College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Feb 11th
NBA All-Star break is coming up, so no better time to jump into College Basketball. FanDuel’s Before the Madness series is coming up fast and the $10,000 main event already is 1/3rd full. I can only imagine what they will be offering for the weekend events. This Tuesday brings a nice 8 game slate and some decent value plays so let’s get to the analysis.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. Definitely some interesting things to take from Oklahoma State/Texas tonight like Holmes’ injury and minutes projections for the Ok State guards, so be sure to check that out. Other than that college should be the much less frustrating sport over NBA as there are no All-Star break rest concerns here.
Florida 63 at Tennessee 64
Florida
Both of these teams play at a ridiculously slow pace and both play good defense so I am really not liking this game so much. Florida’s minutes just got a bit more complicated with Chris Walker taking some of them so none of their players have much upside even on one of the best teams in the land. Scottie Wilbekin is probably my favorite of the plays as Tennessee’s defensive weakness is guard play. I am not feeling Michael Frazier or Casey Prather and I think Young has a pretty low upside in this one as well. With some other options today I would avoid Florida.
Tennessee
The Vols host the Gators in one of the biggest games for Tennessee this season. The problem here is that as noted above there will not be too many possessions to put up a monster fantasy line. Florida also plays a solid defensive game all around making most of the players on Tennessee poor plays. Florida was able to hold down Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson previously so I think they should be able to handle Jordan McRae. Jarnell Stokes is a man inside but he could have some issues moving around Patric Young who has the physique to match him. I may avoid this game altogether.
Oklahoma State 75 at Texas 77
Oklahoma State
OSU’s season has been in a downward spiral and now they really need a win without Marcus Smart in this one to keep themselves on the right side of the bubble. Who will play point guard is the real question in this one because as you remember, Stevie Clark was dismissed from the team for peeing out of a car window. I can see Phil Forte playing almost the entire game and Markel Brown will spend most of the time at point guard I would imagine. Each of these two guys makes fantastic plays today as both will be asked to score and do a lot more without Smart I have no issue stacking Cowboys in this one as the are going to be short on the bench and Texas will give this game a lot of possessions. Nash, Murphy, and Williams make solid plays as well here.
Texas
First thing to monitor is Jonathan Holmes’ status for today. He is a game-time decision as of the writing of this so if you are setting your lineups without knowing, stay away. Texas’ game against Kansas State was an epic disaster without Holmes, but lots of teams have issues scoring on the Wildcats. If Holmes cannot play, Cameron Ridley gets a bump as does Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix. Connor Lammert and Martez Walker played a bunch of minutes without Holmes but they are risky plays although solid gambles if Holmes remains out. This is definitely a game to target and most of the guys on Texas could be solid gambles with the extra minutes.
Michigan 62 at Ohio State 65
Michigan
Not only did Michigan lose it’s last 2 road games, they did it in awful fashion. Their offense completely stalled and Stauskas was completely invisible in those games. I do not see these trends changing against Ohio State as the Buckeyes have an amazing perimeter defense. I am going to fade Stauskas again today and hope that his salary will continue to drop. Caris LeVert has actually been the best player for Michigan lately and I can see him again being the best play. Glenn Robinson is back on the DFS blacklist for me after putting up a complete dud against Iowa which most of the players did. Robinson has never come through in the big games and I would be surprised to see him break out against Ohio State.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes and Wolverines will probably play a slow, defensive game here so there really isn’t that much that I want to do with this one. Michigan’s weakness is inside so Amir Williams could put up some solid numbers in this game for what he is used to. I think LaQuinton Ross could get some easy buckets inside on drives but that is about it. I really do not see much upside in this one.
Clemson 58 at Notre Dame 59
Clemson
This is another game I may completely ignore. Clemson is essentially the slowest team in America averaging under 60 possessions per game. Their players get a little boost in this game but who are you choosing here other than KJ McDaniels? McDaniels is already somewhat expensive and they are playing away at another slow team. I cannot fault you if you want to use him but I would like other guys around the same price like Markel Brown.
Notre Dame
I hate this spot for the Irish against the 3rd slowest team in the land. Notre Dame isn’t playing well and even though they are at home, they are against one of the best defensive and ferocious teams in the land. You cannot get less upside in a game.
Xavier 67 at Butler 66
Xavier
This normally would not be a game to target but with the other options on the schedule, you may look at this one for some players. Butler has a pretty poor inside defense, albeit better with Chrabascz getting the minutes but still bad. I think Stainbrook has a solid game in this one as he has almost had 4 consecutive double doubles. Stainbrook is a solid play here against a horrible 2 point defense. Christon had a bad game last time out but he should rebound here as I am not sure anyone can check him on the Butler perimeter. I think Justin Martin could have some struggles here but his price is still low on a site like FanDuel where he doesn’t make a terrible play.
Butler
Finally Andrew Chrabascz took most all of Fromm’s minutes and he has ran with it. He scored 22 points against Georgetown and really kept Butler in the game. It really helps to have another scoring option outside of Marshall and Dunham. In fact, Marshall’s value takes a bit of a hit with the emergence of Chrabascz as he will not get as many opportunities. Somewhat surprisingly, Xavier has a poor 3 point defense which could mean good things for Kellen Dunham in this game. I love Chrabascz as a value option and Dunham as an against the grain option in this one. I really wouldn’t choose anyone else as Marshall has rebounding issues and Woods has scoring issues.
Wake Forest 69 at North Carolina State 74
Wake Forest
This should be the 2nd best game to target on the night as both teams are decently uptempo for the offerings tonight. Wake Forest is generally terrible on the road which makes me a little bit scared for this one but NC State is a terrible rebounding team especially on the offensive glass so Devin Thomas and Adala Moto could have solid games. I am a little bit wary of Travis McKie, but he has been playing some solid basketball lately and makes a decent play if cheap. No one else from Wake Forest is really exciting me a lot in this one. Also keep in mind that Codi Miller-McIntyre is questionable for this game so if he is out the onus is going to fall on Travis McKie and Devin Thomas to hold up the offensive end.
North Carolina State
I love TJ Warren in this game and he should put up his normal 25 and 10. NC State actually has a better chance at the NCAA tournament than most think and this game is almost a must. NC State is coming off of a ridiculously slow game against Miami where Warren still managed to score 27. Tyler Lewis has been taking Anthony Barber’s minutes so I would avoid that situation as I still think Barber is the better player. Warren is the stud here and you should try to get him into your lineup.
Marquette 66 at Seton Hall 68
Marquette
One thing about Buzz Williams that I dislike is that I can really never figure out where he is going with his lineups. He frustrates me greatly when he refuses to play Gardner lots of minutes, will not start him, but will stick with him at the end of games and play him 20 minutes straight in overtime games. Gardner is the top play for Marquette, especially if he gets the minutes, but this one is really speculative to his upside. His price really increased after his massive game against Villanova and hasn’t really falled all that much. I really want to go with Jamil Wilson as well but he has played 13 and 24 minutes in the last 2 games. He is the type of guy that can produce given the minutes. The most consistent minute getter is Derrick Wilson, but he really doesn’t produce in any statistical categories so I wouldn’t choose him. On a short slate with a only a few solid games you may have to look at Marquette but I really do not like them for DFS purposes.
Seton Hall
Finally the Pirates are getting healthy and potentially contending in the Big East. This is a huge game for them and one they must win. No matter what happens, Fuquan Edwin is still the #1 option and best scorer on this team. He takes a lot of 3’s which is the way to attack Marquette especially if they are playing zone. Edwin had an off game against Villanova but I am sensing a bounce-back here. Aside from Edwin, you can count on Auda, Teague, and Gibbs to get 30+ minutes. I love Teague’s potential but he has a penchant for fouling and makes a solid gamble play but is definitely a risk. Sterling Gibbs has really impressed me this year and is one of the most underappreciated point guards in the land. I like him tonight against Marquette as well as their guards do not play the best defense. To put it bluntly, Auda has been awful lately and is going to be cheap. I may contemplate rostering him but he doesn’t have a good matchup.
Mississippi 69 at Alabama 71
Mississippi
Time for the Marshall Henderson show! Or not, because Alabama has one of the better perimeter defenses in the land. Alabama does not give up the 3 very easily and they play a slow tempo. The team to target here is not Ole Miss who will be slowed down away from home. Henderson to me is a clear fade and I’m also going to be faing Summers. If you want to take a chance on someone I would go with one of the forwards, but choosing between them is like picking a salsa at a salsa bar; depends on which one is feeling right that day. I am partial to Perez as he is cheaper and he has more talent than the others in my opinion but he isn’t the biggest minutes getter, that would go to Aaron Jones. Sebastian Saiz has also been coming on lately.
Alabama
Alabama is in a fairly good spot here playing at home against a team they can beat. Ole Miss will give them a little tempo boost and gives up the 3 which should make life a bit easier for Trevor Releford tonight. Releford is the only consistent option on the team and really the only guy I trust to put the ball in the basket. Randolph and Jacobs have been relegated to 20 minutes per game by Anthony Grant, probably because they have been playing awful. Rodney Cooper has been getting 30+ minutes consistently but he is one of the most inconsistent players you will ever see. Certain games he looks like a solid wing but other games yout wouldn’t even know he is on the court. He is a gamble tonight but is cheap enough that it could pay off. I think there is enough value on Oklahoma State and Texas that you do not have to worry about him. Really no one else is striking a chord as a guy who I would trust today here.