College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Jan 9th
Get used to it, there is another solid schedule on tap for this Thursday, and it should be like this all season long. Last night there were some strange losses by some teams and the news that Eric McClellan and Josh Smith have academic issues, McClellan done for the season and who knows how long Smith will be out.
Frazier and Delon Wright really came through as cheaper #1 options last night so were going to try to find some top tier studs for value tonight as well. About 12 games on the docket and we will get to the most important ones. As always, KenPom.com has the individual offensive stats and has the score projections.
Arizona 74 at UCLA 71
Arizona
Pretty hard to determine value right now on this Arizona team due to each player knowing their role and spreading out the fantasy value amongst the entire team. KenPom has Arizona as 3 point favorites, but I think they take their first loss tonight, however UCLA is playing at the 14th highest tempo in the nation so the Wildcats should get a few extra possessions which they have not had to deal with in their blowout wins. I think Kaleb Tarczewski could have a very solid game tonight as UCLA is pretty poor inside. In fact, if I had to take any Arizona players I would be going with Gordon, Ashley and Tarczewski as the guard play from UCLA is fantastic offensively and defensively. Nick Johnson could get some easy buckets in transition as well; none of the Arizona starters are terrible plays.
UCLA
Here we have a home team who is facing a snail coming off 4 straight 70 possession games. Arizona plays at 65 possessions and have the #2 ranked KenPom defense, so take away some value from the players here. To be completely honest, the only guy I am targeting on UCLA right now is Kyle Anderson, who is a lock for 30 with 50 potential, but everyone else I think is going to have a hard time making their value. Arizona is just so tough and long defensively that Anderson is going to have to do most of the leg work to get this win. Jordan Adams will most likely be guarded by Nick Johnson who is a fierce on-ball defender and should cause the star Soph some issues.
Florida State 57 at Clemson 61
Florida State
Florida State has been up and down in tempo, but when facing a solid defensive team, they have really struggled to score the ball. Okaro White is their best fantasy option however he commits a ridiculous amount of fouls and has had trouble staying on the court this year. Clemson quietly has the 7th best defense in the country, are very long, and take away the 2 and the 3. I cannot get on board using any of the Florida State players here in a game where it should be tough to reach 60.
Clemson
Clemson is in a bit better of a position playing Florida State at home fantasy-wise than FSU is, but we have to determine if there is any value. Outside of McDaniels, Roper, Hall, and Nnoko, no one is playing enough minutes to warrant consideration. McDaniels is the star of the team, is an athletic freak and takes almost 30% of the shots. FSU will give you some looks at 3, but McDaniels has not knocked them down this year. Rod Hall has been proably the best offensive player, however the only shots he takes are good ones. He has scored double digits in 3 straight and is probably good for 12 points and 5 assists in this one. I am really not liking anyone else as FSU has size to deal with Nnoko and Roper is totally reliant on his shot against as olid defense.
Arizona State 75 at USC 74
Arizona State
How can you not love late night hoops in the Pac-12? We get a game which normally would not be that entertaining, but is better-not-lose game for Arizona State if they want to make the tournament. Both teams are relatively fast, USC the 20th fastest, and Arizona State in the top 3rd so there should be value here in a tight high scoring game with lots of possessions. Jahii Carson is at the lowest price I have seen him in a while, so get at him while you can. Kyle Anderson really killed USC with dribble drives and getting fouled and little pull-up jumpers from the elbow which is Jahii’s specialty. I think Carson puts up a Frazier-esque line tonight. I also like Bachynski on FanDuel against a USC team which chucks up some ill-advised shots. Shaq McKissic has emerged as a big player for Arizona state playing 30+ minutes in the last 4 games and providing excellent defense. He can score fantasy points in multiple ways and makes a solid play. I tend to shy away from Marshall as he is completely scoring dependent but USC does give you the 3 point look so he is also in play.
USC
JT Terrell is back after his academic issues, and played 28 minutes against UCLA. One thing about Terrell is that he is going to shoot from anywhere, so if you like shot attempts for a cheap price, he is your guy. He is the ultimate risk/reward play as he could get you nothing as well. Byron Wesley is a little bit too expensive with the return of Terrell as JT will take some of his shots, although it did not effect him too much last game going for 21-9 with Terrell in the lineup. I think McKissic might guard Wesley as well which hurts Wesley’s value. Nikola Jovanovic also makes an interesting play as Enfield refuses to have Oraby on the court for extended minutes. Jovanovic before last game had scored double figures in 6 straight and was also pulling down rebounds. His price should have dipped a bit with the UCLA dud but I like him to get back to shooting here especially if him and Oraby are on the court at the same time, drawing Bachynski away.
California 73 at Oregon 81
California
This game should be good for some offensive fireworks as well as Oregon is one of the fastest teams in the country and defense is their achilles heel. California will be without Jabari Bird again which will cause Tyrone Wallace to continue to produce as he has since Bird has been out. Wallace has scored double figures in 5 straight and 18 and 20 in his last 2. Richard Solomon is a stud here and still underpriced on DraftKings, where he should easily go for a double double. He runs the floor well and is a rebounding monster, 10th in the nation currently in DR%. Kravish has had a few sub-par games and has really taken his place behind Solomon. Justin Cobbs is another low risk guy as he plays nearly the netire game, gets 6-7 assists per game and scores in double figures. I like him to have a good game tonight against Oregon.
Oregon
The Ducks are a little frustrating this year as they just have so many pieces. They are really spreading the ball around well and taking solid shots on offense and being very efficient. I am not sure if Artis will ever get over the 20mpg hold he seems to have, but in those minutes he has been productive scoring 20FP in all but 2. He is a nice low price option tonight. I would stray away from Loyd as he has really lost consistent minutes to Artiz and has not played particularly well recently; his price has not adjusted yet. I really like Joe Young as well, but with all of the other options he is really having a heck of a time trying to score 20+. Moser is a guy that I really like to use, especially if he is cheap as he will get his looks and rebounds the ball very well. Richard Amardi has also been getting a lot of playing time, but his minutes are limited. This Oregon team is almost like pick your poison as so many people play and so many are involved in the offense. I like Artis and Moser for value tonight but also think that Joe Young could put up a solid game if given enough shots.
Michigan 70 at Nebraska 66
Michigan
Michigan just is not a very attractive team right now. They are weak inside, although Horford has been playing well of late, and are weak at the point guard spot. Stauskas is a stud and is the best player on this team. Glenn Robinson was pretty poor against a bad defense in Northwestern, but it may have been due to the ankle injury he suffered against Minnesota. He is cheap and could provide value, but I am hesitant to use him today. Caris LeVert is still playing oodles of minutes but not really doing anything of worth. His shot attempts have decreased and he has been pretty much invisible since the Arizona game. I could get on board using Horford or Morgan if they are really cheap but be aware, they will most likely play 20 minutes and cut into each other’s time.
Nebraska
Nebraska gets to come home after playing 3 of the better teams in the nation at their places in Cincinnati Iowa and Ohio State. They could be looking at this game as a must win with some really winnable games coming up, and I would not be surprised to see them pull an upset. Terran Petteway is the stud here, he takes 30% of the shots, rebounds well, and plays almost all of the game. He should be matched up against the wings of Michigan keeping him close to the ball all night and in position to make plays. Nebraska is going to need a big game out of him, so I like his potential here. Leslee Smith played 25 minutes against Ohio State, picked up 11 points and 10 rebounds, and I would hop he would play another 20+ against Michigan. If he does, look out for valuetown as Smith gets it done when he gets minutes; he is a great rebounder and has a couple of solid post moves. Gallegos is your 3 point specialist who is a GPP play only, and I really do not like him against the long guards of Michigan, he should struggle tonight. Shavon Shields is up and down but has been bad recently as well, so I am not looking his way.
Stanford 77 at Oregon State 75
Stanford
Stanford now has to go into Corvallis after suffering a home lass to California, which will not make the Cardinal feel good. Dwight Powell is the guy here, he is a triple stat threat guy who racks up points rebounds and assists, and should be rostered against a terrible defense in Oregon State. OSU has bigs, but Brandt cannot match Powell’s skill, Moreland is struggling to do anything well at this point, and Gomis just is not very good. I like Powell to go for 20 and 10 tonight, so load him up. Chasson Randle should also get some points as Craig Robinson is using a revolving door of guards to try to find some combination that works. Nastic has been surprisingly effective lately, but I would not trust him against the size of Oregon State. Anthony Brown got somewhat back on track last game, and should get back to his 15-20 point games, and you really know what you will get from Huestis, 10-15 points and 8-13 rebounds, I like him on the upside of those numbers tonight.
Oregon State
Craig Robinson has really annoyed me lately, as he refuses to settle on a rotation. He only played Brandt, Collier, and Moreland 20 minutesi n the last game, and instead decided to use Langston Morris-Walker and Hallice Cooker for 30 minutes, while playing Nelson only 25 minutes. I am not quite sure what he is thinking this game but using Oregon State players now really seems suspect. Eric Moreland is still my favorite play near minimum salary because he is a top 70% guy when playing a full complement. His upside is unquestionable and I am not going to give up on his skil level yet. Nelson’s price has dropped a ton as has his production but he still brings 40pt upside. I would not use Collier as his price shot up and is now only playing 25 minutes per game and the price on most sites has not corrected itsself far enough.
Memphis 71 at Louisville 82
Memphis
This should be a really fun game as 2 uptempo teams will go at it. Memphis loves to run and use their athleticism so I think we could see a lot of fast break points here which would play into Joe Jackson. I cannot argue against Jackson here as he is a basic lock for double digit points and some assists. I am not too much of a fan of any of the other guards but there is value to be had here with Memphis coming off Cincinnati now playing Louisville. David Pellom is now getting 20-25 minutes per game and is producing about 10pts 7reb in that time. With how short Memphis is against Louisville they may need him, especially with the disappearance of Austin Nichols.
Louisville
Montrezl Harrell’s price is at an all time low, but I really think he could post some great numbers against the height challenged Tigers. Harrell should be able to exert his power inside against a bit weaker Goodwin and grab some easy buckets. Harrell is definitely someone I am targeting tonight along with Russ Smith who should have a field day in transition against this Memphis team. Smith will be expensive, but should not disappoint today. Most of everything else is a team effort, however Luke Hancock is showing signs of breaking out of his slump. He has 16 and 15 in his last 2 and is playing more consistent minutes without Behanan. Blackshear should be playing more time but he cannot stay on the court because of foul trouble. He also does not bring any specialty to the table except for his lack of turnovers.
Auburn 73 at Mississippi 84
Auburn
There are two players to consider here, Chris Denson and KT Harrell, both of whom take on the scoring duties for Auburn. Denson has been pretty consistently scoring 25-35 fantasy points every single game, even against Clemson and Iowa State. Denson is still in play today as is Harrell. Playing a decent team however takes Allen Payne out of play in my eyes especially after the monster game heh as last time against Florida A&M. Payne has put up duds in every game against decent competition so I am not chancing it here, just like I am not with any of the role players either.
Mississippi
No Marshall Henderson tonight due to suspension against one of the worst teams at defending the 3. This could be trouble but they are at home and those shots have to go somewhere. Look for Jarvis Summers to continue his hot play, scoring 20+ in the previous 3 games. Summers is a decent price nearly everywhere and is almost a must play tonight. LaDarius White should get all the run he can handle tonight without Marshall Henderson, and could make some nice value. The other option is Millinghaus, but he has been faded out of the offense since the Kansas State game and I think White gets the crack at Henderson’s minutes. I also think that this means that Aaron Jones and Demarco Cox will be asked to do more of the scoring, making them solid plays tonight.
DePaul 63 at Butler 73
DePaul
A typically awful start to the Big East season by DePaul, brings back the theme from years past where Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young are doing all the scoring. Billy Garrett had one os his worst games as a Blue Demon against Creighton, and things are not getting any easier tonight against Butler. I am most likely going to avoid all DePaul players as they will struggle to score 60 at Hinkle against a Butler team who will definitely be focused for this game. The value is in the other side here, as I trust no one but Young and Melvin and their upside is limited.
Butler
I like a few things about Butler here, first they are coming off 2 top 30 defensive teams in Nova and Xavier, and should reach 70 for the first time in 4 games. The last time they did that was against Purdue and Kyle Marshall went for 18-9. Marshall has been struggling lately but I love him for value tonight against a DePaul defense who struggles to defend the 2. I like Marshall more than Dunham as he is a bit cheaper and should grab some rebounds, but Dunham should have a good game as well. I will not argue against Kam Woods either, and Erik Fromm is generally good for value on DS.