College Basketball Grind Down: Thu, Mar 6th
Thursdays are always a light night for NBA so grab a beverage and settle in for a wild night of college basketball. The small conference tournaments are in full swing and we should have our first bid clinchers shortly. It’s the best time of the year right now so sleep is optional at this time. I am going to load up on Red Bull and Monsters and try to catch all the games that are played.
A somewhat small slate of games tonight with only 8 major conference games so I will be able to preview the entire night. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and make sure to check twitter for injuries before lineups lock.
Iowa 77 at Michigan State 81
Iowa
This profiles as the best game of the night, and it also has major tournament impact. Both teams are struggling right now and need to win their last 2 games and make a run in the tournament to secure a high seed. Devyn Marble has absolutely taken over the stud role for Iowa, playing almost the entire game for the past few weeks and putting up monster fantasy numbers. He will be against Harris tonight who is a pretty good defender but Marble should be able to get some in a fast paced game. MSU has been solid defensively but if they have any weakness it’s the 3 point line. Aaron White will most likely get Brandon Dawson who has returned from his broken hand. Dawson is a great defender and White only managed 10-2-7 without Dawson in the lineup. Unless White is ridiculously cheap I’m fading him tonight. Iowa will need Basabe who didn’t play much last week because of the flu. He should be good to go here but I would check and make sure. He makes a solid value play in this one. Gesell has been playing his best basketball lately and makes an interesting punt play against Appling.
Michigan State
This is an incredibly huge game for MSU as they really need to stop the bleeding here. They are at home and against a fast Iowa team who is always good for a fantasy target. I like most of Michigan State in this one including Keith Appling. There are reports coming out of East Lansing that Appling is back to full strength and just needs his confidence in the game to return. He is at a ridiculous bargain and I am going to try to get him in almost everywhere as I think he has a breakout game tonight. Adreian Payne is also a fantastic play as he has been the focus of the offense recently. Payne can score from anywhere on the court and Iowa will let him as they have no one inside or on the perimeter who can match him. I am still a little wary of the brace Dawson uses on his hand, or if he is still going to use it so I would be cautious with him, but of course you have to love Gary Harris in this game as well.
Villanova 71 at Xavier 69
Villanova
This team only has 3 losses (2 to Creighton and 1 to Syracuse) and is in position for a 1 seed. I think they get it if they win the Big East tournament even if they drop this game to Xavier. Nova is skilled, balanced, and can get points from anywhere. I am not a big fan of anyone today but if I had to choose I would go with James Bell whose salary will have taken a dip with that awful game last time out. Bell was good for so long that it’s hard to ignore him here. JayVaughn Pinkston is your most consistent option, and Ryan Arcidiacono could provide some cap relief as he has a few random monster games.
Xavier
The Musketeer faithful breathed a sigh of relief as Stainbrook only has an MCL sprain and should be back for the tournament. Stainbrook’s absence however opens up a whole new door for us fantasy players. Iti s Philmore, James Farr, and Jalen Reynolds who will get the time in Stainbrook’s absence. The safer pick goes to Isaiah Philmore who Chris Mack has the most trust in, however the highest upside goes to Jalen Reynolds who has the most talent of the group and proved it with his 17 point 16 rebound performance against St. John’s. I definitely like both as a value option today and Justin Martin should also get some extra rebounds. I like Semaj Christon as well in this one as he should take a few more shots with the absence of Stainbrook and Villanova’s defense is weak on the perimeter.
UCLA 81 at Washington 76
UCLA
This should be a good one to target for fantasy purposes as well. As long as Anderson isn’t suspended, he makes your top play on the board today, and of course the most expensive. Anderson just does so many things well, against a horrible inside team like Washington he should really have his way in this one. Jordan Adams also makes a good play but I would rather have Anderson here as Washington can at least guard the perimeter some which is where Adams gets a lot of his points. With Anderson and Adams in the lineup, the other players take a back seat and I would only use Travis Wear if desperate, but there are other forward options out there that are safer picks.
Washington
CJ Wilcox has been terrible recently, and I am not sure if that trend can continue. His price is really low right now for a shooter who is as good as he is. Washington has had some time off and time for Wilcox to get his head straight. Desmond Simmons is also a solid play in this one as Washington is going to need someone inside to do the work and he has been getting a solid 30 minutes per game lately while continuing to be extremely cheap. Andrew Andrews has been very solid lately for Washington but I would watch out as I think he has hit his peak in terms of production.
Memphis 66 at Cincinnati 60
Memphis
Cincinnati needs this win and I am sure Mick Cronin is going to have his guys ready to compete on the defensive end of the floor. A lot of the Memphis guys are way too expensive for this game which will be played in the 60s. Cincinnati’s defense is just too tough to roster Joe Jackson, Shaq Goodwin, Austin Nichols or Geron Johnson. I will be fading the entire Memphis team tonight as I usually do to teams against Cincinnati and will find my plays elsewhere.
Cincinnati
Two guys on the Bearcats strike my fancy today, and those are Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson. Kilpatrick as you should know is the high volume, go-to guy for Cincinnati. Kilpatrick puts up huge fantasy lines against anyone and is a fantastic play today. He has scored 20+ in 7 of 9 and I think he gets there today as well even though Memphis has a solid perimeter defense. Kilpatrick is expensive, but I do not see where else Cincinnati gets their points except maybe if Justin Jackson returns to form. Memphis is poor defensively inside and at one point in the season Justin Jackson was tearing teams up in the paint. He has been horrible and in foul trouble lately but if Cincinnati is going to win they are going to need him at full strength. I really like him today especially at a depressed price on most of the sites, especially FanDuel where he will get his 4-5 blocks.
LSU 68 at Vanderbilt 69
LSU
I am fairly surprised to see Vanderbilt favored in this game, but that is good news for fantasy players. Vanderbilt has a solid defense and plays really slow so if I am going to pick any side of this game it won’t be the LSU side. O’Bryant is a stud and so is Mickey, but they are expensive and it’s hard for me to see them making value here in a game where Vandy is going to get the tempo boost. There are lots of good plays out there today and I am straying from LSU.
Vanderbilt
LSU does one thing extremely well, and that is defend the paint, so this is my day to fade Damian Jones. I have been all over him for the past 2 weeks but he could get into some real foul trouble and LSU shut down Randle twice as their post defense is stellar. Rod Odom makes an interesting play as he has really been struggling lately and his price will be low. Odom is 6-9 but plays a lot of the game on the perimeter and is Vandy’s best 3 point shooter. I think he has a rebound game and I also like Kyle Fuller in this one who is cheap especially on FanDuel. Fuller should have a nice 30 point fantasy day today and I will try to roster him in a lot of places. Dai-Jon Parker has been pretty good lately as well and also makes an interesting value play.
Penn State 60 at Northwestern 61
Penn State
This game makes me shudder just thinking about it. Tim Frazier’s price is so low it just tempts you to play him but Northwestern has the ability to gind each game to a halt. It’s a struggle just to get to 60 points against Northwestern and I think that I am going to be fading Penn State here. If I played anyone it would be Frazier, but I do not see the upside there or with any one else on the team. Newbill has been great lately but his ceiling is fairly low in this matchup.
Northwestern
Northwestern gets a little bump in tempo here but what do you do with them? Their offense is putrid, and now that they lost Jershon Cobb for the year, who other than Drew Crawford can score the ball? Tre Demps should have stepped up last game but he only made 2 of 10 3’s. The real guy to step up was Alex Olah who went for 20 points in the game and 7 rebounds. Olah has been fairly solid lately and is worth a look. Northwestern could provide some solid value with Demps and Olah here but how do you trust them? They are always at risk of scoring under 50 points in a game. The good news is that Penn State is a faster team and is bad at defending the 3.
Butler 67 at DePaul 70
Butler
I guess it is fitting that the one of the last games of the year is between the 2 last place teams in the Big East. Butler is just a mess and I am really not sure how to judge them. Dunham should be able to get his looks against a bad DePaul defense, Khyle Marshall landed awkwardly and left the game against Villanova so make sure to check his status. If he cannot go tonight, Kam Woods and Andrew Chrabascz will make solid value plays. I am finding it hard to recommend anyone from Butler in this even against DePaul. Woods did have success against the DePaul frontcourt in their last meeting but that was in 2 OT and Dunham managed 30 points in that game.
DePaul
It’s been all Brandon Young since Melvin was dismissed as it should be. Young makes one of the safest plays on the board today but his price has risen dramatically as he is the one go-to option on DePaul. Butler’s 2 point defense is awful as well so Robinson, Marcius, or Hamilton could have a good game but how can you trust them? Robinson plays on the perimeter, Marcius is off of a 0 point 2 rebound efford and Hamilton has fell out of favor with Coach Purnell. I would rank Brandon Young, then Garrett, and then Marcius for this game.
USC 63 at Washington State 65
USC
This is just ugly now. Wesley only played 25 minutes last game, Enfield is playing everyone a ton of minutes, there is no cohesion to this team at all and they are playing one of the slowest teams in the country. There is no reason to think that any of the players on USC will make a solid fantasy play tonight, as you never know who will get the minutes or take the shots. It is just a disaster and I’m fading the entire team even against the awful perimeter defense that Washington State will trot out there.
Washington State
On the other hand, you have Washington State who is just as terrible of a team however they will get the tempo boost playing USC and are at home in this one. There are 2 guys to consider here in DaVonte Lacy and DJ Shelton. Both are studs as Lacy will shoot 15-20 times per game and rack up the points and Shelton will rack up the rebounds. A fun stat is that last game against Washington, Shelton tried 10 3’s and made zero. Not sure why he thought it was beneficial to shoot 10 three point shots against a team which he can dominate inside, but hey, I guess that is what coaching is for. I do not hate either of those guys tonight and I think they could both pay off their number.