College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Jan 28th
Thanks to the cold weather, my work was closed today so it’s time for an early edition of the Grind Down. There are not very many games overall tonight but thankfully most of them are major conference games which should provide a balanced slate for people to choose from. Eight games are on the docket, which in my opinion is not too many and not too few. I will break down the matchups for you all below.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and although I touch on injuries here, I am doing this very early so make sure you check injuries before rosters lock as any questionable guys have not been announced yet.
Michigan State 74 at Iowa 81
Michigan State
The Spartans lost to Michigan on Saturday in a game they really should have won and now travel to Carver Hawkeye arena to play another top Big 10 team. KenPom actually has Iowa as a more efficient team than MSU and I would agree; with Payne doubtful and Dawson out, their interior defense really takes a hit. I really like Denzel Valentine to rebound after his tough game against Michigan in this one and post a nice stat line; Denzel does his best work in transition and the Hawkeyes love to run. Gary Harris is of course one of the top plays of the night as someone on MSU has to score. I may try to roster him in almost every site if he is not too expensive. Matt Costello should again provide value against an Iowa frontcourt who leaves much to be desired. You may also be able to find value with Kenny Kaminski or Travis Trice, however it appears that Izzo is going to use many players in the absence of Dawson. MSU should get a few extra possessions in this game even in a loss so I still like their chances for value.
Iowa
Here comes the old complain about the Iowa minutes soapbox, but it’s true. In fact, against Northwestern, it was not White or Marble who played the most minutes, it was Mike Gesell. While MSU likes to run more than the previous 2 Iowa opponents, I really cannot recommend anyone other than White and Marble as no one else is getting substantially more than 20 minutes per game. I really think White can do some damage here against the depleted MSU frontcourt. I am going to be avoiding Marble today as I believe Harris is a pretty solid defender overall and Iowa will not force the ball into Marble’s hands with so many options to score.
Kentucky 76 at LSU 72
Kentucky
Other than the Louisville win, the Wildcats really have no substance on their resume. They travel to LSU today in a very dangerous game, one they definitely could lose. Their losses against UNC, Baylor, and Arkansas all have looked worse and worse over the last 2 weeks as well. Kentucky is probably a team you will want some exposure to, but who do you choose? I have lost all faith in Willie Cauley-Stein who is really playing at a low level right now. The only place I would consider him is on FanDuel because of the blocks, but I am not sure. Julius Randle has also been just above average since the Arkansas game, and I do not see that changing here. LSU has 3 really skilled bigs who can body Randle and make things difficult for him. I really have a disdain for the Harrison twins, but if one catches fire I think they could make a solid play against a weak LSU backcourt. LSU has really dominated in the paint, having one of the best interior defenses in the nation this year, so I think your best play here is James Young; as he is really the only outside threat that Kentucky has.
LSU
Look who is back, Shavon Coleman is playing major minutes for the Tigers recently, and can be found at somewhat of a bargain. I can see him again getting minutes at the 2 tonight to match up with the height of Kentucky. Jarell Martin has been fading off recently in minutes but I also think he will see an uptick in minutes as well. Even though those 2 will play more, it will still be the 2 headed monster of Johnny O’Bryant and Jordan Mickey inside to deal with the Kentucky trees. I like both in this game if they are not too expensive. Kentucky has allowed the Georgia bigs to have solid games and allowed Jarnell Stokes and even Maymon anything they wanted in the paint with 11 offensive rebounds between the 2. I would use the cheaper option of the 2 as who has a better game is a toss up.
Virginia 66 at Notre Dame 61
Virginia
One guy who has really not received a lot of attention but is really producing right now is Malcolm Brogdon for the Hoos. Brogdon has at least 16 points in 4 straight and has double digits in 7 straight. He plays 30 minutes per game and also grabs some rebounds and assists. I think he makes a decent play along with Joe Harris who is essentially the go to guy in this offense. Akil Mitchell has upside but is a huge risk as he disappears game by game. I really wouldn’t use anyone else on Virginia; they like to put their fans to sleep when they play with one of the slowest tempos and best defensese in the country.
Notre Dame
Virginia basketball is the Mount Doom of daily fantasy. You can throw any top player into their firey reaches and he will come out with a horrible game. They play so slow and have such a lock down defense, it really is not worth it to play anyone here. Notre Dame is going to play this game at the amount of possessions that they played last game at or lower, and no one had a solid game there. I would just avoid the Irish entirely tonight.
Missouri 74 at Arkansas 79
Missouri
A completely opposite game of the previously discussed, Arkansas loves to run and gun and play a lot of players. Not so much with Missouri who generally rolls with a 6 or 7 man rotation. I love Jabari Brown tonight, as Arkansas gives up the 3 pretty easily and Brown has been really consistent and solid recently. I like Brown over Clarkson who is more a drive and score guy than a 3 point shooter. Clarkson does not make a terrible play, but even at a higher salary I would take Brown tonight. At this point, you kinda know what you will get from Earnest Ross, around 15 points and about 7 rebounds. He should be at the upside of his potential tonight in a high possession game so use your best judgment on his price. Ryan Rosburg ended up playing 31 minutes as Tony Criswell was a DNP-Coaches Decision in the first half against South Carolina. Rosburg brings some value if Criswell sits most of the game again but his upside is very limited. Johnathan Williams is cheap and a definite solid option if you are looking for 18 fantasy points at a cheap price point.
Arkansas
It appears that Michael Qualls may be working his way out of Mike Anderson’s doghouse as he played 25 minutes last game against Auburn. He was fairly productive but does bring a lot of risk today. Missouri will slow Arkansas down a bit, but they will still play an uptempo style with a lot of possessions, especially at home and especially because Missouri refuses to turn you over on offense. Qualls is a risk, but the best 2 plays for me are Bobby Portis and Rashad Madden. Madden is the guy that Anderson trusts the most never playing under 30 minutes in the previous 6 games in conference play. If he is cheap, use him, because he will get his opportunites. Portis is the big man that Anderson trusts as well. He had a nice rebound game against Auburn and should be able to dominate a Missouri backcourt who isn’t as skilled as he is.
West Virginia 69 at Baylor 75
West Virginia
There are 4 guys on West Virginia to look at, Staten, Harris, Henderson, and Williams, who have all gained Huggins’ trust. The Oklahoma State game was a foul fest, so Harris and Williams played sparingly before fouling out. Staten is your best option but he will be expensive, and I will tend to avoid him here today against a pretty solid interior defense of Baylor. Baylor is very slow and will drag West Virginia down a bit but Harris and Henderson could have solid shooting days as Baylor doesn’t like to close out on the shooter. I really wouldn’t think about Devin Williams who will be against Jefferson or Austin, or whoever matches up with him in the zone. I can see a lot of late shot clock 3’s from WVU here.
Baylor
Welp, one and five in Big 12 play is not going to get it done. They had a very promising start to the season but now look like an NIT team unless they can win 2 of their next 3. They really got worked over by Isaiah Taylor last game and none of their players played particularly well. Cory Jefferson will again be my favorite play here as he should own the weak WVU interior. Isaiah Austin is a bit of a wildcard, as he has the height to dominate and grab some offensive rebounds, as long as he doesn’t drift out by the arc. I also think that Kenny Chery has a solid game in this one as well. Scott Drew needs his point guard to step up in a big way tonight.
Texas Tech 59 at Kansas State 67
Texas Tech
This game should be pretty brutal, especially on the Texas Tech side. Both teams play horribly slow and Kansas State has one of the better defenses in the country. While Texas Tech has a solid offense, they only managed 65 points against Oklahoma whose defense is not even close to K-State. I would just avoid the Red Raiders in this one as the upside is nowhere to be found.
Kansas State
While K-State brings more upside than Texas Tech, I am only using them if forced to. Marcus Foster and Thomas Gipson are the guys I will be targeting here along with Shane Southwell who generally plays most of the game, Southwell is pretty cheap and you can usually count on 15-7 from him. Marcus Foster should have a nice day against a poor Texas Tech defense and is the future of this K-State team. Thomas Gipson is a bit of a wildcard, but when he is fed the ball in the post he makes solid things happen. There is some value to be found here but this game will be played at a very low possession rate.
St. John’s 67 at Creighton 82
St. John’s
St. John’s should get a little boost today playing a Creighton team who is mostly all offense and a little defense. I think the D’Angelo Harrison finally has a good game against the Bluejays who give up the 3 easier than the 2. St. John’s was really efficient against Butler without Phil Greene, however if he is back from his stomach illness, you can bump down Rysheed Jordan a bit. Orlando Sanchez seems to have taken the starting center job from Obekpa who only played 6 minutes in the last game. Sanchez is going to have to mark Wragge in this game who will pull him from the baseline and hurt his rebounding totals. Really, the only one I am looking at here is Harrison, especially with Greene returning. I have no faith in Jakarr Sampson in this one even though he seems to be producing lately.
Creighton
Again, in my mind, Doug makes the top play of the day. St. John’s is the top block team in the nation, but Doug is so skilled with pump fakes, positioning, and off-ball movement that he will be able to get his shot. He is a bit cheaper than usual and should crack 30 game points in my opinion. Ethan Wragge is getting more looks at 3, and St. John’s has given up a high percentage shooting the 3 this year so he is in play. Like I have noted before, I hate using other guys on Creighton just because the offense runs completely through Doug.
SMU 70 at South Florida 61
SMU
Larry Brown’s Southern Methodist team is really good, in case you haven’t noticed. Take some time to watch them and their #1 ranked 2 point defense and you will know this team can make the second weekend of the tournament. These are 2 teams going in different directions with SMU winning 5 in a row and USF losing 4. These 2 played at SMU earlier in the year, without Moreira who should be out for this one as well barring a miracle. Markus Kennedy was again a stud with 18-3-10 in that one, Nic Moore had asolid game, and Shawn Williams produced. I would expect the same from Moore and Kennedy but the rest of SMU is a bit hard to decipher. In an away game against USF I would really only consider those 2.
USF
I watched most of USF’s game against Louisville, and after 5 minutes it appeared all of their players had completely given up. SMU has the best 2 point defense in the country and that is the only way that USF can score. This game could get really ugly for USF. I would take a 3 point shooter on the Bulls, but they don’t have any. I really do not see how USF scores in this game so I am avoiding all of them. If I was forced to take a chance on anyone, it would be Victor Rudd but he has been so horrid in the previous few games that I cannot trust him tonight.