College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Mar 4th
Conference tournaments are underway and the madness has officially begun. I am going to be paying a lot of attention to these small tournaments as these are some of the most exciting games being played. It’s a winner take all dogfight with a trip to the big dance on the line. There will be tears, joy, and best of all, smaller schools fan bases going absolutely bonkers. If you haven’t paid attention before, pick a small conference and follow the bracket. Every championship game is televised as well and it’s incredible to see all of these kids putting it all on the line.
Anyways, that’s not why were here. We are here to talk about Tuesday’s 13 game DFS slate, so let’s get right into it. Last Tuesday of the regular season is here so let’s make it count. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com and make sure to check injuries before tip.
Iowa State 75 at Baylor 73
Iowa State
Ejim went crazy against Kansas State, but was very low owned so it didn’t hurt fading him. This game I really do not think he will do well against the huge Bears interior. He went for 18 and 2 against Baylor earlier in the year and really had problems with the size and length of the Bears inside. Ejim makes a clear fade today for me. DeAndre Kane is playing at an extremely high level and makes a solid play however will be one of the most expensive guys on the board. Niang is also expensive and Baylor is a pretty slow team. This may be another game where I try to fade Iowa State completely as Morris’ price has risen and Hogue isn’t playing his best basketball.
Baylor
I think Baylor has a lot of value here. They are coming off a 59 point performance but their offense has been clicking lately. Iowa State is the 10th fastest team in the country and will give Baylor some extra possessions here. Royce O’Neale has been the best player for the Bears lately and certainly is worth a look today, however I really like the size advantage that Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin have on Iowa State I am definitely going to be looking to get some exposure to the Bears today and I would even consider using Kenny Chery. Most of the guys are pretty cheap and should provice a nice high ceiling.
Creighton 76 at Georgetown 71
Creighton
The 2nd to last regular season game for Doug McBuckets and it will be hard to see him go. He has had one great career for the Bluejays and I’m hoping he takes them deep into the tournament. He is the top play on the board today and his salary reflects it. Creighton is pretty much “can you afford Doug”? If not, look elsewhere for value as the rest of the guys get light volume. I have taken Gibbs once this year if I remember and have not used anyone else other than Doug on Creighton, so make the Creighton decision will you pay up for Doug.
Georgetown
Last loss to Marquette was a crushing blow for the Hoyas and they really need this win to get back to the right side of the bubble. Georgetown is run by Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera and both made decent plays today against a Creighton defense which has been porous recently. The weakness of Creighton is guard play so both should have good games and I would take whichever one is cheaper. Nate Lubick was in foul trouble last game but makes an interesting punt play; high floor low ceiling. Jabril Trawick has solidified himself in the lineup and will continue to see lots of run. I would consider him if he is still cheap as he has been good lately.
Michigan 62 at Illinois 61
Michigan
This is not one of my favorite games to target. Michigan plays slow, Illinois plays slow and both play serviceable defense which will make points a premium tonight. LeVert, Stauskas, and Robinson are the 3 wings who get 35+ minutes and the guys leaned on to carry the scoring load. Walton and Albrecht split time last game but I would expect Walton to play a little bit more than he did last game. That being said, I wouldn’t consider him here even at his price on FanDuel. The Michigan interior is also sketchy as Morgan got the playing time last game but Beilein usually goes with who is playing well. LeVert seems to be the best play on the team DFS wise but will also be the most expensive. Stauskas as well has 2 20 point games in the last 3 and is also in play.
Illinois
It looks like John Groce has finally settled in on a lineup which involves Nunn, Abrams, Rice, Egwu, and a rotating 5th man. THis makes Kendrick Nunn a solid value play almost everywhere as he continues to be almost min salary everywhere you look and will be getting 35 minutes. The problem here is that both teams are slow and there are better spots to abuse, but sometimes you have to use a guy like Nunn. Rayvonte Rice has really been struggling and I wouldn’t use him, especially against the Michigan wings. The guy I think could have a bounce back game is Nnanna Egwu who had a really solid stretch a few games ago and it has tailed off. He has battled foul trouble so if he can keep his head above water and get the minutes he should abuse the Michigan interior.
Arizona State 73 at Oregon 78
Arizona State
After a win on senior night over Cal, Arizona State looks pretty good for the tournament. Last game it was a team effort where everyone who played chipped in. I think this game goes more to Jahii Carson as Oregon is horrible defensively and they allow guards to get whatever they want. Carson should be a little cheaper because of his Cal dud but I think he has a really nice game tonight and I will be trying to get him in my lineups. Jermaine Marshall could be another interesting play as he still managed a 12-3-6 line going 0-7 on 3’s in the first meeting. I like Jordan Bachynski again as long as he can stay out of foul trouble he could make value as he is just so cheap everywhere. Bachynski went nuts against Oregon last time with 26-9 and 9 blocks. Jonathan Gilling played a lot in the last game but his minutes are too shaky to consider him a viable option, but Shaq McKissic is an option. Oregon plays really fast and doesn’t play much defense so I like ASU players here.
Oregon
The Ducks have now won 5 in a row and can solidify their tournament berth with a win here against a game ASU squad. Oregon is run by 2 players, Joe Young and Mike Moser, and both are definitely in play. Moser has been fantastic in the last few games and is definitely in play again against Arizona State as he will match up against their undersized 4. Joe Young usually carries the scoring load for the Ducks and hasn’t been under 16 in 6 games with a few high 20 point games in there. He doesn’t do much but score but boy can he score. The rest of Oregon is very hard to predict and I would just recommend avoiding them. Dotson, Calliste, Artis, Loyd and the others all sit for extended periods of time depending on the game; they just are not reliable plays.
Marquette 67 at Providence 72
Marquette
I get extremely frustrated when I use Marquette players. Last game against Villanova, the minutes were completely distributed where no one was a good play. The previous game against Georgetown, it was only Jake Thomas and Davante Gardner who got shots on offense and everyone else was useless. I have used Jamil Wilson a few times and also used Jake Thomas when he didn’t blow up. Gardner will get his 20-25 minutes per game and will produce decent stats. I can only imagine the stat lines he could put up consistently if Buzz played him 35 minutes (assuming his conditioning can handle it). I think Jamil Wilson will break out at some point and make a really good value play but I’m just sick of trusting Marquette players and getting burned. This is not a good matchup either as Providence will most likely be able to slow them down and keep them from hitting 70.
Providence
I would be really sad if Bryce Cotton did not get his shot at the NCAA’s, so I am definitely rooting for the Friars tonight. Cotton is an absolute ironman who plays the entire game every game, and scores 25 points getting out of bed. He is the safest option on the board in my opinion and has the ability to drag Providence to the tournament himself. The great thing about Cotton is that he also racks up 7-8 assists per game and gets some rebounds so the stat sheet stuffing is there. The rest of the team as well makes decent plays as they play 5 guys almost the entire game. Josh Fortune and Tyler Harris are probably the 2 cheapest but also the least reliable. Kadeem Batts and LaDontae Henton are the strength inside and are threats for double doubles. Against Marquette, I really like guards who they have struggled to defend, so I will recommend Fortune, Cotton and Henton who likes to take 3’s.
Florida State 74 at Boston College 70
Florida State
FSU absolutely cannot lose this game if they want to make the tournament. Their offense has been playing better behind Aaron Thomas and Ian Miller and I really like what Thomas brings to the table today. I think Thomas will make value on most sites and I would also look at Okaro White even though he hasn’t been a great play all year. FSU is pretty balanced but those 2 are the guys that most of the offense revolves around. Boston College isn’t fast but they are awful on defense so efficiency will be key for FSU and I White and Thomas are the 2 best in that regard. Devon Bookert is an interesting play but will come off the bench and won’t get as much playing time. Montay Brandon could also provide value but he is just so risky.
Boston College
FSU has really gotten it together defensively recently and should be able to shut down Boston College here. I do like that it is at home for BC and I like Hanlan and Anderson but it makes me really nervous playing FSU. The Seminoles have the 2 trees in Ojo and Bojanovsky who patrol the paint which will make it difficult for Anderson to get what he likes around the rim. The guards are pretty intese defensively as well which will make life hard for Hanlan. Not a big fan of either, but depending on salary I might not argue with using one.
Florida 72 at South Carolina 62
Florida
The Gators could be the best team in the country but they are far from the best team to target fantasy-wise. They have been extremely frustrating to me recently because they are so deep and with the return of Kasey Hill it makes things even more muddled. Not many of their players have high usage rates as they spread the ball around and give everyone a chance while attacking the weak parts of the opponents. Scottie Wilbekin was my favorite player to use when hill was out because he would play almost the whole game but when Hill returned, Wilbekin’s minutes went from averaging 38 to only playing 29. Frazier is playing a lot but he is only a 3 point marksman. Patric Young makes a solid play tonight against the weak SC interior but I have never seen a player like him have such a low ceiling. Tons of good players that spread the ball around makes for a formidable team but is definitely not for fantasy purposes.
South Carolina
It took me a while to realize it, but Brenton Williams has been incredibly good for SC in the new year. He has one of the highest offensive ratings in the country, shoots free throws at an incredible rate and is a sniper from long range. Florida has a great defense but the have allowed teams to shoot the 3 on them, so if I was going to use anyone, Williams would be the guy. He is still incredibly cheap on FanDuel for his production so I like him even against Florida. Everyone else here I would stay away from; Thornwell is struggling, Notice is back to the bench and Carrera is having a hard time being a part of the offense not to mention that Florida’s defense is extremely solid.
Georgia Tech 54 at Syracuse 69
Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have had some of my favorite value plays for a while now but this matchup leaves a lot to be desired. Coming back from injury, Trae Golden’s salary was at a ridiculously low point almost to the point where you just couldn’t ignore him. He was basically min salary for a point guard who plays the whole game. Robert Carter is back and playing really good basketball recently as well and both have been solid value plays. The problem here is that Syracuse is so good defensively in their zone that it really makes me nervous to use either guy. Daniel Miller has been struggling to make value since Carter’s return and Marcus Georges-Hunt isn’t worth rostering anyways. Golden and Carter have horrible matchups against Syracuse but depending on price I may end up rostering them anyways.
Syracuse
Well, Jerami Grant’s back is a gigantic concern now just like Embiid’s. Grant has not practiced and at the time of writing this up is questionable. I am going to guess and say he doesn’t play to rest up for the ACC tournament, but I have been guessing wrong recently so make sure you check twitter for news before tip. Cuse plays at 7 so we should know before rosters lock. If Grant is out, Rakeem Christmas would get a huge bump, as would Michael Gbinije. I would think Keita would play extra minutes as well but he cannot be trusted. CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis both make solid plays as Syracuse should be able to rebound and win this game.