College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Feb 4th
I have had a bit of an absence recently, but it’s back to the grind and the normal schedule of the Grind Down, which will run Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. College Basketball is in full swing right now and in one and a half months will we be filling out those brackets and getting ready for the best sporting event on the planet.
One of the good things about college basketball is that every successive Saturday means more than the last, and essentially every game means more than the last. I am hoping that we will see that with the prize pools. The game has grown a ton since the first month and I am seeing a lot of new blood in the game recently which is very nice. As always, stat projections are from KenPom.com, and use twitter for late breaking injury news.
Kansas 73 at Baylor 69
Kansas
The Big 12 posts a solid game every single day they run games out there. They have one of the best conferences in the land and the #1 conference for daily fantasy players as a bunch of their teams play at a high tempo. Baylor is not one of those teams. Baylor is the 2nd slowest team in the Big 12 and now Kansas has to go into their court and attempt to beat a team who is desperate for a win. Baylor is solid defensively inside with all of the height and strength they can put out there so I will be passing on Embiid and am also passing on Wiggins as I do not believe there will be much of a transition game. Perry Ellis is also a risky pick but he has been so cheap at certain places. If I was gambling on anyone it would be Naadir Tharpe or Wayne Selden, but with those two you never know what you will get I would play them only in GPPs. Last time these two teams met, those 2 had horrible games so I may avoid everyone here.
Baylor
Bayor was 1-6 in the Big 12 going to Oklahoma State without Kenny Chery, their point guard. Auto-loss right? Nope, the Bears continue to befuddle the nation by actually winning. Now they face one of the biggest games of their year to expand their bubble a bit. Kenny Chery is questionable for this game, so make sure you check his status if you plan on playing him. He was garbage against Kansas in their last meeting and really does not bring the upside that Pierre Jackson did last year. Baylor has just been extremely frustrating for DFS purposes as Cory Jefferson continues to be inconsistent and Isaiah Austin continues to underperform. Rico Gathers puts up points when he gets minutes but you never know how much he will play.
Ohio State 66 at Iowa 73
Ohio State
It was just earlier last month that people were calling Ohio State dominant until Ohio State showed everyone they still have no reliable jump shooter and their offense is pretty horrible for a top team. Now they visit Iowa who plays a nice tempo, but also defends the ball fairly well. Ohio State played Iowa earlier at home and scored 74 points in doing so with a huge game from LaQuinton Ross and menial contributions from other players. Now they have to travel to Iowa in a game I feel they may lose by 10. The only guy I would look at here is LaQuinton Ross who should again post solid numbers against Iowa and I would possibly look at Craft if close to the bottom. There really isn’t anyone on Ohio State who is consistent at all at scoring.
Iowa
Ohio State’s defensive profile makes it really easy to pick players in this game. Just go with any Iowa post players like Aaron White and Melsahn Basabe. Basabe had a great game last time against Ohio State, but so did Devyn Marble who managed to take a ton of 2’s and get close to the basket. I think that Ohio State does a better job of defending Marble in this game so I am avoiding him. A lot of times Iowa plays everyone 20 minutes which makes it a bit more difficult to pick guys from this team.
Wisconsin 66 at Illinois 63
Wisconsin
You could look at the last time these two played and see a bunch of possessions, a bunch of points, and expect that this game would be the same. This would be a huge mistake as these teams have changed a ton since then. Since that game, Wisconsin has not played any game above 70 possessions and has also not played good offense at all. Illinois has been even worse, losing 7 in a row. I really feel like this will be a low possession, grind it out, defensive game, completely unlike what it was last game. I wouldn’t advise taking anyone from Wisconsin as they were very balanced against Illinois and you never know who will be the guy to own.
Illinois
Illinois’ offense has been completely awful lately. I really wouldn’t recommend anyone on their team against Wisconsin except for maybe Rayvonte Rice, although he also has been a disappointment recently and remains overpriced on a site like FanDuel. There isn’t anyone consistent or exciting enough to warrant consideration.
St. John’s 64 at Providence 68
St. John’s
This game is a little bit more interesting, but involves St. John’s, so it involves me hating this game. Both teams play decent defense and pretty inept offense but the good news for St. John’s is the guy who can actually score the ball for them got hot last game and scored 27. D’Angelo Harrison has been really disappointing but the guy can really fill it up when given opportunities and when he is shooting well. I would look towards him today but I really do not trust anyone else on the Red Storm. Sampson was pretty bad in the last game and the height of Providence I expect to really frustrate him. Rysheed Jordan played a lot of minutes and makes the 2nd best play here. Obekpa has some insane upside on FanDuel but that’s the only place I would play him.
Providence
Last time these two played they had a wild 2 overtime game in which St. John’s was able to hold Bryce Cotton to a pretty poor total. Then the 2nd half of the 2nd half and the 2 overtimes happened and Cotton went for 21-8-8. Cotton should be in line for another stellar game as St. John’s plays solid inside defense but really nothing else. I also like Tyler Harris and LaDontae Henton here, and Kadeem Batts does not make a bad play. Providence is a team who will play Cotton, Henton, Harris and Batts as many minutes as they can get as long as they are not in foul trouble. Josh Fortune is the other guy who gets a ton of minutes but he is never involved in the offense.
Maryland 72 at North Carolina 81
Maryland
This is definitely a game to target tonight. Both teams are pretty uptempo and do not have a problem with playing a lot of possessions. My favorite play on Maryland tonight is on Seth Allen whose minutes restriction appears to be lifted as he has been good for 30 mpg lately. Allen played really well in their last game and should continue that here. I also like Evan Smotrycz in this game although I think the length of Carolina could give him some issues. The 3 headed monster at 5 of Mitchell, Cleare, and Graham is something I cannot get on board with using, and neither is Nick Faust. Dez Wells always makes an interesting play in an uptempo game but he does not bring as much upside as Allen due to his lack of rebounds and assists.
North Carolina
UNC is a team that cannot shoot the 3 against a team who is horrible against defending the 3 and is pretty solid at defending the interior. I think this means big games for Marcus Paige and also a nice game for Leslie McDonald who looks to continue his hot play of late. James Michael McAdoo has been really good at getting to the line recently and has been doing a good job of attacking which is the only way for him to score. He makes a fairly low risk, higher price option today and i think he goes for 18-8. The only other guy here is Kennedy Meeks who really puts up solid numbers in the minutes he plays. He rebounds well and can score around the basket but for him to get 20+ minutes is really rare which scares me.
Missouri 60 at Florida 71
Missouri
It has to be noted what an incredible job Jabari Brown has been doing lately. The kid looks amazing recently and had such a monster game against Kentucky. I honestly think that Brown and Clarkson are the best backcourt combo in America right now. I am interested to see the matchups tonight as Florida has an amazing interior defense which is able to stop Clarkson’s drives, so I would put Wilbekin on Brown. Wilbekin is one of the top perimeter defenders and will make either one struggle. For this reason, and for price, I am fading both Clarkson and Brown today, and most of the entire Missouri team as their point total should be low. The one guy I might take a gamble on is Earnest Ross if he is affordable enough.
Florida
My fault last Saturday about Chris Walker, as I really thought he was playing. Well, he is playing tonight and even though Billy Donovan said to not expect a savior, if he is minimum salary I think you have to roster him. The kid is a top talent, is a monster inside and should be able to grab a plethora of rebounds over Patric Young. I would fade Young since I think Walker takes some of his production. Finney-Smith and Yeguete also get bumps down as well in my book. I still like Wilbekin as a cheap H2H play if he is there as he should rack up the assists in this one. Really no one on Florida is exciting me too much in this game except for Walker at min salary.
Mississippi 70 at Kentucky 83
Mississippi
I may be way off base here, but I think Ole Miss matches up really well with Kentucky in this game. Their offense runs through Summers and Henderson who are 2 really quick guards who can really take advantage of the Harrisons’ defensive weaknesses. I really think Henderson is going to attempt to shoot the lights out in this game and could attempt 15-20 3 pointers in my opinion. I am not really enamored with any of the Ole Miss forwards for fantasy purposes as they all split time and all have a chance at foul trouble against the bigs of Kentucky.
Kentucky
Just like LSU, the Rebels struggle to defend the 3 and are very solid against the 2 point field goal. I liked James Young against LSU and I think he can replicate that performance tonight against Mississippi. In that game against LSU, Julius Randle really struggled. Ole Miss has a bunch of big bodies to throw at Julius Randle as well, they can go with Perez, Saiz, Cox, or Jones and all are good at help side blocks. If they can keep Randle off the offensive glass I think he is hard pressed to make value. Willie Cauley-Stein has essentially disappeared from the rotation which is really concerning. I am dropping him from any considerations. Just like against LSU, Kentucky will need to find some secondary outside scoring so the Harrison twins are in play here as much as I hate to admit it.
Texas 74 at TCU 64
TCU
The Horned Frogs get Texas at home, but all that means is they get to lose even when scoring close to 70. TCU gets Karviar Shepherd back which helps but they are by far the worst team in the conference. Their offense is completely awful and the only 2 guys who can do anything are Amric Fields and Kyan Anderson. I do not particularly like either today unless both are extremely affordable. I would give the edge to Kyan Anderson here but he tends to be more expensive than Fields.
Texas
This is not a good spot for Texas either in my mind. They are missing Javan Felix in this game and will be facing a zone with a lack of jump shooters. I may target Jonathan Holmes as he could have a solid game but I think Taylor could struggle without a backcourt mate and his salary has risen. This game really scares me both ways and I think both teams could struggle mightily here.
Wake Forest 68 at Duke 87
Wake Forest
The one way to attack Duke is by getting the ball inside which has been proven all season long. Anyone big has a chance against their weak interior. Even in a potential blowout game I think Devin Thomas could have a solid game and even Cavanaugh might be a sneaky option here. Travis McKie has been playing really well of late and could be a sneaky option although I think Rodney Hood lines up against McKie and shuts him down. I really wouldn’t use anyone else as this game could turn into a laugher by the 2nd half of the 2nd half.
Duke
The number one ranked offense in efficiency gets to face a team who is just miserable on the road and has a hard time guarding the interior. Jabari Parker makes a fantastic play tonight and as long as he gets the minutes I think he goes for a really solid stat line. I also like Amile Jefferson to continue his strong play. Hood usually likes to drift around the outside so I am not as bullish on him as the others but it’s hard to argue with a team that may score 90 in regulation. I am still waiting for the breakout game from Quinn Cook but he has failed to have any good games recently so I think it is a wait and see approach with him.
Rutgers 69 at Memphis 86
Rutgers
This is definitely a game I am looking to target tonight. Myles Mack regained his starting role and played well in a high tempo game against Houston. He seems to finally understand the point guard position and should be in a good spot to produce fantasy points tonight. I really like Kadeem Jack in this one as well who should be able to go to town on Memphis’ short frontcourt. Rutgers should have some value but the real value is going to come from Memphis.
Memphis
SMU took Memphis to the woodshed on Saturday, and do not think this team is too happy about it. Rutgers is a joke defensively, so look for Joe Jackson to take this game over early and to provide value. I also like Shaq Goodwin to rebound after his horrible performances in the last 2 games. Chris Crawford should make some 3’s and Geron Johnson should also play a solid game. Rutgers just cannot play defense and I think Memphis could get to 90 as well in this one.