College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Jan 7th
College Football is now officially over, so it is time to get some action in college basketball. It is finally conference season, and tonight we get a couple of top 10 matchups in Michigan State and Ohio State and Baylor and Iowa State, a perfect intro into the meat of the season. There are some teams with really low point totals that can almost be completely ignored as well.
We have a solid 10 game schedule for major conference teams today so I will be forgoing the stats to preview all 10 games. As usual, you can find the stats at KenPom.com, and the score projections are directly from there.
Tennessee 69 at LSU 70
Tennessee
The Vols completely throttled Virginia in their last game against a D1 opponent, and essentially made one of the best defenses in the country look like a joke. Granted, they shot it lights out from 3, but it is still impressive what they were able to do. They did get beat by NC State as well, so who knows what Tennessee team you will get. LSU has a solid defense, especially 2pt defense so I am not too big on Stokes or Maymon tonight. I would use McRae with confidence as none of the LSU guards can defend him, he is just way too quick off the dribble and can create his own shot with ease. Hubbs should be out again which will open up more minutes for Derek Reese who is a very solid rebounder. If Reese is still min priced on the site you are playing on he is definitely worth a look. Antonio Barton is way too inconsistent for me, but he has had 2 straight solid games, so if he is cheap enough he could be in play.
LSU
The emergense of Jordan Mickey for the Tigers has completely destroyed Johnny O’Bryant’s fantasy value. While it makes LSU a better team, JOB cannot be counted on to pump out the stats he did before. He is still overpriced on FanDuel, but I think he could have a solid game tonight in a game where LSU needs him to rebound and battle against the skilled Tennessee bigs. Jarell Martin is a solid freshman, but is splitting time with Shavon Coleman, so I would stay away from him as his minutes are unpredictable, the same with Coleman. Stringer and Hickey are almost the same player, so take your pick there. I do not find either to be particularly appetizing plays tonight in a game against a solid Tennessee defense.
Baylor 68 at Iowa State 75
Baylor
We will see tonight if the Bears have the chops to take down some Hilton magic against Iowa State. Baylor is projected to score 68 points which is not a high total, and they spread the wealth around so value may be hard to come by here. Iowa State’s defense is solid, but they are short so if you are going to use anyone, I would take a look at Jefferson and Austin, both of whom should get some easy looks inside against one of the shortest teams in the country. I would stay away from Chery as Iowa State is not going to turn it over and this will most likely be a half-court game for Baylor to use their size advantage. Target: Bigs, Avoid: Guards.
Iowa State
Projected to score 75, which is one of the highest totals tonight, Iowa State could provide some value. They are going to need Hogue to step up and rebound, however he may have some trouble getting his easy looks like he usually does and for some reason, he only played 23 minutes against Texas Tech, so I am avoiding him here. Ejim gets his looks from outside as well as inside so he is still definitely in play, and I like DeAndre Kane to go nuts in this one against the smaller Chery.
Georgia Tech 67 at Duke 83
Duke
Jabari Parker absolutely killed me with his dud game against Notre Dame on Saturday, including getting benched at the end of the game. This is not going to be the norm, and his price has dropped to around 15k on Draftstreet due to that game. His upside is way clear of 30 points so I am targeting him on DS today, and ignoring what happened last time out as Georgia Tech is much worse and Duke is the highest projected scoring team tonight. Cook and Hood are definitely in play as well, but no one else gets enough consistent minutes to be a reliable DFS asset.
Georgia Tech
Robert Carter is still going to be out in this game, so I would again look to Kammeon Holsey to pick up some of the extra minutes. The problem is that he did almost nothing with them in the previous game against Maryland. Georgia Tech just is not very good, and will most likely get blown out in this game. Quinton Stephens was the better player than Holsey in the last game against Maryland, so it is also possible he takes some of his minutes. I do, however, really like Daniel Miller today against the inept Duke frontcourt. Miller should be able to make value on all sites, even in a loss.
Kansas St. 63 at TCU 59
Kansas State
This game should be one of the lowest scoring of then night, making it essentially fantasy hell. Will Spradling plays a ton of minutes but is not a focal point of the offense, so he has very low upside. I like Southwell tonight against TCU, as his price will be a little depressed after his foul trouble in the last game against Oklahoma State. TCU’s zone could really hurt K-State in this one as they are a horrible jump shooting team. They are also coming off a huge win against Oklahoma State, so I expect this game to be real ugly across the board with hardly any fantasy value.
TCU
Amric Fields is a stud, and if his price has not been adjusted on your site, load him up even in a miserable game like this. TCU is only expected to score 59 points but I can forsee Fields getting 25 of those as he takes around 35% of the shots and is a focal point of this offense. Kyan Anderson is too expensive for this game, and the only other one I would look at is Brandon Parrish who seems to be underpriced but has scored in double digits in 5 straight.
Creighton 78 at DePaul 68
Creighton
The top play of the day resides here, as Doug McDermott will take the stage against DePaul. DePaul’s defense is improved, but they still have no one who can contain Doug. He is going to score a bunch in this one, as DePaul will give Creighton a few extra possessions and have a chance to keep this one close. I cannot recommend anyone else really, as Doug will take more shots than the rest of the team combined.
DePaul
It helps for DePaul that they are home in this game, but unless Creighton does something stupid, I cannot see them pulling the upset. Young has been awful offensively this year, and Melvin has been very inconsistent. Melvin definitely has 30FP upside, so on a site like Draftstreet where he is cheap he could be worth the gamble in this one. I am really impressed with what Billy Garrett brings to the table for DePaul and he could be a piece which helps them have a winning season for once. He makes an average play in fantasy as his floor is high, but his ceiling is also low as he is the 3rd option behind Young and Melvin.
Syracuse 70 at Virginia Tech 61
Syracuse
Syracuse travels to Virginia Tech in what could be closer than some people think. The Orange were awful offensively in their win against Miami, and no one made value. This game should be a bit more uptempo, and I really like Tyler Ennis as the Hokies refuse to turn you over. Against Miami, Grant, Ennis, Cooney and Fair played almost the entire game and could do so again here. Cooney is reliant on his 3 point shot for fantasy points, so I really do not like him, but Fair, Ennis and Grant all make good plays. I am also expecting a few long rebounds as the Syracuse zone will play into Tech shooting 3’s, which they love to do.
Virginia Tech
No Adam Smith again today so Devin Wilson will again run the point and get all the minutes he can handle. Emelogu will also play a ton an Van Zegeren could also play 30+ minutes with Barksdale questionable and Wood having the flu. I like Van Zegeren and Devin Wilson as value options, and I also like Jarell Eddie today, especially on Draftstreet where he is around 12k. Eddie could shoot 10+ 3 balls in this game and should make his value easily.
Cincinnati 69 at Houston 61
Cincinnati
A dominant performance by the Bearcats over Memphis proves that they are going to be a tough out in the AAC and in the tournament. They are long, and fantastic defensively, but on offense they have a team which leaves a lot to be desired. Unfortunately, I really cannot recommend anyone other than Kilpatrick and Jackson. Justin Jackson will match up against TaShawn Thomas who will have the ball in his hands a ton so he will be in position to grab a bunch of rebounds. Jackson is a dunk machine as well, so anything close to the hoop he is golden. Kilpatrick will get his as he always does, but no one else is worth taking a gamble on as it may be difficult for Cincinnati to reach 70 in this one.
Houston
Houston followed up their UConn win with a win over South Florida, and they got both done without the services of Danuel House, LJ Rose, and JJ Richardson. This is causing Chicken Knowles, Brandon Morris, and TaShawn Thomas to all step up along with Tione Womack. TaShawn Thomas won’t be cheap but he has 50 point upside on a site like FanDuel with his blocks and steals. I like Knowles as a value option on FanDuel again as he should get 30+ minutes. I would not use Brandon Morris, however as he has been completely inept offensively. Jherrod Stiggers could be a solid cheap option as he takes a ton of 3’s, and Houston will need his offensive presence to keep the long Bearcats defense honest.
Ohio State 63 at Michigan State 64
Ohio State
Here you have the #1 defense traveling to the Breslin Center in a top 10 matchup early in Big 10 season. This is a pivotal game for MSU who need to hold serve in what will be a brutal, grind it out season in the Big 10. How will Ohio State score against the best defense they have played by far this season? The other defense they played that was decent was Marquettes, and they only managed 52 points in that game. Ross has really emerged as the go to guy in this offense, but I do not like him here. Michigan State should be able to hold the Buckeyes to under 65 points if Dawson can take away Ross and Harris can take away Lenzelle Smith. I really am not a fan of any of the Ohio State players in this one as they have scored a ton recently and their prices are way too high for a game which could end up in the 60s for both teams.
Michigan State
I got burned Saturday assuming the Indiana length would give Harris fits, but it also did not help that Payne got into early foul trouble and Harris had to do most of the scoring. Again I do not like Harris or Appling in this game as the Ohio State perimeter defense is the best in the country. If Michigan State wants to score they are going to have to do it inside so I love Dawson and I love Payne in this one again. Payne’s price should have dropped a big but I am looking for a 20-10 out of Payne and 15-10 out of Dawson.
Vanderbilt 58 at Alabama 64
Vanderbilt
I somewhat shudder at this game thinking about how snail-like this game could be. KenPom has Vandy scoring 58 points which is definitely possible seeing as they only managed 49 against Saint Louis. Following Henderson’s injury, Damian Jones has been the benefactor of the minutes, and should be able to dominate inside against a bad Alabama interior. Alabama will allow you to score inside, so if you want to play someone look towards Jones to provide value tonight. Alabama plays very solid perimeter defense, so any 3 point shooters like Rod Odom can be taken off the board. I am hopeful that Eric McClellan can have a solid stat line as he should be able to beat Releford off the dribble and score at the hoop however the upside just is not there.
Alabama
Vanderbilt, just like Bama, takes away the 3 point shot very well, but they will let you score inside. Trevor Releford finds ways to score in very slow games so he is always in play, however no one else on Alabama should be considered except for Shannon Hale. Hale has basically taken Nick Jacobs’ job, and has been productive in doing so. I would look at him for value if he is cheap on the site you are playing on, he went 7-5 against RMU, and 9-9 against UCLA, so the production is there if he gets minutes.
NC State 70 at Notre Dame 77
NC State
TJ Warren is the other top play of the day, as he just cannot be stopped. He went for 23-8 against Pittsburgh, who is one of the best defensive teams in the country, so good luck to Notre Dame in stopping him. If I was Brey I would go zone in this game as NC State is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation as Warren gets most of his work done inside the arc. Outside of Warren, Anthony Barber should be able to provide some value as he gets a boost to his assists column due to Warren’s offensive prowess. Everyone else on NC State just kind of fills in as Vandenburg and Freeman are not involved in the offense whatsoever. There should be value here as NC State is projected to score 70 and could go for more as Notre Dame may have a letdown after their huge win, but you will have to pay for it.
Notre Dame
If you did not believe in Eric Atkins after Canisius, take heart what he did against Duke – 19 points 11 assists and a rebound. Atkins is one of the top fantasy options after Grant’s dismissal, and should be treated as such. I would put him just a little bit below McDermott and Warren today, so if your site has not adjusted his price, take appropriate action and roster him. Notre Dame is projected to score 77 against a pourous NC State defense, so I am also looking at Sherman to continue his strong play and Connaughton to also get in on the action. Value abounds as there are minutes to be had for the cheap players, but who will produce? Beachem got a bunch of minutes in the first game without Grant, but only played 8 against Duke and did not produce. Steve Vasturia got 22 minutes against Duke and did produce with 9 pts and 4 reb along with getting named rookie of the week, so we could be looking at a solid play there. Burgett just is not involved enough in the offense, but I think Auguste could potentially get value.