College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Feb 12th
Tonight is highlighted by one of the biggest rivalries in sports, and it should be a good one. Duke travels to North Carolina in what should be an uptempo, close game. There are some other really solid matchups on the slate, and there are a lot of games tonight which should take away some of the roster similarities we have seen on previous nights.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com. I will touch on injuries if there are some but always remember to check twitter if someone is questionable around gametime and you are not sure if they are starting, or completely ignore them. The 10k event on FanDuel is about half full right now, so get your spot while it lasts.
Duke 79 at North Carolina 81
Duke
This is clearly the game of the night. Both teams are playing well and the fact that it is at North Carolina makes the chance of this one coming down to the wire greater. Right now it is the Jabari Parker show and he is being aggressive and getting to the hole. Even though UNC has a solid defense, he makes a good play here and should be able to get his 20 and 10. It really help him fantasy wise that Duke has no one inside to rebound the basketball. Rodney Hood has been a bit disappointing lately but I could see him breaking out of his slump here as Duke will need another scorer. Quinn Cook played well against Boston College, but their defense is laughable so I would wait it out to determine if Cook has actually turned the corner on his season. Sulaimon is streaking right now and makes a solid play. I wouldn’t use anyone else however.
North Carolina
UNC matches up fantastic with Duke here as the only way the Tar Heels can score is inside and the weakness of Duke is inside. I am loving James Michael McAdoo in this game and I think he equals Jabari Parker. McAdoo has really been playing to his strengths and scoring at the basket recently and should be able to easily drive on whoever is guarding him. Marcus Paige is the #2 play but I think that Roy will try to score in the paint rather than have Paige take too many jumpers. Kennedy Meeks produces with minutes but he gave up almost all of them to Brice Johnson last game who played fairly well. I actually think Meeks plays a lot more minutes inside to abuse the weakness of Duke. Leslie McDonald is still cheap but his game is on the perimeter and Duke does a decent job of defending it.
Syracuse 61 at Pittsburgh 62
Syracuse
The Orange face their first true road test today against Pittsburgh, a team that has the moxie to defeat them. In fact, Pittsburgh opened as a favorite, so quash the upset talk right there. Both of these teams are slower than molasses in a polar vortex so I am not targeting this game in DFS tonight. The one situation I think could be a good spot here is with Syracuse’s frontcourt. Baye Keita is questionable for the game so if he misses that leaves their only serviceable bigs as Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant. Grant has been really good in full minutes and even in a low paced game should put up numbers. The real benefit will come to Pittsburgh if Keita is out. If Keita is out however definitely look towards Christmas to play a lot of minutes and to make value. I wouldn’t use Trevor Cooney unless in a GPP and even then he isn’t my favorite guard target. Pitt plays solid defense everywhere and there will not be a lot of points to go around. Tyler Ennis has been just meh in a DFS standpoint in the 2 previous slow games, so I am fading him too.
Pittsburgh
If Keita is out tonight, I am loading up on the Talib Zanna train. Zanna’s price should have dropped a tad after his poor game last time out but most likely he will be centering the middle against the Cuse zone without any solid bigs to defend him. Even in a low possession game I think he makes a solid gamble as last game they played he went for 12-11 in a 54 possession game. I also like Lamar Patterson who will be the guy who attacks the zone. Patterson can drive and kick and can also shoot it so the zone will have to keep him honest. He will be able to find teammates and score. The issue with these two teams is if there is a game like last game which ended up 59-54 you are better off going somewhere else.
Stanford 79 at Washington 75
Stanford
This is potentially my 2nd most targeted game of the night just because of the matchups. Washington has essentially the worst major conference 2 point defense, so guys like Nastic, Powell and Huestis are all in play here. I will be going out of my way to get those guys on my team. I would definitely shy away from Anthony Brown in this one but I think Randle could do a lot of damage driving to the bucket. Both teams play at the same tempo which is pretty quick so they should like to run. I definitely like Stanford’s bigs for value here. Do not forget that Chasson Randle went for 33 the last time these teams played.
Washington
Given Washington’s inept defense around the rim, they stay in games by having a good offense and having solid shooters. They spent the last week getting brutalized by the Pac-12’s middle-lower tier on the road, so it will be nice to come home to play. CJ Wilcox is essentially playing for the NBA draft right now and is the best shooter on the team. I really like him today because of that and because Stanford is garbage at defending the 3. Wilcox has been struggling but is one of the best pure shooters in the land and will get his open looks today. His price should have taken a hit after the last game but I like him to rebound today.
Kentucky 81 at Auburn 73
Kentucky
Definitely a game where you will want to target Kentucky as Auburn plays fast and should get annihilated even at home. It’s hard not to love Julius Randle tonight in an uptempo game but he has had a hard time making value even with his low price recently. Auburn is really weak on the perimeter so James Young is definitely in play. I want to take a chance on Willie Cauley-Stein but I really cannot bring myself to do it. If he plays bad for a stretch, Calipari will just bench him for the rest of the game. I wish he would just choose between Cauley-Stein and Johnson to make it easier on all of us. I cannot argue with you using either one of the Harrison twins either in an uptempo game.
Auburn
Auburn is fairly easy to read. The only consistent fantasy options are Chris Denson and KT Harrell. Tajh Deen has scored a lot lately as well but he doesn’t bring much to the table other than that. Denson and Harrell use all of the possessions and just look to score without really involving the other players. Both will be expensive, but both are reliable options and will put up volume.
Illinois 62 at Nebraska 66
Illinois
Illinois finally got off the schneid with a win against Penn State but the real story is what John Groce is doing with the minutes. He had 10 guys play at least 10 minutes, and the only 2 who played over 30 were Rayvonte Rice and Kendrick Nunn. Nunn played the most minutes of the entire year and played the best game of his career. Will Groce stick with him? Rice really struggled against Penn State which should only help his cheap salary. I like him in this one and think he could have a solid game. Tracy Abrams played terrible which probably means he will be out of the starting lineup and I dislike everyone else just because you have no idea when or how much they will play.
Nebraska
Tim Miles has done a solid job this year but the real difference seems to be Terran Petteway. Petteway has given Nebraska a legit go-to guy who can create his own basket and affect the game in positive ways. Petteway gets the ball on almost every possession and is a really solid scoring option even in a low possession game. You will have to pay for him but he is one of the highest floor guys you can find. Other than Petteway, Walter Pitchford has been playing well recently and should be cheap and Shavon Shields gets a ton of minutes and often puts up a solid stat line. This is not the best game to choose from.
Vanderbilt and South Carolina has been postponed until Thursday due to wintry weather. Same breakdown applies for tomorrow but do not use them tonight.
Vanderbilt 67 at South Carolina 69
Vanderbilt
I actually like this spot for Vandy, as South Carolina is going to try to speed them up and force them into extra possessions. The Commodores do not have a deep bench so they will continue to play the game 6 guys all game which is great for DFS purposes. The weakness of South Carolina is their post play so my irrational love of Damian Jones could come full circle and he could pay off tonight. Jones has a really solid offensive game but struggles with foul trouble and rebounding at times. He is very cheap and will get 30 minutes of game play as long as he doesn’t pick up 2 early fouls. James Siakam also has a shot at having a nice game but he is probably the #5 option on the team and really not consistent. I like Rod Odom in this one as well, and Kyle Fuller should again prove valuable.
South Carolina
This is not the greatest spot for the Gamecocks tonight as Vanderbilt will slow them down a little and play solid defense, but I still think Sindarius Thornwell will pay off value tonight. I am assuming Tyrone Johnson will again miss as I have not heard anything about his return, so Thornwell will continue to play a ton of minutes and run the show. Vandy’s defense is good, but not good enough to stop Thornwell. Thornwell and Brenton Williams are the 2 guys you can count on the play almost the entire game, but the issue with Williams is he only shoots 3’s and if he misses, you’re toast. Duane Notice could also be a sneaky value play as Frank Martin has trusted him to play a lot of minutes as well. He has low upside but a decent floor.
Texas Tech 72 at Oklahoma 82
Texas Tech
Any game against Oklahoma is going to draw my attention. The Sooners are one of the fastest teams in the country which will allow the opposing team a ton more possessions. Last game against Oklahoma at home, it was Tolbert and Crockett who were the go-to guys. Tolbert has been 100% awful in the last 3 games so he is clear fade to me at this point. Crockett is the best player on Texas Tech and finally playing like it. He makes a solid play and will get opportunites against OU. Toddrick Gotcher is still really cheap and plays about 30 minutes per game. He could have a solid game against Oklahoma as well who struggles to defend in general. Texas Tech may get blown out here so no one else is really getting me excited.
Oklahoma
After many games of scoring near 80, the Sooners’ salaries are sky high and it is hard to recommend taking any of them. Spangler had a bagel against Baylor which should drag his price down a little but I guarantee he will not do that against TTU. Spangler actually has a solid matchup tonight and I think he produces well. Buddy Hield has been on fire and at this point appears to be Oklahoma’s go to guy. I have always liked Hield this entire year and he is proving why he is an NBA prospect in my mind. Hield will get his opportunites tonight but he is also really expensive so use carefully. Jordan Woodard has at least 7 assists in 3 straight game and is also scoring the basketball. Woodard did not play very many minutes last game but still makes a solid play tonight. If the Sooners are making shots he will have a good game.
Penn State 67 at Indiana 74
Penn State
Penn State had a 3 game win streak in the Big 10, but the conference is just so tough all around that unless you are a top team it is hard to continue any momentum. They travel to Indiana tonight who is going to play good defense and slow them down. I am not a big fan of any of the Nittany Lions tonight even though they have Tim Frazier and DJ Newbill. Newbill has scored at least 16 points in the last 8 games adding rebounds to his total and appears to be the #1 scoring option even over Frazier. Tim stuffs the stat sheet and had a poor game last time so he may be affordable enough to roster tonight even in a minus matchup. I really do not like anyone else on Penn State although Ross Travis is really cheap everywhere and it appears that Chambers has refound the trust in him as he played 30 minutes last game against Illinois even while not affecting the game much.
Indiana
The Hoosiers cannot afford to drop this game, so look for a huge dose of Yogi Ferrell and Noah Vonleh tonight. Even though Penn State’s 2pt% defense is really solid I still like the matchup of Vonleh vs their bigs. Ferrell should have a solid game as well as Penn State has let 3 point shooters shoot at a solid percentage when given the chance. Indiana’s tempo stat is a bit skewed as they have continued to play slower as the year has gone on. At this point, they are one of the slowest teams in the big 10 in my eyes. I am not liking anyone else in this game, Sheehey, Robinson, Williams, or Gordon just due to the fact I think Vonleh and Ferrell get all of the work.