College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Feb 19th
Today is a very busy day on Draftstreet and in CBB in general. They have put up the biggest college basketball tournament of all time, a 10k guaranteed with 5k for first tonight. They are really going for it here and I will be interested to see how close it gets to filling. Draftstreet has really answered the bell and if you have not checked out their site for college basketball, they have the best and most fair pricing of all 3 of the main CBB sites out there.
A long day at work has me pressed for time but I will get to as many games as possible. I will not waste the time with boring anecdotes as I really just want to get to the analysis. As always, stat projections are from KenPom.com and make sure to check injuries right before tip.
UCLA 77 at California 76
UCLA
This should be one of the most entertaining games of the night. UCLA boasts Kyle Anderson who will be the second most expensive guy on the slate tonight, and with good reason. Anderson is a triple double threat and there is no one on California who can properly guard him. The game last time was pretty inefficient the entire way around but Anderson still managed 17-5-12. He is the surest thing if you can grab him. After a 6 point performance in the Bruins last lost, Jordan Adams has been very solid lately. I think he has another solid game here as Cal gives up a pretty juicy 3 point percentage. Aside from those two however, UCLA players are really shaky. Travis Wear appeared to have become a 4th option but he slipped back into sub 20 minutes last game and everyone else just shares the scraps at the table. Target Anderson and Adams.
California
Cal is really going to be looking for revenge here at home. The Bears also play their best basketball at Haas Pavilion so they can really do some damage to UCLA in this one. Richard Solomon had a decent game against Washington but I really thought it would be better; he makes another fine play in this one. Justin Cobbs fills the stat sheet and makes a solid play if cheap, however I am not convinced this is his best matchup. Tyrone Wallace is a bit unpredictable but has one of the bigger upsides of any of the Cal players and is certainly in play in GPPs tonight. If you are looking for a dirt cheap option who is going to get minutes look no further than Ricky Kreklow. He hasn’t made much of a fantasy impact but he played 32 minutes in the last game and is involved in the offense. Kreklow should provide salary cap relief, however with minimal upside.
Creighton 75 at Marquette 70
Creighton
Well, Doug McDermott is playing here so he is obviously in play, even against Marquette. Ethan Wragge has been really disappointing lately and I think it has to do with the return of Grant Gibbs. Gibbs is pretty cheap on a site like FanDuel for a guy who stuffs the stat sheet. Gibbs can certainly provide value in this one especially if the game stays close and Marquette keys in on stopping Doug. No one else on Creighton I would really target. I really do not like using value guys on Creighton as I have mentioned before just because if Doug is going to score every possession, no one else gets anything.
Marquette
Marquette has 3 consecutive wins where their offense has been really efficient. Creighton doesn’t have the greatest defense, so even though this is going to be a slow game there could be a lot of points which means to me target scorers and not rebounders. Jamil Wilson is the guy that comes to mind here. He has been really efficient lately and could be a really nice contrarian play that not many will have. Davante Gardner has a great touch around the rim and also could score a bunch here, the problem is he never starts the game and is lucky to get 30+ minutes. When he does his best work is in overtime, so if you use him hope this one stays close. Buzz likes to use a ton of guys for a ton of minutes but do not overlook Todd Mayo for value, he has scored in double figures in 3 straight but watch out because he is one dimensional.
Arizona State 71 at Colorado 72
Arizona State
This is a very big game in the Pac-12 tonight. Arizona State looks to solidify their tournament hopes with a win against Colorado in this one. Carson had a pretty large game the last time out and has been playing well. I like his value in this game, especially against a Colorado team who struggles to guard the perimeter without their best defender in Dinwiddie. Jermaine Marshall is also in play as Colorado is one of the worst 3 point defense teams in the nation. I wouldn’t look past Jon Gilling here for value as well. I may fade Jordan Bachynski as 2nd chance points are hard to come by against Colorado and with Scott, Gordon, and Johnson they have the size inside to limit him. I love Shaq McKissic’s game but I think that Colorado matches up pretty well against him. Not a horrible play to me but not the best either.
Colorado
The Buffs have somewhat stabilized themselves after completely collapsing after the loss of Dinwiddie. They have won 4 of 5 and have actually looked pretty good in doing it. Askia Booker has really retained the leadership role and is playing his best basketball. Booker is a stud and if his price hasn’t risen, should be used in this game especially at home. He is almost a lock for 30-35 FP. Josh Scott is also a monster down low, but could run into some problems against Bachynski. Scott was limited to 11-7 in the last game but Colorado was away and a mess. He will certainly do better than that here. Xavier Johnson has embraced the 3rd option on the team very well and has a great probability to reach 20 regular points in any game. I think he is a little too pricy for Draftstreet, but should be in play on FD and DK. If Gordon continues to be limited, Xavier Talton and Jaron Hopkins also continue to be in play.
Arizona 64 at Utah 60
Arizona
Keep in mind that this score has most of Brandon Ashley’s minutes still projected into it, so Arizona should be a little closer to a pick’em. I really like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson again here as he has really been solid since the departure of Ashley. Arizona is very balanced in their starting 5, but their starting 5 are going to play almost the entire game. Utah is much better at home and I think this game could be one to avoid as the scores are a little bit low here. TJ McConnell has been really good lately and if his price hasn’t gone up he has a definite advantage over Brandon Taylor.
Utah
The Utes need this game bad, and I have been one of their biggest backers in this season. I really think they have a solid chance of taking this one down but they will need Jordan Loveridge to make some shots and play aggressive. Delon Wright is a true joy to watch, and if you haven’t caught any Utah games make sure you watch him play before this season is over. He plays basically a point forward spot with an incredible drive and touch around the rim. He knows how to create contact and get to the free throw line as well so his floor is extremely high. The problem here is that Arizona is the #1 defense in the land even without Ashley so possessions will be limited here. I can see Arizona trying to limit the possessions with a short bench in the altitude and Utah isn’t a team who loves to play fast although Larry K may try to speed it up a bunch here to take advantage of Arizona. Just avoid the players here but take Utah to win.
Illinois 60 at Minnesota 68
Illinois
Uhh, this offense is bad. No one on this team has been able to score for a while except for Rayvonte Rice and even he is struggling as the team struggles. John Groce has been playing with lineups and it looks like Kendrick Nunn is now going to get 30 minutes per game. He makes an interesting value option on a team devoid of offensive talent. Rayvonte Rice makes a fade here for me, there are such better options with more upside. In fact, unless some of the Illini are close to min salary I wouldn’t target any of them.
Minnesota
Coming off the Northwestern game where the Wildcats forced Minnesota to play sub 60 possessions and held them to 54 points, Minnesota gets another snail here. Not a big fan of anyone on Minnesota but if I had to go with someone I would go Andre Hollins like usual. Illinois is somewhat weak against the 3 and Hollins is the best 3 point shooter on the team. He can burn you but he can also carry you to victory with his medium priced salary. Mathieu may struggle a little big more in this game as Illinois stops the drive a bit better than Northwestern. Maurice Walker will get his 24 minutes and should be productive but he has to be at the right price, and really cheap.
Washington 75 at Oregon 87
Washington
My favorite game of the night! Neither team believes in defending anyone and both teams have horrible interior defenses. Both teams play at a very high pace so anyone you want to choose here could be good. I really like Desmond Simmons for value as Oregon’s interior defense is trash. Also Perris Blackwell should be solid if he can stay out of foul trouble. He is pretty good at scoring down low if he can’t defend anyone. The issue with Blackwell is he is a pretty slow mover and there may be a ton of fast-break points here which would be better for Mike Anderson and Nigel Williams-Goss. I could see CJ Wilcox hitting a bunch of threes and getting some fast break buckets here. Pick your favorite, I don’t hate any of them.
Oregon
The ucks are a little bit different than Washington as Altman has really been playing with some post defense to try to add the D back in Ducks. Waverly Austin got some time as did Elgin Cook and Richard Amardi but those guys only got like 11-15 minutes which is really hard to predict from a fantasy perspective. The guys I am targeting here are Joe Young and Mike Moser. I think both will have good games and should be able to score at will against Washington inside. I honestly have no idea what Altman is doing or what goes through his mind with the point guard spot as it appeared that Artis had regained it and was playing better but last game Loyd played almost the whole game. Way too much of a gamble for me unless we get some kind of concrete news about who will play 30 minutes.
South Carolina 73 at Arkansas 84
South Carolina
As far as I know, Tyrone Johnson is still out indefinitely but I would check to make sure. I have not heard anything about his return. For SC, it is the same 3 guys here, Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice and Brenton Williams who will be getting the minutes. I like Brenton Williams as Arkansas is pretty weak at defending the 3, and that is all Williams does. I also think that Thornwell will be able to get a bunch of buckets in transition in this one and makes a good play. Notice plays a lot but doesn’t make that much of an impact on the offensive end. I wouldn’t even contemplate using anyone else.
Arkansas
Look who made their way back into the starting lineup? Michael Qualls should continue to get extra minutes and makes a solid play in an uptempo game. I like Rashad Madden as well here but my favorite play could be Bobby Portis. The SC interior defense is essentially just a bunch of big bodies with long last names who do not play very good defense. It truly is a mess and something Arkansas will try to abuse. I like Portis, Clarke and Alandise Harris some as well here in a fast paced game against SC.
DePaul 67 at Xavier 80
DePaul
We have a few games of data since Melvin has played, and what do we see? Brandon Young is a fantasy stud. He is involved in almost every possesion, takes the most shots on the team and is fairly efficient at scoring even on a horrible offensive team. What else do we know about DePaul? Almost everyone else is horrible. Tommy Hamilton gets a ton of minutes but is so game to game that you really do not know what you will get. Billy Garrett has shown flashes this season of being good but he works better when he is not the focal point of the defense. Sandi Marcius is just not great or he would have been starring on a good team after his Purdue days rather than being an afterthought on DePaul. Curington, McDonald and McKinney you can’t trust either, especially on the road.
Xavier
This should be a solid spot for the Musketeers fantasy here. I like Matt Stainbrook who should just abuse the 302nd ranked interior defense in the land. Semaj Christon will most likely be guarded by Brandon Young but he isn’t that great of a defender as shown by DePaul’s ridiculously awful defensive rankings so Christon should have a field day as well. I like Justin Martin where he is cheap and I even think Dee Davis or Myles Davis could post value here. Xavier is definitely a solid team to look at tonight.