College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Feb 20th
Thursdays are always light in the NBA so it is always a perfect time to jump into some college basketball. Here is the grind down for the day and if you are looking for a little more analysis, check out Dan’s podcast for today where I give a few brief picks as well.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. Make sure to check news on injured players like Keith Appling and Anthony Lee as news on those two could really change the value plays landscape out there tonight. There are a few games that are really solid to target today, so instead of wasting time talking about talking about the games, I’ll get right into it.
Duke 79 at North Carolina 78
Duke
Finally Coach K has gotten it into Jabari Parker that he does his best work when he is able to get to the rim. He was struggling before when he would take a bunch of 3’s and forgo driving the hole. He is going to be the top salary on every single site tonight. While he has a good matchup in this game, there are some lower priced options that I actually like about the same as him tonight. Rodney Hood continues to be underpriced everywhere and I think makes a solid play tonight as someone else is going to have to score. I am of the party that believes that Quinn Cook will come around at some point this year, regain the starting PG job, and put up value at guard, but I am not sure this is the game. The good part is if you want to gamble on him you do not have to pay much right now. I like Amile Jefferson in this game as well as Duke will need his height on the court against UNC.
North Carolina
I really think UNC matches up well with Duke in this game. I love James Michael McAdoo who is coming into his own recently and realizing that he needs to score really close to the rim to have any success. This fits in perfectly with Duke’s horrible interior defense and I think McAdoo equals Parker. I wouldn’t worry about his last game as he was in foul trouble almost the entire game, and did not play much. Kennedy Meeks can be a good play when he gets minutes, as he showed last time out but he is a gamble. Brice Johnson should get a lot of minutes in this one in my opinion as UNC really needs his length to guard Duke on the perimeter. Johnson has been a stud lately and is still affordable. Marcus Paige will again play the whole game. I like him today but I would rather attack Duke’s weakness with the UNC forwards.
Michigan State 72 at Purdue 68
Michigan State
For some reason, I am incredibly nervous about this game. Keith Appling is probable, and all signs point to him playing but I am still very cautious. His price has gone way down on certain sites with the injury and his salary is bargain priced considering his potential. If Appling plays, Trice goes back to being a non-option, and Payne also gets a little bump down however without Dawson, Payne should still do well. Gary Harris has also taken a hit in salary on a site like Draftstreet and makes a solid play. I am not sure I would consider Valentine if Appling is back, just because Valentine’s shooting is just so inconsistent and he will most likely lose a few possessions.
Purdue
The Boilermakers are at home but I really cannot advise using anyone on their team except for AJ Hammons. Hammons to me is the ultimate GPP play. He has games where he will play almost the entire game, block a ton of shots and put up good stats, and then there are the games where he gets in foul trouble or just doesn’t play very much at all. The rest of Purdue is bogged down by the entire team getting rotated in and out like hockey subs and I would just avoid them all especially against MSU.
Georgetown 67 at Seton Hall 69
Georgetown
Georgetown is coming off a massacre against St. John’s where they were just owned in basically every facet of the game. Smith-Rivera wasn’t good, Starks was worse, and they were just owned on the glass all game. Here they play Seton Hall which should be a little easier of a test but it still concerns me. I like Starks and I like Smith-Rivera, but only for the right price. This is one of the lower scoring games of the night so the price will have to be right. It is good that they are all coming off poor games so the salary is down a little but still be careful. If you are looking for a little value, Jabril Trawick doesn’t start but is involved in the offense when he gets in and can put up 15 fantasy points fairly easy. Nate Lubick is another guy who I might consider in this one; I haven’t liked him much recently but I think he could pay off his number tonight.
Seton Hall
Seton Hall lost to St. John’s the last time out but by a much more respectable margin. Gene Teague and Brian Oliver were suspended last game but should be back here so guys like Auda, Mobley, and Geramipoor go back to being ignorable. Auda and Gene Teague have essentially wrecked each other’s fantasy value and I wouldn’t choose either here. Fuquan Edwin has 30 point potential on any given night and Sterling Gibbs is also a good option however he has been a little expensive for my tastes lately. I usually get burned by Edwin but he is the only Pirate I am considering.
Penn State 66 at Nebraska 72
Penn State
I am very disappointed in Tim Frazier’s fantasy production this year. I know he has been good, but he has not been dominant and exceeded value in a while. Nebraska has been pretty good lately and has a fairly solid perimeter defense so I do not exactly like Frazier’s matchup here but then again his price is definitely affordable for the best or 2nd best player on the court. DJ Newbill has been doing more of the damage for the Nittany Lions and there are times when he drives to the bucket he looks completely unstoppable. Newbill should score his 17-20 points in this game with a few rebounds. After those two it is really miserable to break down Penn State. You have the curious case of Ross Travis who produces when given the minutes but his minutes recently have been spotty at best. He is definitely affordable and in play here but I would only think of using him if you are desperate. Donovan Jack has an addiction to fouling, and I would suggest he go to some foulers anonymous classes. He has a ridiculous 6.7 fouls per 40 which has really hampered his ability to stay on the court. He can score and rebound, but if he picks up 2 quick ones he will sit for the half. No one else except for Brandon Taylor is in play in my opinion and Taylor hasn’t been good lately.
Nebraska
All hail Terran Petteway. He has a nice 30% shot percentage and is the clear go to player on this team. Penn State’s perimeter defense is average at best and Petteway should be able to abuse that. He makes a good play today especially if affordable. I think he reaches 20 points fairly easily and picks up some rebounds and assists along the way. Walter Pitchford has been playing some very solid basketball for Nebraska lately, and has a talent for scoring the ball. The one area he needs to work on is rebounding at 6-10 but he should be able to grab a few. Pitchford never turns the ball over as well which is great for FanDuel, I definitely think he is in play there tonight. Shavon Shields is the other guy on Nebraska who is worth looking at. Shields went off for 33 points 2 games ago but came down to earth in the last game. He gets shots, rebounds and assists but is going to be a salary based play tonight.
Connecticut 78 at Temple 70
Connecticut
I have Shabazz Napier as my top play of the day today and I am definitely going to try to roster him. Napier abused Temple the last time out and should have no problem doing it again to them here. Temple as well should be able to keep this game closer, but their defense is so bad they will still allow UConn to score at will. I definitely think Boatright is in play here and some may not like him but I really like DeAndre Daniels as a cheaper option in this game. I wouldn’t be scared to use multiple guys from UConn. Lasan Kromah is also in play in my eyes.
Temple
Well, Temple is at home today which should help them not get completely thrashed in this one. The issue lies with Anthony Lee and his health. If Lee does not play, Mark Williams and Devontae Watson step in, neither of whom are tremendous basketball players but both could provide value in extended minutes as Temple has a short bench. This is going to be something I follow all the way down to the final minute as I think Lee being out could open up a lot of avenues for value. Cummings, Pepper, and DeCosey are all going to play almost the entire game. Cummings had the best game out of the 3 last time and I would probably go with him or Pepper in this game if you wanted a Temple player. They would have to be cheap for me to take them though.
Memphis 81 at Rutgers 73
Memphis
Definitely another game I am looking towards taking the away team. Rutgers is almost as bad defensively as Temple, and just horrible against guards. I really expect Joe Jackson to have a solid game here, and even though he is expensive, he is a model of consistency and a great H2H play, you know you are going to get value out of him. I think Geron Johnson makes a sneaky good play as well and Chris Crawford should also have a good game. I am not as big of a fan of Shaq Goodwin but I do not hate him here. I am not taking too much from Memphis on the last meeting as Rutgers had their doors blown off early and Pastner used the time to get his lesser used players some minutes.
Rutgers
Rutgers should be able to keep this one a little closer being at home, but still should get trounced. That being said, I like the potential value for Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack in this game. They are the #1 and #2 options for Rutgers and both have been playing some slow, defense based teams recently who have held Rutgers down. If cheap enough, I definitely think they can provide some value for you today. I wouldn’t go for anyone else on Rutgers however.
USC 67 at Stanford 80
USC
What would Thursday be without a fast paced Pac-12 game to end the night? Other than Byron Wesley, USC is in shambles. Pe’Shon Howard should be back, but the minutes that are being doled out by Enfield are unpredicable and not typical to fantasy success. I wouldn’t even think about playing Wesley today; This has the feel of a blowout to me and I want nothing to do with USC here.
Stanford
Stanford is going to get the tempo bump tonight and coming off of 2 slow games, they should be in a position to make value. Last time against USC it was a balanced attack that got it done, which Johnny Dawkins may choose to use again. Dwight Powell is still option #1 and makes the best fantasy play. Powell will be expensive, but I like the value provided by Huestis Brown and Randle in this game as well. I think all of the main 4 guys who play almost the entire game should do well in this one.
Washington State 62 at Oregon State 72
Washington State
They are only projected to score 62 points in this one but they still get a tempo bump from the Beavers. Washington State is miserable, and only has 2 guys worth using; DaVonte Lacy and DJ Shelton. I really like Shelton’s price on FanDuel and definitely think he can make value tonight against the Oregon State bigs. Oregon State doesn’t play much defense so their big size will not matter that much as showed by Shelton’s monster game last time against OSU. Also, the Beavers are bad at defending the 3 which should open things up for DaVonte Lacy to drop in a couple of triples.
Oregon Stae
After a win over UCLA, Oregon State was a legitimate bubble contender who needed to go 1-2 in their next 3 to continue their hope. They lost all 3 and are on the outside of the Pac-12 bubble conversation. In all reality, they need to win out and then win a couple in the tournament now. The first step is beating Washington State at home. I like Roberto Nelson here whose price is depressed a little bit but he went off for 24 in the last game against Washington State. I like Eric Moreland as well who may not end up guarding Shelton which will be great for his fantasy value. Moreland also plays better at home against poor teams. Hallice Cooke is a value option as he will get a few points if he continues to be almost minimum salary on sites.