College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Feb 27th
It’s been a wild week for me outside of DFS and as much as I tried, I just could not find time yesterday to get a quality writeup in for last night’s games. I would hate to leave everyone hanging for a second night in a row however so I will do my best to get a quality Grind Down up.
Last night, nothing seemed to go as planned except for Iowa State scoring a ton and Arizona blowing out Cal, so maybe tonight will be a little bit more predictable. There are around 8 major conference games plus 2 extras on FD, but I will concentrate on the ones that are on every site. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and make sure to check injury concerns before tip.
Iowa 80 at Indiana 75
Iowa
All of a sudden this becomes a “better not lose” game in terms of Iowa’s seeding. A loss to Indiana after a loss to Minnesota would not impress the committee so I would expect Iowa to come out firing here. Devyn Marble is the stud from Iowa and is working his way up to an extremely risk-less option. He is going to be expensive but makes a solid play tonight. An interesting development to me is that Josh Oglesby played 30 minutes last game. If you can expect him to play 30 minutes again, he would become a very viable option as he is a great scorer. The problem with that is the availability of Basabe, and he is questionable today so it may just be best to stay away from the situation unless we get confirmation. I like Aaron White again today, but he is a tier below Marble in terms of fantasy points.
Indiana
Tom Crean took the Hoosiers from the depths, to the peak, now almost to the depths again. This team really does not have many solid players outside of Vonleh and Ferrell. Sheehey is the only other guy that Crean trusts right now and the rest of the team is just a mess. That being said, those 3 guys all get a nice bump considering how fast Iowa plays. I would consider each of them depending on price at every site. I think Ferrell’s upside is through the roof today and would not hesitate to use him.
Oregon 78 at UCLA 87
Oregon
This is the game of the night in my opinion. Two very quick teams going at it here with efficient offenses and defenses that do not turn heads. Oregon could have some solid production as Mike Moser has been playing very well for his price point. Joe Young has also been playing well and paying off his salary. Oregon is coming off 2 slower games and this game is sure to have over 70 possessions. If you are looking for stud upside for only above average price both of those two will give it to you. Damyean Dotson was suspended last game but should be back for this one. Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd are extremely frustrating and as long as both are playing their value is limited.
UCLA
Top play on the board today of course is Kyle Anderson. There should be plenty of fast break opportunites which will mean easy baskets, assists, and rebounds for Slo-Mo. Anderson has been a little bit down in his stat categories recently but should bounce back easily here; I am not worried about his struggles earlier this year away from home. Travis Wear has really been playing well lately and definitely makes an interesting H2H punt play as he will rarely exceed 20 FP but will get his 15. Jordan Adams is the other option here, and he is a bit more risky than Anderson but still has that 40 FP potential. You can find Adams at a discount, and if you don’t want to use Anderson I think you should at least try for Adams.
Georgetown 67 at Marquette 71
Georgetown
This is an interesting game. Two teams who really need this win, one which could jettison the winner into the tournament. Georgetown is still led by Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, and if planning on playing them I would go with the cheaper option as they are both pretty solid and good for a big game when they play well. I don’t really like any of the G’town forwards, Marquette has a pretty solid interior defense, and Georgetown doesn’t really have any skilled bigs. Nate Lubick is cheap and should play a lot of minutes, so maybe use him if you are desperate for a punt play but Georgetown isn’t the greatest team to look for options with.
Marquette
I wish Buzz would just insert Gardner into the starting lineup, but I am sure he has his reasons. Gardner is great if the game goes to OT because he will play all the crunch time minutes and is a great free throw shooter, but you are essentially forfeiting the first 5-10 minutes of the game before he gets in. I think Jamil Wilson is the play here. Wilson has been playing really well lately and Georgetown can definitely struggle with his strength and quickness on the wing.
Ohio State 68 at Penn State 62
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are back on track with suffocating defense and better than average offense that is enough to get by. I really like LaQuinton Ross in this one, there isn’t a guy on Penn State who can guard him and he will be able to get whatever he wants driving the paint here. He has been criminally underpriced and one of my favorite go to plays when OSU plays someone with poor defense. I do not expect this to be a high scoring game so guys like Craft and Amir Williams are risky propositions. Lenzelle Smith has been really solid believe it or not around 20+ FP in the last month or two. If he is cheap, you may look his way as well.
Penn State
Definitely not the game I am going to look to play DJ Newbill or Tim Frazier. Ohio State is well known for having the best perimeter defense in the land and with Thompson, Craft, and Scott, no guards score easily on the Buckeyes. As noted above this will probably be a lower scoring game with Ohio State clamping down on defense. Better off just to go somewhere else with your dollar. Ross Travis seems to be back playing 30+ minutes so he might be a good gamble on a site like FanDuel, but he is definitely risky. Frazier and Newbill both did well against Ohio State last time but I really think that was more of a fluke and would be extremely surprised if they were able to have the same effectiveness here.
Memphis 77 at Houston 72
Memphis
Was last game a wakeup call for the Tigers? They almost lost to a horrible Temple team and really should have played better. Joe Jackson was his Mr. Consistent self, going for 12-8-5, and should be able to do the same thing again tonight. The problem is, his price has risen to mimic his production. Memphis obliterated Houston at Memphis, and Jackson and Goodwin had huge games, both of whom I like tonight. This one will be closer, so the Memphis reserves can be ignored. I like Geron Johnson as Memphis doesn’t have the defenders to deal with his athleticism if he is playing the 3.
Houston
TaShawn Thomas had a pretty bad game last time out but I like him here. Memphis will speed up Houston a bit and I think Thomas could get a few extra stats in. LJ Rose has been cheap and is back running the Houston point in an efficient manner. Danuel House has also scored in double figures in 6 straight and appears to be getting his early season form back. I would really like to see more rebounds and assists but he could make a very nice play here against Memphis. The rest of the Houston guys are all pretty much avoids as Rose and House have taken minutes from all of them.
Arkansas 71 at Kentucky 82
Arkansas
This game is a huge game for Arkansas tonight to sweep Kentucky and put them on the right side of the bubble. If you remember last time it was Qualls with the game winning slam at the buzzer so Kentucky will be ready for this one as well. I do not think it goes as well for Arkansas this time. Guys to own here are Michael Qualls and Bobby Portis if you want to take Razorbacks. Qualls has really been playing a lot of minutes and playing well recently, and Portis is the anchor inside. Rashad Madden has been struggling, but if cheap could provide some nice value.
Kentucky
This game should be gold for Kentucky, you just have to pick the right Wildcat. Arkansas is the 7th fastest team in the country which will give Kentucky a ton of extra possessions. I am definitely going to try to get some of the better matchup Kentucky guys, like James Young and Aaron Harrison. I think Andrew Harrison has a decent matchup as well, but we all know my dislike for him running the point. Cauley-Stein has been getting pretty consistent minutes lately so he could actually provide some nice value if he plays well, he is a definite risk though. Randle should have his usual 14 points and 12 rebounds as well.
Oregon State 76 at USC 74
Oregon State
Lost in the other Pac-12 games should be an entertaining one here. Both teams are fairly quick but below average. Oregon State will get the tempo bump here and Roberto Nelson should benefit. Nelson was good against Washington but his price is extremely affordable. I would definitely consider him here. Eric Moreland has been struggling and is not at home here so I would avoid him, which probably means he will go for 20-15 tonight since trying to predict what he does is futile. Craig Robinson went back to using a ton of guys against Washington because nothing was working, but I think Brandt and Cooke will go back to getting their 30 minutes as Oregon State should win this game.
USC
Byron Wesley should be back after his suspension but will he start and how many minutes will he play? It seems to be a rotating door of suspensions for coach Enfield this year, and I wonder if he is excited to get rid of Terrell, Howard, and Wesley and start fresh. If Wesley plays the whole game he has a fantastic matchup and will produce but I am fading him just in case Enfield doesn’t get him full run in his time back. Terrell and Jacobs both lose value with Wesley coming back and it might be good just to avoid this situation. Enfield refuses to play Oraby multiple minutes and continues to try to use Jovanovic and Gavrilovic to no avail so their forward situation is a mess as well.
Temple 66 at Louisville 87
Temple
Temple lost 58-82 to Louisville at home about 2 weeks ago, and now they have to play at Louisville. This could be a recipe for disaster. I am not targeting Temple players as I think they really have no upside here. Louisville’s aggressive defense was a huge problem for Temple in the first matchup and I am not sure how anything changes here. Temple is a fast team but they are not very good. Just pass this up and move on.
Louisville
Blowouts can be mostly ignored in college basketball, but this game may be one you have to worry about. Louisville in all purposes should have this game essentially over by halftime, and if Pitino really thinks this game is in order at halftime, he may cut Smith and Harrell’s minutes in the 2nd half. Hancock probably will not be effected and makes a really solid play in this one. I like Harrell as well to have a really nice game as he proved in the first game that neither Watson nor Lee could handle him inside. Russ Smith should have a nice game as well but Temple somewhat held him in check in their last meeting. Louisville is going to get their points in this one and their players should be good for value.