes a solid play. Wiggins will get his 17-8 but has limited upside in case of a blowout, I do not like Selden against Miller-McIntyre, and Tharpe is a solid play for assists but does not take a ton of shots so his upside is a bit limited as well. I like Ellis who is having a great season and will continue to lead the Jayhawks in scoring, and no Jayhawk makes a terrible option today against the overmatched Deacons.

Wake Forest T: 72.6

Wake Forest fans will probably have more to complain about after this game unless the Demon Deacons can find some way to keep it close. the only two guys I would consider here are Codi Miller-McIntyre and potentially Devin Thomas. McIntyre is the best all-around player that Wake has and is my odds on favorite to do most of the scoring. Devin Thomas is one of the nation’s best unknown rebounders, and I compare him a bit to Andre Roberson from Colorado last year. I worry about Thomas matching up with Embiid and Ellis going for rebounds, and Kansas may not miss a ton of shots so I am really shying away from Thomas here. Travis McKie is too inconsistent and will be matched up against Ellis, Coron Williams only shoots and does not do anything else and Madison Jones refuses to score the ball.

Villanova T: 69.7

Aside from Pittsburgh, I think Villanova has impressed me the most this year. The strides that James Bell, Darrun Hilliard, and JayVaughn Pinkston have made are astronomical. Bell is a great rebounder even at 6-6 and is more physical and talented than Jovanovic or Jacobs so I expect Bell to do good things. I also really like Hilliard against one of the other 2 as well, just a toss up to who has a better game. I really think villanova runs small against this USC team to keep Chennault on the floor to defend Wesley, and may try to run against this somewhat unathletic USC team. I was expecting a bit more out of Arcidiacono, but he had some random games last year where he just went off, so I would not count him out completely of my lineups today. Pinkston is quicker and tougher than Oraby, so if Villanova decides to go small and not play Ochefu, I still like Pinkston’s matchup even against the bigger USC center.

Southern Cal T: 69.8

I am not enamored with this matchup for USC. Pe’Shon Howard is taking too many shots and is not a good offensive player, and Byron Welsey is almost maximum salary everywhere. I am fading Wesley as Chennault is one of the best on-ball defenders and someone who can contain Wesley. Other than Wesley and Oraby, USC really has no one else to score unless Enfield utilizes JT Terrell more, which I hope he does in this game, I just have not seen the evidence to back up Enfield using Terrell. I like Oraby because he is cheap and facing an undersized team but I would be careful. I think Villanova wins this game big.

Butler T: 67.9

This should be one of the slowest games, but not lacking drama. Khyle Marshall is the guy to own for Butler and I am expecting a huge game from him against the undersized 3 of Washington State. I also like Kellen Dunham who is playing a bit under the efficiency numbers he will average out to. I would really not consider anyone else as Fromm has some of the worst tempo-free stats I have seen in a while along with Barlow not really being a big piece of the offense. Kam Woods is a decent play but relies a lot on putbacks and defensive rebounds to pick up his points.

Washington State T: 66.8

I have to be honest, I have not seen Ike Iroegbu play this year, but I am excited to watch this one. By the looks of things, he is playing some of Washington State’s best basketball. DaVonte Lacy is the guy to own from Wazzu as he is the go-to scorer and probably pretty cheap with a plus matchup against Dunham who is not great defensively. DJ Shelton can post a double double in the right circumstances, and tonight could be it against the somewhat undersized front of Butler. Royce Woolridge is playing a ton of minutes for being extremely cheap like he was last game, so if he is still at the bottom of the salary ranks I may look at him as well.

Creighton T: 69.4

This is my favorite game of the day, and I cannot wait until I get to flip this on at 11pm as it has my 2 favorite players this year in CBB in Doug McDermott and Jahii Carson. McDermott is the Kevin Love of CBB DFS right now as he is essentially guaranteed 20-10 every night. He takes a ton of Creighton’s shots and for good reason – he is very close to being unanimous as the best offensive player in CBB. I expect that Creighton will roll a lot with Will Artino to keep Bachynski off of McDermott and Gilling or Koulechov on him who will not be able to stop him. Even at 19k on Draftstreet today he makes a really solid play. There really is not anything else to say about this team as Doug is a stat sucker and it is hard for anyone else to have a good game. If there is anyone I would want to pick it is Chatman as he has a chance for some big assist numbers passing it off to Dougie.

Arizona State T: 69.6

Jahii Carson is so fun to watch as he controls the game, can get to the basket at will, and can make the 3 when required. Carson is short but has the chops to succeed in the NBA, which I think he will. I do not believe Chatman can contain Carson and if you can afford him he makes a great play today. I really like how Bachynski has improved his game and playing a ton of minutes; he makes a great play today as well, my only concern is on FanDuel if he is not guarding McDermott he may not get the blocks. Jon Gilling as noted in a previous article has the chance to light up the stat sheet, and I am still waiting for that day to come, probably not today. I really think that Jermaine Marshall has a breakout game today, he had some incredible plays late in the win against Marquette and should be brimming with confidence.