College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Feb 25th
It really just hit me that conference tournaments will be starting up in the next week. This season has gone way too fast just like every season but the best is still to come. I think this year’s tournament is going to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable and I’m going to enjoy every game leading up to it.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. There are 9 games tonight and some really low scoring ones so finding the top play is going to be imperative in my opinion. Eight games is around my favorite to break down and it is also my favorite to play as there should not be too much overlap depending on injuries and such.
Iowa 78 at Minnesota 74
Iowa
Iowa continues to lose games but is really not doing any damage to their overall profile. They still profile as one of the top teams in the nation with a real shot at making the final four. We know by now that they are one of the quickest teams in the nation, but now they go to Minnesota who is one of the slowest. I am avoiding everyone not named Marble or White in this one and really wouldn’t be excited to use either. Iowa plays so many people it’s really a crapshoot who gets hot and plays the most minutes. They are also fairly balanced on offense so not even their go to players are guarantees.
Minnesota
That was one of the worst halves of the year the 2nd half of the game against Ohio State. Looking at the numbers, they have scored 46 against Ohio State and 48 against Illinois. Their offense is like trying to cram a concrete slab through a tree chipper. Even with their awful offense in play, there really is nowhere from here to go up. Most of their players should be fairly cheap and I like Andre Hollins in this matchup. There is something to say about the #1 option on a team being one of the cheapest options on the board in a plus matchup. I also like Mathieu who has been one of the only bright spots for the Gophers. Joey King may also be an interesting value play as he has gotten around 30 minutes per game the last 3 and should be extremely cheap.
Kansas State 62 at Texas Tech 63
Kansas State
Looking closer at the Wildcats resume, there really is not much there except their overtime win against Kansas. They are not even favored on KenPom in this game in what should be a slow defensive battle. Shane Southwell returned last game and is extremely cheap all over the industry but is very hard to trust right now. Marcus Foster is the stud but I am not really considering this game as I see no way that these teams combine for 140 points. Texas Tech is weak in the paint so Thomas Gipson is the only other gamble I would consider.
Texas Tech
I only like considering Texas Tech players if they are playing one of the fast teams in the Big 12. When they play a slow team like Kansas State, they play sub 65 possessions. Jaye Crockett had a nice game against KState the last time out but I really do not like anyone here. Jordan Tolbert is very inconsistent, Kravic’s minutes are inconsistent and Robert Turner and Toddrick Gotcher will randomly put you up a bagel.
Missouri 69 at Georgia 70
Missouri
The Tigers have had one hell of a time finding anyone who can play solid minutes in the paint this year. Their 3 headed guard play may be the best in the nation but they are so weak down low they are wavering on the bubble. Earnest Ross, Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson are all solid plays here against Georgia as Georgia has a great interior defense and a pretty bad perimeter defense. They are all expensive so you may only be able to afford one but they have some of the biggest upside.
Georgia
Can anyone believe that Georgia is this close to locking up the 3 seed in the SEC tournament? In fact, if they win out and pick up a couple of wins in the SEC tournament can the committee ignore the #3 team in the SEC who went 13-5 in conference? It would be an interesting argument. Charles Mann has struggled in the last 2 games but remains the go-to guy when on the court. I think Mann is still a solid play where cheap here. Kenny Gaines is the best scorer on the team and has been proving it lately. The issue with Gaines is he only scores and doesn’t rebound or assist so he’s going to have to make shots to make an impact. The other guy on Georgia that intrigues me is Marcus Thornton. He is a double double threat but also has his complete dud games. Use with caution.
Xavier 66 at St. John’s 72
Xavier
Matt Stainbrook has been really bad for some reason lately and it doesn’t get any easier here against St. John’s elite interior defense. I am completely off Stainbrook for this game, but Justin Martin has really emerged as a nice threat for Xavier. He has been way too cheap on multiple sites recently but doesn’t have the greatest matchup against a solid St. John’s defensive team. He went 15-6 last game which is about what I expect out of him today. I like Semaj Christon and think he will be the best player on the court in this one. He should be fairly affordable and is able to contribute in multiple ways which helps with consistency. I would not use Dee Davis as he is one of the most inconsistent players I have seen.
St. John’s
I am completely over the Chris Obekpa situation. The ankle clearly bothered him against Villanova and he didn’t play much so I hope it has healed some. He is still extremely cheap on FanDuel and is a pretty solid play there. Xavier’s issues come on the perimeter though so I would look towards Harrison and Rysheed Jordan to make value in this one. This game strikes me as the type of game where Harrison will shoot 20 times so his upside is pretty high here.
Clemson 60 at Wake Forest 58
Clemson
I love breaking down Clemson because it essentially comes down to, “Do I want to pay up for KJ McDaniels today?” and to me if he is cheap it may be a good day to do it. There aren’t many super high pace games today so a 24-12 day from KJ could really be clutch in winning some of your leagues. I really like McDaniels on FanDuel because he contributes a lot in blocks and steals as well.
Wake Forest
This team is just really embarrassing. I am not going to be trying to target anyone here not even Devin Thomas. They are coming off 2 70 possession games against teams with worse defenses. I would be surprised if they break 60 in this one, and would be surprised if anyone made value. I have been toying with Travis McKie on FanDuel because he is so cheap but against Clemson here it looks like a complete avoid team for me.
Florida 64 at Vanderbilt 57
Florida
If you didn’t have enough slowness in Clemson/Wake Forest, this game should also be extremely slow. This is a danger spot for Florida and while I would be surprised if they lost, I could certainly see why. I think Florida struggles to score in this one and with their now deep rotation and big salaries, I don’t think anyone pays off their number here. Vandy has the innate ability to slow a team down and keep them from scoring and Florida likes to win games 65-50. If I had to pick someone to reach value, I am probably going with Casey Prather but his upside is fairly limited.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in almost the same position as Wake Forest as the Clemson defense is just as good as Florida’s. Vandy should really struggle to score here and no one is really attractive from their team. Damian Jones has been playing well and should continue to be a cheap option and may be the only guy I consider. Rod Odom has been struggling and I would like an easier matchup before catching him at the low point of his salary. Kyle Fuller struggled in the last game but he is usually one of the most consistent producers.
Seton Hall 74 at DePaul 72
Seton Hall
Sterling Gibbs was suspended last game for not bringing his A game in practice which is a bit concerning. He should be back in this one which would be a nice boost to everyone on the Hall’s fantasy value. Fuquan Edwin is the scorer and should be a solid guy to own here as DePaul just doesn’t know how to defend. I also like Gene Teague in this one as he may have regained early season form and DePaul has a horrible frontcourt. Seton Hall is definitely a team to target here and as long as Gibbs plays I like him too. I am not a big fan of Auda, but Brian Oliver and Brandon Mobley have innate abilities to pull random games out of no where. They are GPP only options to me.
DePaul
I am glad I had a piece of Brandon Young on a couple of sites last game as he went off in overtime against Marquette. His price will have risen and it makes it harder for him to hit value today against Seton Hall. The thing Young has going for him is that he is really the only guy who can score other than Billy Garrett and they will just take turns attacking the basket. Garrett makes a good play as he is a bit cheaper than Young and really has taken on more of the scoring role with Melvin suspended. As long is Garrett is still much cheaper than BY I would rather have Garrett here. No one else on DePaul is any good and they spread the minutes around which doesn’t make anything good for fantasy.
Indiana 63 at Wisconsin 75
Indiana
This game looks pretty bleak for the Hoosiers. They have been struggling to score over 70 in the last month and now face a good defensive team who isn’t going to let you get anything easy and will slow down the pace. You need to make jumpers to beat Wisconsin and Indiana doesn’t have anyone who can do that except for Ferrell and sometimes Sheehey. Ferrell is a little bit too expensive for my tastes today especially in a lineup which isn’t the best, and none of the other guys are making me want to play them. There are so many teams that probably won’t score very much that you may need to take a chance on someone.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is really playing well right now as they have won away games at Iowa and Michigan in the last week. Now they come home and face an Indiana team who has really been playing slow lately even though their season metric is a very high tempo. Frank Kaminsky has been great lately and I would look for him to keep it going today. If his price hasn’t risen, he makes another solid play in this one. I also like Nigel Hayes for minimum salary as when he is on the court he finds ways to affect the game in good ways. Sam Dekker should also have a nice game but I do not trust any of the other 3 starters. Wisconsin is very balanced and will spread it around to get the best shot possible. Very rarely do they provide a fantasy superstar.
Virginia Tech 59 at Duke 81
Virginia Tech
The Hokies are going to get blown out in this game so using their players as a fantasy asset is risky but because of all of the bad matchups tonight you may need to take some risks. One guy who has really played well recently is Devin Wilson who is running the point effectively for James Johnson group. It helps that Adam Smith is nowhere to be found but I think Wilson would still play 35 minutes per game with Smith considering how well he has played. Jarell Eddie is supposed to be the go to scorer on Tech but he has been so incredibly inconsistent in ACC play; all he is doing now is shooting 3’s. He makes a GPP gamble but I don’t trust him here. Trevor Thompson is an interesting play as he has been playing well but keep an eye on this injury situation, Adam Smith, Cadarian Raines and Ben Emelogu were all questionable last time out and may play in this one. It may just be best to avoid the entire situation if you can.
Duke
Well, I think Jabari Parker makes the top overall play today. Duke has been playing at a slow tempo against some defensive teams and Parker has still put up numbers. You know he will score and he will rebound so a double double seems like an almost lock. If you can afford him, I think he needs to be rostered today especially because Duke will most likely blow this game out. He will still get his 35 minutes and will be a big part in the blowout. Someone else is also going to step up and score here, whether it is Rodney Hood, Quinn Cook, or Sulaimon I am unsure, but someone else is going to be a solid play on Duke. If you want to stack Duke today I wouldn’t have a problem with it especially with all of the other bad matchups out there.