College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Jan 30th
Only 3 NBA games tonight and PGA rosters are already locked, so CBB has the best slate of games tonight. There are some really interesting games with UCLA visiting Oregon and Louisville and Cincinnati squaring off in an AAC conference clash. The CBB GPPs have risen in size lately and I am expecting them all to fill tonight fairly easy.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and there are a few injury concerns tonight so make sure to twitter guys names before rosters lock to make sure they are a go. Early on it looks like Justin Jackson will play but be careful as he may be a bit tentative with his ankle.
UCLA 86 at Oregon 87
UCLA
I think UCLA has the best matchup tonight of all the teams. They play a really weak defensive team in Oregon, a team they should beat handily at home, however they are in Eugene tonight which will keep the game closer than usual. Kyle Anderson is the top play on the board tonight and I cannot imagine anyone on Oregon being able to slow him down. You will have to pay for him tonight but his upside is way off the charts in this one. Jordan Adams should also have a good game, and I would use Zach LaVine if he is cheap. David Wear had a breakout game last game but that is more of an anomaly than the norm. Tony Parker could end up having a huge game if he can stay out of foul trouble as Oregon really has no post defense whatsoever.
Oregon
The Ducks have somewhat stopped the bleeding with a dominating win over Washington State, however who cannot dominate Washington State? I am really interested to see this game as I really think Oregon can make this a game if their offense can keep up with UCLA. UCLA is fairly weak inside so I like Mike Moser here and I also like Richard Amardi if he gets the minutes. The problem with Dana Altman at this point is that he is playing anyone who will give him effort on the defensive end so only a few guys are getting consistent minutes in Moser and Young. One situation to look out for today is the health of Johnathan Loyd who broke his nose in practice and is questionable for tonight. If he does not go, Dominic Artis will be in line for many more minutes and makes a very, very strong play tonight.
Providence 65 at Marquette 67
Providence
This is not a game that I will likely be targeting today, however if you want to use Providence players, I would not say they are horrible plays tonight. I think their upside is limited today but Batts, Henton, Cotton, and Harris play almost the entire game due to a short bench. Harris is going to be the cheapest out of those and I think that he has the best matchup. I really dislike everything about Marquette except for Gardner and I think Harris could have a solid value game here. Bryce Cotton is an ironman who plays every single minute and has a solid matchup as well. I think Batts could struggle if he is matched up against Gardner in this game as Gardner could get him in trouble backing him down. Unless Providence goes to overtime in this game, I really do not think there is much margin for error in picking a player.
Marquette
Even though Marquette is at home in this one, I really do not like their players today. They are playing a super slow team in Providence, whose defense and offense is both playing better, and they have played in 3 straight overtime games. Most of their players are a little overpriced especially with Gardner’s blowout game against Villanova. A lot of the players are risky here especially Todd Mayo who is emerging as a scorer but does not do anything else.
Cincinnati 60 at Louisville 68
Cincinnati
It appears as if Justin Jackson will play in this game, but I am not 100% positive on the status of his ankle. I am inclined to believe that it will not effect him that much as he is a tough, gritty player who fights through everything. Jackson’s salary should be a bit lowered since he was injured last game and if it took enough of a dive I wouldn’t hesitate to roster him here even against the tough Louisville defense. Sean Kilpatrick will again do his normal 23-7 type game and is a solid play but for his price I want someone with upside. I really do not like anyone else on Cincinnati as they are a team devoid of offensive talent who will most likely try to slow this game down and keep it close. I think this could turn mighty ugly and other than Justin Jackson I am avoiding Cincy here.
Louisville
The Cardinals get Chris Jones back for potentially the biggest AAC game of the year so far. I am not sure how much Jones will play but he could be a really solid gamble if minimum salary on most sites. Terry Rozier goes back to being a bench warmer and his value takes a mighty tumble here, stay away from him. I am also fading Russ Smith against a pressure defense with length as I think he could struggle and turn it over a few times. Montrezl Harrell has been really good lately and should approach a double double in this one as well. The thing that concerns me with him is Justin Jackson’s defense. While this should be a great game to watch, it is brutal for fantasy purposes.
Indiana 69 at Nebraska 72
Indiana
This team is pretty bad at scoring, plain and simple. Yogi Ferrell cannot carry the scoring load by himself, and needs Vonleh to be a huge part of the offense. The problem here is that sometimes it appears as if the Hoosiers forget that Vonleh is a part of the offense and he never gets involved. I think Crean force feeds him the ball in this one and he ends up with a nice stat line somewhere in the 10-10 range. Stanford Robinson has been playing solid minutes and makes a decent option if you are striving for a super cheap option. I do not trust any of the other guys for Indiana as they just are not very good, and are playing at Nebraska who is really playing well.
Nebraska
Welcome to the world where everyone knows your name, Terran Petteway. I have been using him religiously for a while in good spots and he has been performing. The problem is after his 35 point outburst, his salary is going to be through the roof. I do not exactly like him in this game against a defensive minded Indiana team who will most likely try to slow Nebraska down here. I think Petteway is one of the most consistent options you could choose but if you are looking for a high salary upside option I can basically guarantee he doesn’t hit 30 points in this one. Shavon Shields plays big minutes and is highly involved in the offense and makes a pretty decent play if cheap on your site. Ray Gallegos is a 3 point specialist who is contributing in a few more ways and makes a speculative option today.
USC 74 at Oregon State 81
USC
One thing that you can always count on in the Big 12 and Pac 12 this year is that there will be one or two games per night that has the potential to put up a huge total. This is the 2nd one of the night in the Pac 12. USC has been playing JT Terrell a lot of minutes lately and he always brings upside if he is going to shoot the ball a ton, especially against Oregon State who has absolutely no perimeter defense whatsoever. I really like Pe’Shon Howard in this game against an Oregon State team who refuses to play defense. Howard to Oraby was a combination that worked wonders against Stanford, and I think that they will try to use it again against Oregon State in this one. Byron Wesley plays the most minutes and has the most upside of any USC player but I like JT Terrell today for the value. I would not use any of the USC big guys as Moreland, Collier, and Brandt can dominate a game when they feel like it.
Oregon State
The Beavers come into this game having played 2 games under their normal tempo away from home. Here they get a game against a team who loves to run in Corvallis where they should be able to run and run some more. I love Moreland in this game even with his 2 previous duds. I think Moreland has one of the highest upsides for one of the cheapest prices out there right now. Collier was solid in the last game but while he continues to come off the bench he is a fade for me. Roberto Nelson has one of the highest upsides at the guard position today as well. Angus Brandt has 5 straight double digit scoring games and should provide some solid value in this one as well. I really like Oregon State in this one and can get on board using multiple players.
Purdue 67 at Michigan 81
Purdue
First thing I want to address is AJ Hammons, as he is the guy I think of when I think of Purdue. He had an awful game against Wisconsin and did not play a ton of minutes which should lower his salary. I honestly do not think of how he cannot go nuts against Michigan today who is really weak in the middle. Michigan has solid defensive guards and wings but is really weak inside and Purdue is going to need Hammons to be the #1 guy. I am going to target him in most places but he is to risky to use across the board for me but he definitely brings the most upside for the buck today. I really do not like anyone else on Purdue. Michigan is playing at home where they play very well, and like noted before have some really solid defensive guards and wings. Other than Terone Johnson who has a really low ceiling, none of Purdue’s other guys bring upside in this one.
Michigan
Nik Stauskas is a an absolute stud and is carrying Michigan to the top of the Big 10. I honestly think he should be in the player of the year race along with McDermott he means that much to Michigan right now. Stauskas is a top salary guy and should be treated as such. He has a great matchup here against Purdue because he can score inside and outside and abuse their defense however they try to stop him. Michigan has a ton of guys who can score, but one guy who has been disappointing is Glenn Robinson. He has not played well recently, but I think could make a solid upside play tonight at home against a bad team. Robinson is a bit risky but usually plays better in non pressure situations and could put up a decent stat line tonight. I am not high on anyone else on Michigan, but Derrick Walton has been playing well lately, and Morgan and Horford are splitting the center minutes.
Houston 64 at Connecticut 77
Houston
At this point, I am not 100% sure what to think of Houston. I know LJ Rose is the starting point guard and was in foul trouble last game but the fact that he only received 15 minutes and did not do much is concerning. I am going to continue rolling with him as a cheap option just due to the fact that he is #1 on the depth chart and is so cheap. Danuel House is getting worked back into the rotation and should receive about 30 minutes tonight. The only thing that is certain on Houston is that TaShawn Thomas is a stud and should receive all the minutes he can get. I am not really high on any Houston player today and would rather take a gamble on House or Rose if they are really cheap as UConn will most likely blow them out. None of the other Houston players are getting me excited at all.
Connecticut
I know UConn is going to be very angry and want revenge for their loss at Houston. I am not sure that having House and Rose for this game will prevent a blowout. DeAndre Daniels is questionable and most likely a game-time decision, so his status is very up in the air; just avoid him today. Him missing the game would make Boatright, Kromah, and Brimah fantastic options along with Shabazz Napier. Napier as usual is a beast of a fantasy player and should put up a monster stat line especially with no Daniels. UConn is definitely a team to target today.
Mississippi State 59 vs Florida 71
Mississippi State
I am going to advise you to avoid everyone from Mississippi State today. They are playing against a top 10 defense and a team who plays at one of the slowest tempos in the nation. I would not be surprised to see Miss St struggle to break 50 here. There are no upside to their players and none of them are very skilled.
Florida
The Gators finally get Chris Walker eligible from the NCAA, but the role he has is yet to be defined. I expect him to play some later in the game however he is way too risky an option to use most places even if he is available which he may not be. I really dislike Florida as well as Mississippi State as they are finally healthy and have a lot of players playing a lot of minutes and spreading the ball around. Florida is a top team in the nation but not very productive from a fantasy perspective right now.
Note: Chris Walker is not eligible until February 4th. Do not use tonight.