College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Jan 2nd
Finally conference play has started, so every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday should have multiple great games and good games on each site that offers CBB. There are lots of Pac-12 games tonight and a couple games which will probably be blowouts. The numbers next to the teams in the headers are the projected scores on KenPom.com, but keep in mind those are computer projections which do not account for injuries.
I am a little short on time today, but I wanted to get something up for you about tonight’s games. The normal stats that are usually up can be found at KenPom.com. My apologies for the lack of formatting as well, as this appears very drab.
Michigan 68 v Minnesota 70
Michigan:
This projection still includes Mitch McGary in it, so I would damper the hopes of Michigan scoring 68 points a little bit. There are two guys on Michigan who I would really consider in this game and that is Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson. GR3 is going to be asked to do a ton of the scoring and should be a pretty low variance play. Stauskas you can also find at a bargain due to him struggling a bit returning from the ankle injury. Stauskas has really changed his game and is an impressive basketball player now. Matchups for those two against Minnesota’s undersized 3 position should make for big games from the two guys from Michigan. I am not a fan of Zak Irvin, but if you want a min priced salary option he is going to take some shots while on the floor. Caris LeVert makes a decent play as well if cheap, however is a risk as seen by his recent struggles. Michigan has no inside game, so Jordan Morgan has played 22 and 28 minutes in the last 2 and should be relatively inexpensive. He is not very good but should make value.
Minnesota:
Even after losing Mbakwe, Williams, and a couple others, Minnesota is still a decent team behind the superb play of Andre and Austin Hollins. I like Andre a bit more than Austin and he should be cheaper, but both make solid plays today against Michigan. Deandre Mathieu also makes an interesting play against Derrick Walton, who just is not that great of a point guard. Mathieu is short but should be able to drive and get some buckets against the awful Michigan frontcourt. Elliott Eliason could also have a big game as he might be able to dominate against the inept Wolverine bigs. Those are the only guys I would consider using on Michigan as everyone else is inconsistent or does not get amny minutes.
Wisconsin 63 v Northwestern 56
Wisconsin:
The Badgers have been very good this year, efficient on both offense and defense. Their mantra under Bo Ryan is the same, play slow, do not foul, play technically sound on defense and make the other team beat you with bad shots. This should be a very low scoring game and one that I am most likely avoiding altogether. Sam Dekker has been really efficient in the last few games, and will probably make 15 and 5 but there just is no upside here. The Badgers really spread it around and in a very slow, low possession game away from home, it just does not look good.
Northwestern: If I’m fading the Badgers, I am surely going to fade Northwestern. It is never a good idea to take players from a team projected to score 56 points. There may be one exception, as Dave Sobolewski is minimum salary on FanDuel tonight and should play nearly the entire game. I can see a stat line of 8-5-2 to make his value, but there is no upside. JerShon Cobb is still injured and makes a very risky play. The only other guy worth considering is Drew Crawford, but I really don’t love his price in a low possession low scoring game.
Washington 72 v Arizona State 87
Washington: Even in a projected big loss, Washington provides a ton more value than Northwestern. The 5 starters for Washington will play almost the entire game. Due to Bachynski in the middle, I would stray away from Perris Blackwell and even Desmond Simmons. Simmons is just returning, but his minutes are still low and he has a bad matchup against one of the best rim protectors in the game. I like Mike Anderson as he continues to be cheap and plays big minutes; he should take more than the one shot he did last game. Nigel Williams-Goss makes a decent play as well, but the guy I really like here is CJ Wilcox. Wilcox is going to take a ton of shots as the best shooter on the team, and this matchup should suit him just fine as there is no one on Arizona State who can check him rolling off screens. Washington needs Wilcox to score 30 to keep this one close, so he will have the green light.
Arizona State: The highest scoring team tonight, Arizona State, should also provide a ton of value. Jahii Carson comes into this game as my favorite play as a point guard who loves to run in a run and gun game. I would not be surprised to see him hit 45 FP today. Shaq McKissic has been getting a bunch of minutes in the last 2 games and could make a sneaky play tonight if cheap. Jermaine Marshall also makes a solid play although he is dependant on scoring the basketball for fantasy purposes. Gilling should also provide value, as well as Bachynski who is usually good for 5-6 blocks. I am not against using 2 or 3 guys on Arizona State if you can get them at good prices. Washington is just incredibly awful on defense, and Carson should have no problem going to town.
Oregon 77 v Utah 76
Oregon: This should be the best game in my mind tonight as Oregon travels into the altitude to play Utah. With how fast Oregon plays, I am only considering 2 guys here, in Joe Young and Mike Moser. Those two should play most of the game and not only that, are the best stat producers Oregon has. Dominic Artis is back and played 22 minutes last game but is a bit behind and I do not think he plays substantial minutes in this game either. Guys like Cook, Amardi and Calliste have been coming off the bench and playing big minutes, especially when they get hot. This team is hard to predict the minutes as they are very deep and Altman will use all of his guys. If you can afford Young or Moser they should be in line for nice games, but I would fade the rest of Oregon.
Utah: I like Utah to win this game, as they are at home, with the top 2 point offense going against a team with a porous 2 point defense. I love Delon Wright in this one and I think he plays almost the entire game and puts up a massive stat line. He is super expensive, but for good reason. Roll him out with confidence. I also love Jordan Loveridge who should have another solid game if he does not settle for 3 point jumpers. Brandon Taylor plays most of the game as well, and is not a terrible play although he does not get the rebounds the other two get. Other than the big 3, the bigs alternate and do not make good plays. Larry Krystkowiak has done an amazing job with this team, as they were the worst major conference team in recent memory 2 years ago and now have a solid chance at an at-large if they can have a decent Pac-12 campaign.
California 70 v Stanford 76
California: Cal travels to Stanford today in what should be a very interesting game of 2 Pac-12 teams that might end up on the bubble. Jabari Bird and Ricky Kreklow are again out for this game which means that Mathews, Solomon, and Wallace will play bigger roles with Sam Singer also playing more minutes. The offense runs through Justin Cobbs however who makes a solid play. If Tyrone Wallace is cheap as well, I like him to have a solid game as he has scored in double figures in 4 straight. Singer has not done much with his minutes and makes a very risky play. I do like Richard Solomon however as he should generally be rebounding against Nastic who is just garbage, and Solomon is one of the best rebounders in the game.
Stanford: The Cardinal roll usually with a 4 man rotation and a rotation 5 man between Gage, Nastic and Verhoeven, none of which make good plays. Nastic has been very involved with the offense lately, however he is not a great rebounder and I really think Stanford is more fluid without him in the game, not to mention Solomon will most likely guard him and take him out of the gameplan. Dwight Powell is pretty much matchup-proof and should have a field day today against the defense of Kravish or Solomon if Cal does decide to switch it up. Powell has not been very efficient but his ability to get to the rim and rebound makes him a fantasy beast. Anthony Brown has been awful lately and appears to have disappeared from the offensive rotation. I would not panic just yeat as he still plays most of the game and his price should be lower. I am looking at him to rebound from a couple of poor games and score in double figures here. Huestis is essentially a 10-10 guy and is pretty low variance, and I am not too big on Randle tonight against Justin Cobbs who is Cal’s best player.
Washington St. 56 v Arizona 72
Washington St.: Do not be fooled, the Cougars are still horrible this year. They have DaVonte Lacy who is a breakout star, however he is out with appendicitis. That means that even in a low scoring game for Wazzu, that Que Johnson and Royce Woolridge have a solid chance to make value. Johnson has slowly worked his way from role player to important starter and should be able to make value again tonight. I would target Woolridge and Shelton tonight but I only think their upside is right around 20-25fp so do not spend too much. This is just a horrible spot for Washington State without the star against the #1 team in the country.
Arizona: Arizona only projected at 72 is a pretty low score to be in a blowout game. This game really should not be interesting for long, and even with Kaleb Tarczewski probable to play, I could see him sitting most of the 2nd half. I still think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson gets his 25-27 minutes and has a nice shot at making value tonight along with TJ McConnell who should work his way close to double digit assists against a porous Washington State defense. Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson upside are limited as well. They should get their points but I am not targeting them.
Oregon State 69 v Colorado 82
Oregon State: Really only 4 guys to see here, Roberto Nelson, Devon Collier, Eric Moreland and Angus Brandt. Everyone else on this team does not play enough minutes and is not involved in the offense. Angus Brandt came back from his injury with a very impressive 21 points and 5 rebounds on 7 shots in 29 minutes, but I am not expecting those same totals today as Eric Moreland was reinstated for tonight’s game. If you remember last year, Moreland was one of Robinson’s best players, and best rebounder and completely changes the makeup of this team. With him in the lineup, Oregon State could pose a challenge here. I am not sure what Robinson will do but he needs Moreland to play big minutes here. If he is cheap, look at Moreland for value. Moreland’s return takes value from Brandt and Collier, so I would avoid those 2 tonight but continue to look at Nelson if you can afford him. Nelson is a great attacker, makes his free throws, and is the one most involved in the OSU offense. His struggles recently have lowered his price as well.
Colorado: With Moreland, it changes things a bit for Colorado. They are going to need to go big and stay big so I expect Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon to play some extra minutes. Gordon has been a bit of an enigma at times, and has played awful in certain games, but Tad Boyle continues to run him 25 minutes per game. I do not hate him, but do not love him tonight. I like Xavier Johnson’ value tonight on FanDuel as I think he will play a lot and only 2 games that he has played has he not been productive. I really like Spencer Dinwiddie as well as Oregon State just does not play defense and he should be able to get anything he wants from them. He needs to be taking more than 5 shots per game, although he is doing a very good job of getting to the free throw line.