College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Feb 13th
The NBA is now on the All-Star break, so what better way to snap your DFS withdrawls than with College Hoops. FanDuel is hosting before the madness so there will be some large prize pools to chase. Tonight the mini-main is still registering but I missed out on some extra entries in the main event as it filled last night.
I am excited to see the guarantee they put out for Saturday’s events as there appears to be some demand for playing this weekend. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. Any injury concerns may be touched on here but need to be investigated by twitter before games start. Let’s get right into it, with some emphasis on FanDuel pricing.
Be aware, the Louisville/Temple and SMU/Rutgers games have been postponed until Friday 2/14. According to FanDuel rules, as long as the games are played on Friday, they will still count. Make sure to not use any of those players on Draftstreet or DraftKings.
St. John’s 70 at Seton Hall 69
St. John’s
The Johnnies are finally playing good basketball and possibly switching my opinion on them. They have some solid value tonight as it appears that Lavin has settled on giving a few guys minutes. Rysheed Jordan is cheap and usually stuffs the stat sheet. Chris Obekpa makes a great play tonight as he has been getting minutes, continues to be cheap, and has major block upside on FanDuel. D’Angelo Harrison is a bit expensive for my tastes considering he usually only scores but he is the #1 option and has the ability to put up 30 in a game. JaKarr Sampson is the other guy in play here, and while he is a little more expensive, he has the game to really frustrate Teague or Auda at the 4 position.
Seton Hall
The Hall lost to Marquette in a game they really needed, but what I noticed was that they spread the ball around in this one to almost everyone. I was high on Fuquan Edwin in the game and he really was not the focal point of the offense. He got his opportunites but so did Auda, Mobley, and Gibbs. When Seton Hall is spreading it around, they have a hard time making value. I won’t argue against Edwin’s upside here but it appears that Teague’s value has been shattered by Auda’s return and Mobley and Oliver are just pieces of the puzzle in the Seton Hall offense. I really do not like anyone here even though the Pirates are at home. I think St. John’s can really frustrate them defensively and do a number here.
Arkansas 75 at Missouri 80
Arkansas
As usual, the 3 guys I mentioned previously were the 3 who got the most run in the last game. Rashad Madden, Bobby Portis and Coty Clarke are the guys Mike Anderson trusts the most. One thing of note is that Michael Qualls finally had a solid game in return from the suspension so maybe he is getting back on the right track with Anderson. It is definitely a risk to use him today but if he breaks out he could pay dividends. Portis has a solid matchup because even though the KenPom numbers note that Missouri has a decent inside defense, I am not convinced they are any good inside and I think that is where Arkansas can attack the Tigers. The problem with Arkansas is that they are awful on the road even though they just broke their streak of losing to everyone but Auburn on the road. I would be careful here as Mizzou may run all over them.
Missouri
Definitely a team I will look to target today, the only issue is the 3 guys that do all of their scoring are at the top of salary tables. Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson are the 2 best options as they run the entire offense and will both get a ton of opportunites. I like Jabari Brown more here if they are the same price but I would have no issue using both. Earnest Ross also makes a solid play tonight. If you want to go cheap, Johnathan Williams gets the minutse but is not involved in the offense. Ryan Rosburg also gets minutes but has an issue contributing in multiple ways. He is a bit of a risk but you could do worse at minsalary on FD.
Minnesota 65 at Wisconsin 73
Minnesota
The Gophers to into Kohl after a very important win against Indiana, but now have to face the Badgers who just took out Michigan State in the same building. They do have Andre Hollins back who has somewhat struggled in the previous 2 games coming back from the ankle injury. I really like how cheap he is, and I think his salary is almost low enough where using him away at Wisconsin is even a plus spot for him. Wisconsin will sag on defense and will not foul but still will not let you shoot the 3 which is where Hollins’ best weapon is. Andre was injured the last game against Wisconsin so he may want revenge here. I am not loving any of the other options however except for Maurice Walker or Joey King. Walker is a bit more consistent and King is a bit cheaper but little Pitino has shown confidence in them to play big minutes in the last few games. Just be careful at Wisconsin the upside is limited.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a very efficient offense which runs through every player and takes advantage of mismatches. Their players are all fairly cheap on FD, but for good reason. They all touch the ball on offense and you cannot really say they have a go to player. It is hard to determine who is going to come through for Wisconsin each game as Bo Ryan will determine how the other team is matching up and attack the weakness. The Baders rebound as a team as well, so even the bigs like Kaminsky are not guaranteed large rebounding totals. A guy like Trae Jackson who is really cheap but runs the point is probably your best option here as he is the safest. Sam Dekker is the most offensively talented player and should have a good game. I am not really sold on anyone else.
Utah 71 at USC 68
Utah
I am really looking forward to this game as I think Utah’s point total is a bit understated here. USC is going to try to speed the Utes up and make them play 70 possessions. At home I think they get it done. This is good news for Delon Wright who did damage against USC in the first meeting with 22-5-4 and 6 steals. Delon has an innate ability at reading passing lanes and with a gambling passer like Pe’Shon Howard, Wright has the ability for multiple steals. I love Wright for upside in this game and am going to attempt to use him in a lot of my lineups. USC is also weak in the paint so I give the edge to Wright. Loveridge finally snapped out of his funk with double digits in the last 2 but is still a little bit too expensive on FD for my tastes. Brandon Taylor has really been playing well for Utah and makes a solid gamble play today against Howard. I do not trust any of the Utah forwards as Larry K will rotate them in and out.
USC
The Trojans got blown out in their first meeting in Utah, but the deal here is that they could be the worst team in the Pac-12. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get blown out again although they did play UCLA competitive in the last game. Byron Wesley is the guy to have here if you want a USC player as he is the #1 option and the best player on the team. Wesley can score from anywhere on the court and routinely puts up 25-7 type games. This is not my favorite spot for him against the long Utah defense but he is the closest thing to a guarantee you get from USC. JT Terrell is a shooter and will jack up shot after shot even unadviseable ones; some of them he even makes. Terrell is notorious for getting benched, but is cheap everywhere and makes a decent gamble play as it’s easy for him to get to the 15 point barrier. Pe’Shon Howard is also a solid gamble in this one as he gets assists, points, and some rebounds, but be careful. He is a turnover machine and if Wright is picking off many of his passes, he can really limit his fantasy potential.
Colorado 70 at UCLA 80
Colorado
I am not sure about Wesley Gordon’s status tonight as he rolled an ankle and missed the last game against Washington. Colorado absolutely brutalized Washington in the last game and appears to have learned how to play without Dinwiddie. The key is that the offense is running more through Xavier Johnson who makes a really nice play tonight. I cannot argue against Josh Scott either who should put up some big numbers against the weak front line of UCLA. Askia Booker has one of the highest floors right now but is fairly expensive on FD tonight. Do not expect those 3 to do what they did against Washington but all 3 have a solid chance of making value, especially if Gordon sits again. Xavier Talton could be a sneaky min price option especially if Gordon sits, and Jaron Hopkins is another min priced guy who could give some nice value.
UCLA
It is not up for discussion that either Anderson or McDermott is the top option on the board, it is just who has the chance for a better game? While Doug relies more on scoring, Anderson relies more on doing everything well. I would say that Anderson is probably the better option especially being at home. Colorado’s interior defense is fairly good though, but their perimeter defense is awful. Anderson could get some cheap assists if LaVine and Adams can knock down some 3’s. UCLA played at Colorado earlier this year however, and Colorado was able to hold Anderson to a respectable 6-5-6 in a loss. Jordan Adams actually had a more productive game in that one. Adams has another good shot to do well today if his 3 point shot is falling. LaVine is the only other guy I would choose here as I really do not like the Wear’s, do not trust Tony Parker, and do not see the upside in Norman Powell.
Creighton 73 at Butler 64
Creighton
Doug McDermott is obviously a stud wherever you can afford him. Butler just has no one to stop the multitude of ways he can put the ball in the basket. I tend to not use other players from Creighton just due to the fact that McDermott could completely take over the offense and no one else would need to score, however Grant Gibbs has played very well in his return to the court. Gibbs is a great passer and if he can reach double digits in points he should also grab some rebounds and can put together some really solid stat lines. Everyone else I would just avoid honestly.
Butler
Butler has been one of the most disappointing teams this year in my opinion. I thought they had the pieces to at least compete for an NCAA tournament berth, but the absence of Brad Stevens has really hurt them. Andrew Chrabascz is the guy who is the bright spot of this team. He has taken Fromm’s minutes and become another scoring option outside of Marshall and Dunham. Chrabascz is still cheap on a site like FanDuel and makes a pretty solid punt play today. You kind of know what you will get out of Khyle Marshall at this time as he will put up about 12 points and a couple of rebounds but the upside is no longer there. The emergence of Chrabascz has also hurt his value. Creighton’s defense is pretty good across the court so I am not sure where Dunham fits in, but he is one of the best shooters and if he gets hot all bets are off. I am not a fan of Kameron Woods as he is more of the rebound cleanup, and Barlow is hit of miss. You could do a lot worse than Barlow for a low salary guy on FanDuel however.
SMU 77 at Rutgers 68
SMU
Even though this game is postponed tonight it still should get played tomorrow making this a viable option on FanDuel. I really like Nic Moore’s matchup here against a horrible defense. Rutgers has a terrible perimeter D and aren’t much better on the inside. Moore should be able to bink a few 3’s and also rack up the assists to Kennedy who will dominate inside. Kennedy struggled against Cincinnati but should be back to his dominating self tonight against Rutgers. Cincinnati is one of the best interior defensive teams in the land so no shame in struggling there especially if your team wins. Moreira will not travel with the team, so Kennedy’s minutes are safe as well. The rest of SMU is hard to figure out. The starters really struggled against Cincinnati and it was the bench that lifted them up. Ben Moore, Keith Frazier and Cannen Cunningham have all been playing extra minutes and should get them over Nick Russell, Shawn Williams and Sterling Brown. In their previous meeting, Nic Moore put up an average stat line and Kennedy went 18-8 in a somewhat lower scoring game than would have been projected.
Rutgers
Rutgers was completely owned the last time these two teams played and only scored 56 points. Kadeem Jack was held in check by the SMU 2 point defense and really only Myles Mack was able to put together a decent fantasy day. Being at Rutgers I would expect a little better and Mack is definitely in play today. I would use caution with Jack, but he should still be a pretty high floor guy I just hate his matchup. Jack is very involed in the offense, and the only other guy I may think of here is JJ Moore who gets the minutes but is terribly inconsistent.
Louisville 86 at Temple 72
Louisville
Even though this game is going to be played on Friday, this is definitely one to target. Louisville is going to score a lot of points in this one as Temple has an awful defense and plays at a fast tempo. Harrell, Smith, Hancock, Jones and Blackshear are all in play here. All are pretty reasonably priced but the solid matchup at Temple puts them all in play today. My favorite has to be Russ Smith who is one of the top options on the board in this set of games. Harrell should also have his way inside with Anthony Lee and could put up a 17-10 type of game. Hancock has really been playing well and should make value today, and the role players for the Cardinals should get some easy looks as well. There really isn’t much to say other than that almost every part of the Temple defense is weak.
Temple
Temple is used to playing catch up this year, so guys like Will Cummings, Quenton DeCosey and Dalton Pepper will be at home being behind by 10 or more. Louisville has a solid defense, but Temple’s offense is pretty good. I am wary of Anthony Lee but he plays solid when I least expect him to. DeCosey takes a ton of shots but really doesn’t contribute much in any other categories. Dalton Pepper should be the leading scorer in this game as he will be able to abuse Hancock on the defensive end and Will Cummings should have a solid game as well most likely matched up against Russdiculous. I like Louisville players more but Temple is not a bad option.
Other Games:
FanDuel has East Carolina at Tulsa and Southern Miss at UAB as well in this game set which people may not know much about. UAB is a fairly quick team which should give Southern Miss a bump. Michael Craig has been a beast for So Miss recently and makes a solid play tonight. Neil Watson is a bit banged up but should play and is the starting point guard. I do not like Watson very much, however. For UAB it’s all about Chad Frazier, CJ Washington and Rod Rucker. Usually one of Washington and Rucker goes off and Frazier is great at getting to the line. I worry about the pace of play in this one for UAB but all 3 are underpriced on FD. ECU runs Akeem Richmond at the 2 to shoot 3’s and Paris-Roberts Campbell to run the point. Michael Zangari is not a great player but he gets the minutes in the paint and can put up decent numbers for min salary. Tulsa is expected to score almost 80 in this game so they can be a source of value. Rashad Smith is a little pricy but should make value in a game against ECU whose 2 point defense is horrible. Rashad Ray is min priced and usually puts up some good numbers. I cannot figure out what to make of Shaq Harrison as he plays lots of minutes but some games absolutely refuses to score the ball. Tulsa is a bit of an enigma but they should provide some value.