College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Feb 18th
The all-star weekend was a pretty solid success for CBB games as most of the big guarantees filled and there appears to be a greater demand for not only CBB games but DFS content as well. It was fairly disappointing for me as I did not bink any of the big tournaments but still managed to have a decent weekend with some above average lineups.
I hope the momentum from this weekend continues into Tuesday as there are some solid games to target, and games to avoid with Clemson and Virginia playing tonight. DS has really bumped up the guarantees and I want to give a big shout out to them as they are offering a $55 100 man tonight and a $22 1000 man for Wednesday’s action. That is Wednesday however, so let’s get back to Tuesday’s games.
Texas 76 at Iowa State 81
Texas
Fire up another Big 12 game which will be a fun back and forth affair here. Texas has really been balanced and efficient in winning their last 2 games but should have a little bit more trouble today playing at Hilton. I still like Isaiah Taylor as he continues to be pretty cheap on DK and FD and I like Ridley against the height challenged Cyclones. Jonathan Holmes returned and played a little over 20 minutes in the last game and was efficient as usual. He could make a really solid play tonight as Texas will look to incorporate him back into the main game plan. I think Felix’s salary is a little inflated right now and I do not like anyone else on Texas.
Iowa State
Melvin Ejim has came back to earth after his ridiculous 70+ fantasy point performance against TCU. I am not saying he cannot do that again but that performance increased his salary so greatly that it is hard for him to make value. While Ejim has decreased in production a bit, DeAndre Kane is back to playing really well and putting up ridiculous numbers. I like Kane today over Ejim especially if Kane is cheaper. Georges Niang also makes a solid play and I like Dustin Hogue in this one even though he has been struggling a bit. Monte Morris has been a solid value play on DK and should continue to be if his price is under 3800.
Villanova 73 at Providence 69
Villanova
I bet the Wildcats are glad that they are done with Creighton for the rest of the regular season. Creighton owned them for 1.4 points per possession and picked apart their defense. Providence is going to try to slow the Wildcats down so I am not too high on Villanova today as they run a fairly balanced offense without a go-to player. They were able to put up a 90 spot at home against Provy but things have changed since then and being on the road will make a difference. James Bell has been an absolute stud and is basically a guarantee for 15+ points and some rebounds. I really do not like anyone else however as I think Providence has the size to force Pinkston into some poor decisions and no one else is consistent.
Providence
The Friars are at home here and will get a nice tempo boost from ‘Nova in this one. I see them keeping this competitive for at minimum 30 minutes and could even win the game. Bryce Cotton is in a nice spot to use him as he had 25-6-6 in a pretty bad blowout loss last time. Other than Cotton in that game, basically everyone was a disappointment but that should change here. I think Batts, Henton, and Fortune all have solid chances to make value in this one.
Kentucky 76 at Mississippi 72
Kentucky
The most frustrating part of Kentucky right now for me is the 5. It is hard to determine who is going to get the minutes, Cauley-Stein or Dakari Johnson as Calipari appears to go with his gut. I am going to stay away for DFS purposes in their case. The one guy who is impressing me and changing my opinion of him is Andrew Harrison. Recently he has really been attacking the rim and making buckets close to the rim because he can’t really make jump shots. He plays most of the game and is a solid value still on most sites. The one thing that worries me however is Mississippi’s solid interior defense. The one guy who could have a really big game for his value in this one is Julius Randle. Randle does some of his best work on the offensive glass and Mississippi is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation. I like Randle’s value potential today. I am avoiding Aaron Harrison like the plague and James Young is just too inconsistent for me.
Mississippi
I really thought that Marshall Henderson would have a huge game against Kentucky last time out, and he would have had he hit a good portion of the 12 threes he took. Henderson is really the only guy in this game who has me confident at all as Andy Kennedy continues to play with lineups and minutes and uses his multiple forwards only 25 minutes per game. I really liked Anthony Perez for value recently but he was pretty bad in the last game and his floor is really low even with a small salary. Jarvis Summers is a stud and should be playing more minutes which I am sure he will against Kentucky. Even at home, Mississippi players make me nervous here.
Kansas 73 at Texas Tech 68
Kansas
I was completely burned by fading Perry Ellis against TCU and it essentially cost me high finishes on Saturday. The earliest report I have heard is that Embiid could definitely play so Ellis’ value will take a little bit of a hit with Embiid’s return. In fact, the opponent also gives everyone’s value here a bit of a hit. Texas Tech was able to slow down Iowa State and force them into playing their style of game in Hilton, so I think they can do a little bit of damage to Kansas here. I am off of Tharpe, Wiggins, Ellis, and Embiid today and if Embiid does come back, Tarik Black and Jamari Traylor go back into unplayable status.
Texas Tech
One thing Tubby Smith has done for Texas Tech is turned them from a fun, top 100 tempo team to almost the slowest team in the nation. They are horrible to watch and it is really a struggle for any team to get any rhythm against them. Jaye Crockett is the #1 option and continues to be cheap on some sites. Crockett should have a solid game in this one and makes a pretty decent option. Toddrick Gotcher gets a lot of minutes for his price but is not usually a reliable option. Jordan Tolbert has really been struggling and I do not like him against Kansas’ defense. This is a risky game to take players from and I think it could just be a pass.
Iowa 79 at Indiana 73
Iowa
When Iowa lost 3 of 5 games a couple of weeks ago, it appeared their Big 10 title dreams went down the drain. Just wait a week however and with losses by MSU and Michigan, things are back looking up for the Hawkeyes. Like usual, Iowa will play fast and run a rotation of 10 players out there. I think it is a bit risky to use Hawkeyes today as Indiana is a solid defensive team and has been playing much slower recently than their season tempo would indicate. Melsahn Basabe has been producing well lately but could struggle here against Vonleh and the size of Indiana. The one guy I would like is Devyn Marble who will most likely be asked to score a ton. Mike Gesell has been playing some great basketball as well and makes a solid value option.
Indiana
I like the Hoosiers in this spot for value even though they are coming off 3 straight losses. They are playing a fast team at home and salaries are pretty depressed after their horrible offensive performances recently. Hanner Mosquera-Perea is not in the picture after his arrest and Hollowell has completely lost favor with Crean so the rotation is a bit smaller here. I am loving Yogi Ferrell today and I also love Vonleh. Vonleh is pretty cheap and should do well against Iowa. I have no qualms about using both as well. The rest of Indiana is really risky as even Will Sheehey does not put up consistent fantasy games.
Duke 79 at Georgia Tech 68
Duke
Is it time to give up on Quinn Cook? He was such a great player and DFS asset at times last season but he really cannot get it together right now. He is the reason that I do not believe that Duke is a legitimate title contender. Without him playing at his peak, they will lose to a better team than Maryland fairly easily. Cook’s minutes will be interesting to monitor as he still is a solid play if he plays the entire game. Jabari Parker is obviously the guy to own here as he can score at will around the rim and also rebounds due to Duke’s height deficiency. Rodney Hood has really been frustrating lately and is at a ridiculous low price considering his early season production. Hood had a monster game against Georgia Tech earlier in the season scoring 27 points. Most of the Duke starters are in play here, just be careful with Cook.
Georgia Tech
I liked Daniel Miller last time these two teams played and Miller came out with a decent game and I think he has another shot at a really good game here. The problem is that Georgia Tech is really struggling with some injury issues as Trae Golden is questionable for this game and Kammeon Holsey hasn’t practiced hardly at all this week. If Golden cannot go look towards Corey Heyward and Chris Bolden for value options and if Holsey cannot go fire up Robert Carter who is trying to work himself back into game form coming back from his own injury. Tech could have a lot of value in this game but make sure you pay close attention to twitter for injury news.
Wake Forest 68 at Maryland 77
Wake Forest
After losing to Florida State and taking a 4-3 record in the ACC into 4-8, the Demon Deacons have to go to Maryland in a game that does not look good for a win either. Wake Forest is really frustrating for me as they really have no consistent players. Devin Thomas is my favorite but he has really been struggling lately and does not have a good matchup against Maryland. Travis McKie is very cheap almost everywhere but who trusts him? McKie can put up big numbers in minutes but he can also be totally invisible at times. Codi Miller-McIntyre is one of the highest used guys in this offense but has been struggling to put up numbers. The Deacons are away and I do not particularly like any of them today.
Maryland
How will Maryland respond to the Duke loss in a game they shouldn’t have lost? Charles Mitchell’s response to missing the last shot by a hair will definitely be interesting. Evan Smotrycz is quite possibly the most frustrating player and a guy who really is not doing much in the offense anymore and is a clear fade to me. I am going to try to roster Dez Wells as he may be the most consistent producer and possibly be a contrarian pick as I do not think many people realize how good he has been lately. Jake Layman is a really inconsistent but makes a decent GPP gamble and another solid play is Seth Allen who should get back to his taking and making 3 game against Wake Forest. I like Maryland in this game as they should be able to score against Wake who is awful on the road.
Georgia 60 at Tennessee 71
Georgia
Yes, the Bulldogs are 3rd place by themselves in the SEC. Are they a legitimate NCAA tournament contender? No, not in my mind. I am fully expecting Georgia to get blown out in this game so I would really use caution with their players. Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines are the only two I would consider using here especially against the strong Tennessee frontcourt. You can just ignore all of the Georgia forwards.
Tennessee
Jarnell Stokes has been just average recently but I think he will snap out of that here. I think Stokes gets a double double fairly easy against the Georgia bigs even though Georgia has a pretty solid 2 point defense. Jordan McRae is a stud and will get his points especially if the Georgia defense is limiting Stokes inside. Tennessee is going to need to pressure Georgia as they are horrible at turning the ball over which could end up with a lot of fast break points for McRae. Josh Richardson could be a sneaky play here as he has been scoring the ball pretty well lately.