College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Feb 6th
We’ve got a smaller slate than usual tonight, but a ton of Pac-12 games to get to. Should be a late finish tonight with Oregon State and Arizona State tipping at 11pm, a game which should feature a ton of points. I always enjoy late night Pac-12/WCC Thursdays as they usually provide some solid entertainment.
I want to spend this time to complain about Ken Bone’s apparent strategy to double and triple team Josh Scott. I have not watched tape from the game but this sounds like an absurd strategy which crushed me on 2 sites, and really one to keep an eye on in the future if he plans on limiting a team’s best scoring option. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com and check injuries near tip; Andre Hollins suiting up really killed me on one site as I was not around a computer from 6-7 to check his status. That shows you how important injury news can be.
Connecticut 59 at Cincinnati 64
Connecticut
Can anyone believe that Cincy is ranked 7th in the nation? Well, they can stop anyone from scoring right now. This should give us a little break from the monster salary of Napier. To be honest, I wouldn’t pick anyone from UConn in this game; Cincy can limit anyone’s FP potential and UConn has not played this good of a defense in 2 weeks.
Cincinnati
This game should be much more uptempo than the USF game, and Justin Jackson looked very good in that one, showing he is back to early season form. Jackson’s salary has taken a bit of a dive and he is definitely in play here against the weak UConn interior. Sean Kilpatrick is always in play when he gets a tempo boost and Titus Rubles has been stuffing the stat sheet lately. If you use Rubles however, do not expect him to make any jumpers; his offensive game makes children cry.
LSU 71 at Georgia 69
LSU
This is kind of a trap spot here for LSU in daily fantasy and in the real game in my opinion. LSU is coming off of great wins against Kentucky and Arkansas and played in a lot of tempo in those games. LSU loves to run, but is facing a snail in Georgia who is at home and going to try to slow them down. Johnny O’Bryant has been phenomenal lately, but I would be cautious with his salary here; his upside is lower in this one than it has been lately. Jarell Martin is possibly my favorite value option for LSU as he has appeared to have solidified himself in the starting lineup. Jordan Mickey is also part of the monsters down low for LSU and is in the same boat as the other 3. Be careful with LSU today especially since their strength is inside and Georgia has a great paint defense.
Georgia
On the other side, Georgia has been playing really really slow and now faces one of the fastest teams in the country. I definitely think their players are in play today, but their bigs like Thornton, Djurisic, and Williams will struggle against the massive LSU frontcourt. It’s best to look at their guard play which is the weakness of LSU. Charles Mann is the guy to own here, and if Kenny Gaines plays (he is questionable but played last game) he should make another solid play.
Oregon 65 at Arizona 78
Oregon
Ugh, this team disgusts me from a fantasy perspective today. A fast team going to a slow team who has the number 1 overall defense in the nation. This is especially concerning since the Ducks cannot figure out who they are; essentially only Joe Young and Mike Moser know they will be playing the whole game. I would only think about taking a chance on Moser if his salary is still low after the worst performance in college basketball history by one player on January 30th.
Arizona
On the other hand, the slow team in Arizona gets to play a team in Oregon that plays no defense. This is fantastic for fantasy purposes and literally everyone is in play here. Brandon Ashley is done for the season which means more minutes for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Gabe York. Both make great value plays in this one. Arizona is not very deep so conditioning and stamina is going to become a concern but for DFS that means the entire starting lineup will play 30+ minutes. I may try to cram as many Arizona players into my roster as possible, McConnell, Johnson, Gordon, RHJ and Tarczewski all should perform tonight.
Oregon State 70 at Arizona State 81
Oregon State
FINALLY it appears that Craig Robinson has settled on a rotation, and the Beavers are winning so it gives me no inclination that that might change. Last game Nelson, Cooke, Moreland, Morris-Walker, and Brandt all received 30+ minutes in a decently uptempo game. OSU is away but I think that Moreland and Nelson both carry massive upside here and you can go with Cooke or Brandt if they are cheap. The presence of Bachynski worries me a little bit about Brandt and Moreland, so I will target Nelson.
Arizona State
This should be a really fun game and I think Jahii Carson is your top play of the day here. Nelson really doesn’t like to guard so Carson should be able to drive around him fairly easily. Shaq McKissic does a bit of everything on the court and is definitely affordable enough to roster tonight playing for one of the highest scoring teams. Oregon State has the bigs to deal with Bachynski so I am not too fond of him here but he should have to stay in the game to deal with Brandt or Moreland at all times. Jermaine Marshall can get hot an go for 30 but he is GPP only due to his inability to get any other stat.
Washington 67 at Utah 77
Washington
CJ Wilcox takes his Huskies into the altitude of the Huntsman center for a battle with Delon Wright and the Utes. The last game played between these two teams was an ugly, drawn out affair where neither team reached 60. Utah has the ability to do that to you and after a demoralizing loss to Washington State, I really do not see Washington getting up for this game. This could end up being fairly ugly for Washington as Utah plays well at home and has a solid defense, especially at home. Washington’s players are all too expensive for me and I think there are better options out there at all of Washington’s prices today.
Utah
It’s the Delon Wright show, and that’s what it should continue to be tonight. By my best guess Utah needs to win 7 of its last 9 including a win over Arizona to make the tournament. I really like this team and think they can do it but they are going to have to get a road win at some point. Back to the game at hand; Delon Wright makes just as good of a play as Carson tonight as he should have a field day against Washington. Last time he went for 27-1-11 and he has the innate ability to cut off passing lanes for steals and layups. He is a real joy to watch and I will certainly be rostering him here. I thought Dallin Bachynski had assumed consistent minutes but last game he played poorly and only played 13 minutes giving way to Olsen proving that nothing is guaranteed in the Utah frontcourt. I also like Jordan Loveridge here – he is coming off a bad game, salary is depressed, and he should make value.
Penn State 64 at Michigan State 78
Penn State
I am not really liking Penn State in this game as they have to go to the Breslin to face a rested Spartans team who will most likely be getting Adreian Payne back. Izzo has had a few days to explain to his team I am sure in a very calm manner that losing to Georgetown is unacceptable. I like the Spartans to come out in this one firing and on all cylinders. If Penn State is going to stay in it it will be on the shoulders of Tim Frazier and DJ Newbill, the only two guys consistently playing the entire game. Brandon Taylor and Graham Woodward are two guys who have been getting more run lately but their involvement in the offense is limited. I am not 100% sure what is going on with Ross Travis but he appears to be getting his minutes back; I still wouldn’t use him. Penn State will have trouble scoring, so not a great spot for them.
Michigan State
Dawson is for sure not playing in this game so it breaks it down to if Payne plays or not. If Payne starts, I expect him to play about 25 minutes as it shouldn’t take long to get him back from plantar fascitis. It is not an easy thing to get over, so it makes me hesitant to use him. His price has dropped on a couple of sites due to him missing games, but if he plays 25-30 minutes he should be able to put up some monster numbers and abuse the PSU interior. Denzel Valentine will continue to play 30+ minutes and Matt Costello goes back to only being a 15-20 minute guy with the return of Payne, so I would avoid him. Gary Harris has really been frustrating lately, but this seems as good as any for him to break back out against a team in the bottom 3rd at defending the 3. Appling also has been in a slump shooting 3’s so this game could break him out of it. He should have a solid game as well.
Temple 68 at SMU 84
Temple
Good thing Temple can score the ball because their defense is dreadful. Fran’s teams are usually fairly solid on D but this year it is completely opposite of what his teams usually do. This team just does not have the personell to compete defensively with anyone, which puts this game in the blowout realm, however Temple does have what it takes to attack SMU. To score on Larry Brown’s Mustangs, you need to hit the 3 and Temple can definitely do that. Dalton Pepper makes a solid play if he is cheap and Quenton DeCosey takes a lot of 3’s but does not make many. Even Will Cummings takes a bunch of 3’s so if Temple gets hot, watch out. If they are cold, this game will be over by halftime. One guy I am staying 3000 feet away from is Anthony Lee who should struggle against the tough interior D of SMU.
SMU
SMU is the highest scoring team of the night, so many of their players make good plays. They turn the ball over on offense a ton which is their big weakness but Temple does not turn you over, so they are in the clear there. I am loving both Nic Moore and Markus Kennedy in this one although if Moreira plays, I would bump Kennedy down a bit and he is already so expensive. Finding someone else on this team of value is a struggle although with 84 points there is sure to be someone. I would go with Nick Russell who has solidified himself in the lineup and is contributing in many ways.