College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Jan 14th
I have noticed some new blood coming into College Hoops recently and the guarantees on the GPPs are starting to grow, which is great news. On days with not a lot of NBA, and you need your basketball fix, college is a good game to play. Don’t know much? Do not worry as I have a breakdown of all the games going on tonight right here to help you make an educated decision on who to play.
This Tuesday is shorter than most with only a couple of games which I am targeting heavily. There are a couple of injury concerns as well which I will touch on later in the article. As always, the score projections are from KenPom.com. Let’s get right into it.
Kentucky 81 at Arkansas 79
Kentucky
Definitely a game where I will be targeting players from, Arkansas loves to play at a monster tempo, ranking 9th in the country in possessions. This bodes very well for Kentucky who is coming off a snail in Vanderbilt. James Young is your ultimate risk/reward play here but he does well in fast tempos and should make a good play. I actually like Aaron Harrison today, and he should be cheap. I think he is a tad better of a play than Andrew Harrison if they are around the same price. I am really not sure what to make of Randle at this point. He is a stud when he is on the floor but he has had so many issues with cramps lately, one has to worry that this is a conditioning issue that is bigger than we all think. This will be a back and forth game, with a ton of action, so there is monster upside but a perfect spot for cramps. No question he is value priced right now, but drink some water big man! Willie Cauley-Stein makes another solid play as he feasts against teams like this and has been solid lately even without the blocks. It’s hard to dislike anyone from Kentucky here.
Arkansas
Here we go again, playing go fish with Mike Anderson for minutes. Last game against Florida, he played Qualls, Portis, and Madden the most so those 3 are looking like your best plays here. I think Portis is the best play as they will need his height to match up with the height of Kentucky. Qualls has been a bit inconsistent with minutes, so be careful there, and Madden played probably his best game of the year against Florida last time out. He should be rewarded in this one, although who knows what Anderson will do. The other guy I would think about taking here is Coty Clarke who is rebounding like a beast and is good for 20+ minutes.
Wisconsin 74 at Indiana 67
Wisconsin
The Badgers go to Assembly Hall looking to remain undefeated and keep their inside track to the Big 10 title. I knew this team was good and liked them for a top 3 spot in the Big 10 but I did not think they would be talked about this much. They have a very easy Big 10 schedule so we may see them garner a high seed and falter in the tournament. Anyways, they play Indiana today who is top 20 in tempo, but this game is only projected for 68 possessions which is less than Wisconsin has played in the last 2. Dekker is solid. He will not lose you the day, but he also will not win you the day. Depending on his price, he could be a solid play as Indiana has been struggling to defend. Trae Jackson bounced back well after his miserable game against Iowa and cannot be ignored here. The height of Indiana may pose a problem but I think he will be guarded by Ferrell. Kaminsky is going to play a big part of the game inside defending Vonleh, but on the offensive side my guess is he continues to play outside the arc, lowering his chance of rebounds. Brust should struggle against a much taller team, and I think Gasser will struggle also. I am not huge on any of the Badgers today.
Indiana
This game will be the test to see what Indiana is made of. I think Indiana matches up well man to man in this one on the defensive side and I am hoping their defensive woes of recent are a bit alleviated. I am not big on Vonleh today, as he could be pulled away from the basket. Wisconsin will not foul, and will not turn the ball over, so Ferrell could struggle as well. That means I cannot get on board with any of the Indiana players in this game against a bottom 300 tempo team who plays great defense.
Oklahoma 71 at Kansas State 76
Oklahoma
After scoring 102, 88, 90, and 87 in the last 4 games, the Sooners take the trip to Bramlage to take on the Wildcats. They are projected to score 71 in this game, so value is going to be hard to come by as the salaries are inflated. Kansas State also matches up well with Oklahoma so I am really not looking for anyone here. If I must take someone I would go with Ryan Spangler as he seems to be the safest option and with a bunch of missed shots he could get some rebounds. Kansas State’s weakness on D is their 2pt% so Spangler could do some damage inside.
Kansas State
K-State is at home against a fast team, so I am definitely looking here for some value since they will be getting an average of an extra 6 possessions here over normal. One guy to look at here is freshman Jevon Thomas whose minutes have increased every game. He has not put up a monster stat line yet, but he also has not been terrible. I think he has some pretty nice upside in this game but is definitely a risk. Marcus Foster is a really good piece for Bruce Weber and should be considered as well. The issue with Foster is his minutes and production has taken a bit of a hit with Thomas around as K-State has been forced to give Spradling, Thomas, and Foster minutes. I am not high on Iwundu at all, but Thomas Gipson has completely changed his body from last year and actually appears to be able to make it up and down the court in a fast paced game. I would go Gipson, Foster, Thomas as a ranking in my search for value.
St. John’s 71 at DePaul 70
St. John’s
I really do not feel like previewing this game. I am a bit different in that I really think St. John’s is pretty much garbage this year where everyone else was looking at them like one of the most talented teams. D’Angelo Harrison is the only person on this team who can make consistent shots, and even he has been struggling a bit. Harrison is also questionable for this game with a “minor” concussion, but appears to be able to play. I tend to like to play guys on teams against DePaul but I just do not know here. Rysheed Jordan took 14 shots last game and was horrible inefficient in doing so, and has disappeared from games in the past. Phil Greene has done nothing recently in their losses, and Pointer cannot nail down consistent minutes. Chris Obekpa is regarded as the best shot blocker, however he has really cooled, and has an offensive game that would make a children’s rec league coach quit. JaKarr Sampson is the guy I want to own here as he should be able to take over DePaul offensively if Harrison is limited and is the most consistent out of all of them.
DePaul
St. John’s is the #1 shot blocking team in the nation and is a force inside, so Tommy Hamilton and Sandi Marcius will be able to get nothing going. Harrison is not a good defender, so I really like Brandon Young here for DePaul but that is about it. I think Melvin’s game gets thrown off by not being able to score inside and St. John’s height will bother him as well. Melvin had a ridiculous game last time out so his price will have risen. Billy Garrett also had a nice game after dropping a complete dud in the one previous, and gets Phil Greene here. I would look at Garrett and Young if you want someone from DePaul.
Pittsburgh 70 at Georgia Tech 61
Pittsburgh
Pitt is getting no love nationally because of no marquee wins. Well, what they have done is take care of business and obliterate everyone but Cincinnati (who was a horrible matchup for them). Pittsburgh is very good and gets a ton of their points from inside the arc which is the markings of a very consistent team. The loss of Durand Johnson hurts however, so expect more minutes more minutes from Jamel Artis and Chris Jones. I do not think the extra minutes will make them fantasy options however. Lamar Patterson is a fantasy stud and should be treated as one. He is as consistent as they come and should be priced at just under top price. I would consider him even at Tech here. I like Talib Zanna as well as he is a double double threat every game. James Robinson is a great point guard, but he just does not fill up the stat sheet like one would hope. Cameron Wright is a nice low dollar option who should get more involved with the loss of Johnson.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech last had what may be a season saving win over Notre Dame, but now has to face Pittsburgh at home which is a great opportunity. They have not had any terrible losses, but they have a lot of them so it is time to win some games. The loss of Carter was huge but Daniel Miller has stepped up inside. He needs to have a big game tonight against Zanna for Tech to have any chance to pull the upset here. Chris Bolden played big minutes last time out and made 4 of 8 3’s. This is huge for the Yellow Jackets as he is their only outside shooter and they never look for 3’s at all, allowing the other team to sag and defend the paint. Bolden should play more minutes, however he was very streaky and hard to predict last year. Trae Golden plays well in their wins, and poor in their losses, naturally, so they will need a big game out of him tonight. I am really not in love with any of the Georgia Tech players, however as Pittsburgh is slow and very solid defensively.
Butler 63 at Creighton 77
Butler
Butler has played 5 overtime games against solid teams and lost 4 of them, and played Oklahoma State tough. This team can play with anyone, but can play down to anyone, and is somewhat like chameleon in that they somewhat play to the other team. I think Butler could get some extra possessions here, however Creighton is not as fast as you think. Creighton usually does a very good job at closing out on the 3 this year but without Gibbs last game they allowed Martin and Christon to get open a ton and Xavier went 12-26 from deep against them. This is good news for Kellen Dunham who would have been Gibbs’ assignment. Dunham should go off in this one and makes a solid play. Khyle Marshall has given me an anxiety disorder with his lack of rebounding recently, and Kam Woods has done the same with his scoring. Fromm may be losing his minute to Andrew Chrabascz who has played 29 and 25 minutes in the last 2 games and been effective. The guess here is will the Bulldogs fold away from Hinkle against a great team after 4 losses in a row, 3 in heartbreaking fasion, or will they use it as an opportunity?
Creighton
So the Gibbs injury really did not mean much for Creighton on the offensive end as Doug still moves off the ball, and ran around screens to get open. Doug is still the best offensive player in the game no matter his teammates, so he can score 35 on anyone. Doug is the highest priced guy on the board, so it is hard to match his level of consistency with anyone else. The rest of Creighton is a supporting cast who chips in opportunistically and really has no upside. I do, however like Devin Brooks a bit who will get more minutes without Gibbs and is not afraid to shoot.
Penn State 65 at Michigan 79
Penn State
Tim Frazier had a horrible game basically due to foul trouble which caused him never to get his momentum in the game. Newbill continues to have foul problems as well, but managed to have a solid game last time out. I cannot say I hate Frazier in this game, because I think his price is still way too low for the stud that he is, but Penn State is one of the lower scoring teams playing away from home. It is good to see Ross Travis finally get back to being a double double threat and could have a solid game against a Michigan frontcourt which is barren. Donovan Jack is committing a ridiculous 7 fouls per 40 minutes, so I would not even look at him today.
Michigan
This game sets up incredibly well for Nik Stauskas. Michigan is expected to score 79 against the miserable Penn State defense, which allows opponents to get whatever kind of looks from 3 that they want. Penn State also fouls an absurd amount of times and Stauskas is one of the best free throw shooters in the country. He should easily make value in this game. I can also get on the GR3 bandwagon, but he has disappointed me so many times he is on my DFS blacklist right now. Jordan Morgan looks to have reclaimed his starting center position, and rightfully so. He could make an interesting option tonight against Penn State who has horrible bigs. You cannot really go wrong with Michigan players tonight as they all have some sort of upside.
Temple 60 at Cincinnati 74
Temple
This is a pretty bad spot for Temple players. They are coming off 3 straight 70 plus possession games and this will be 3 games in 5 days with a shortened rotation due to injury. I like this team and am disappointed with how they have lost so many games, and playing against Cincinnati is not going to be the answer. The good news is that Temple shoots the 3 well with DeCosey, Cummings, and Pepper and those 3 are the only ones that I would reasonably consider in this game. Cincinnati is impossible to score on inside so the only way to win for Temple is to shoot a solid percentage from 3.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats look to continue their dominance on the defensive end against a tired Temple team at home. A lot of time missed 3’s turn into fast break opportunities so I really like Sean Kilpatrick in this game. Kilpatrick has been extremely solid this season, posting good numbers in every single game except the 44-33 mockery against Pittsburgh. This is not the case here in what should be a faster game for Cincy. I am not really a big fan of Jermaine Sanders as he really does not get any assists or rebounds recently, nor am I a fan of Titus Rubles who has problems scoring and with fouls. I think Justin Jackson gets back on track though as he is the 2nd option behind Kilpatrick in an extra possession game.
Georgia 57 at Florida 73
Georgia
The Bulldogs have rallied around their coach after his father died. You could see how emotional Mark Fox was after Georgia’s upset overtime win against Missouri. Not only that, but the Bulldogs beat Alabama to go to 2-0 on the season. Georgia has played a little bit faster as of late, and a banged up Florida squad better watch out in this one. Charles Mann has taken over alpha dog duties for Georgia, and is the guy you want if you have to have someone from there, but I really would not advise it. Even though this team is better, this should still be a low possession game at Florida against a solid defensive team in Florida. I really do not like anyone from Georgia.
Florida
Casey Prather will not play again, so the 3 letter name of the industry (Dorian Finney-Smith), should again play big minutes with big involvement in the offense. Finney-Smith went ham last game against Arkansas, and while I would not expect the same stat line, he is definitely in play in places which have not adjusted salaries. Patric Young was in foul trouble, but Finney-Smith is such a better rebounder, I really think Young’s value takes a huge hit with Prather out. Kasey Hill played 32 minutes against Arkansas and should get about 28 tonight against Georgia and get close or past value. Scottie Wilbekin has had extra time to heal and should be good to go against Georgia.