College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Feb 5th
There are some really solid games tonight, and not even games that are in today’s slate. San Diego State and Boise State should be a great one as should St. Louis and St. Joseph’s; Wichita State also faces it’s most likely loss for the rest of the season. Rotogrinders is about daily fantasy, however, so lets focus on the games that will win you some money tonight.
I gambled on Chris Walker and lost last night; expected Donovan to use him a little more than he did, but in 7 minutes still managed to make some impact. He should get worked more into the rotation slowly and me much more of a threat come NCAA tournament time. As always, projections are from KenPom.com tonight and while I touch on some injuries, make sure you look them up before tip.
Oklahoma 84 at West Virginia 85
Oklahoma
I said it before, that every time the Big 12 plays a slate there is always one game where you want to target players from and this is the one. You should all be familiar with Oklahoma by this point and know that tonight all 5 of their starters make solid plays. My favorite matchup of them all is Ryan Spangler as he should feast on the inept WVU frontcourt. Juwan Staten will most likely be on Jordan Woodard so I give him the worst matchup of the 5. Hield has been rocking lately and Clark has been struggling but I still like Clark’s upside here as a GPP play. This should be extremely fun as neither team likes to play defense and both teams have a great offense.
West Virginia
Juwan Staten makes the clear cut #1 play tonight as he should be able to drive and get to the free throw line at will against Oklahoma. West Virginia also gets the tempo boost in this one, so guys like Eron Harris and Terry Henderson also make solid plays. I am not really sure what to make of the WVU frontcourt as Huggins rotates guys like they are on a sit-n-spin. I would have to like Devin Williams as the top option there but I really am having a hard time getting on board with using him.
Stanford 70 at California 74
Stanford
Stanford has continued to plug along here and is looking like a decent shot to make the tournament. This would be a big resume win against a team that might have a California hangover. Dwight Powell is a stud and I really like his ability to abuse David Kravish on the offensive end. His giant game last time out raised his price but he certainly makes a good play here. I am not big on Nastic in this game as he has to roll up against Richard Solomon who should keep him in check; I never really like Nastic anyway. Cal has a really good 2 point defense and a pretty poor 3 point defense, so my 2 favorite plays for value here are Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown. Huestis also puts up some inadvisable 3’s but is basically a 10-10 lock when he plays well. Last game against Cal, Randle, Powell, and Brown went for 15, 16, and 14 respectively but none of them really made value.
California
Stanford also has a good 2 point defense and a bad perimeter defense, so Tyrone Wallace could go nuts in this one. He went for 20-2-3 last time against Stanford and made value. Even though Stanford has a good interior defense, I still like Richard Solomon. The guy is a beast inside and has this desire to grab every rebound he can. He should get his 10 points in this one and pull down 14 rebounds. Justin Cobbs is also a good play here, the leader of the Bears should have a solid game against the defense of Randle. I wouldn’t use Jabari Bird or Jordan Mathews as they are almost the same player statistically and they have taken each other’s minutes.
Minnesota 74 at Purdue 72
Purdue
It is the same old story here with Purdue, not sure what you will get out of AJ Hammons and no one else reliable to get you any upside higher than 20 FP. Hammons has been a bit more consistent lately with 2 games in a row with solid numbers but he will always have the potential to completely bust. Ronnie and Terone are the only other two who are getting consistent minutes and neither has shown me the upside I need to use them. The AJ Hammons/Elliott Eliason matchup should prove to be solid but if Hammons is playing well it doesn’t matter who is against him.
Minnesota
Andre Hollins is doubtful again so continue to fire up Malik Smith in areas where he is cheap. Smith still managed a decent stat line against Northwestern even with only 54 possessions in the game and going 1-9 from 3. I really like him here in a game which should have 15 more possessions and should be close until the end. Eliason had a terrible game the last time but was hampered with foul trouble and should be on the court for most of the game against Hammons. I do not mind using him here, nor do I mind using Austin Hollins either who is currently being underutilized. Maurice Walker has been being used 20 minutes per game in the last 4 and could be used again in this one as Minnesota will need height. He is an interesting value play.
Tennessee 65 at Vanderbilt 61
Tennessee
This should be a low scoring game here but I do think Tennessee has some value here in their bigs. Vanderbilt has a solid perimeter defense so I would stray away from Barton, McRae, and Richardson in this one but I do like Maymon and Stokes a lot. There should be a lot of missed shots so I can see Stokes racking up the rebounds and offensive putbacks as Damian Jones has shown a lack of grit around the rim. Even in a low possession game I think Stokes goes big tonight. Maymon is a bit under Stokes and will take his minutes but makes a decent gamble as well.
Vanderbilt
Tennessee is really strong inside which is the strength of their defense, but they are very weak on the perimeter which surprises me with a guy like McRae out there. Vandy is really undermanned right now and is playing games really slow to keep their guys on the floor all of the minutes. I still really like Fuller and Odom as they should never leave the court and do not foul. I like Damian Jones’ offensive game but he could have struggles moving Stokes off the block and will probably get into foul trouble. Vandy gets a tempo bump here so Fuller and Odom are in play but I do not feel comfortable with anyone else.
Auburn 74 at South Carolina 80
Auburn
Here are 2 teams who profile almost the same, as completely average teams with below average overall defenses. Auburn’s offense is run by KT Harrell and Chris Denson and those are the 2 guys who get most of the run. I really do not trust anyone else on the roster to produce except for maybe Allen Payne who has been pretty consistent around 10 points and 7 rebounds. Asauhn Dixon-Tatum could be a sleeper here, as South Carolina is miserable inside and gives up a ton of offensive rebounds. He has to stay out of foul trouble and has the penchant to disappear from the game which makes him a risk. As for Denson and Harrell, they are away from home and the perimeter defense is pretty good from South Carolina so I may not want to pay up for them.
South Carolina
There are 3 guys on this team that I trust to get minutes, although trust is an abstract word when dealing with Frank Martin. Sindarius Thornwell, Brenton Williams and Duane Notice have performed enough to stay on the court most of the last couple games and they have won both. Auburn will let you shoot the 3 willy-nilly in this one so if Brenton Williams gets hot, I could see him going nuts. Sindarius Thornwell could have another nice game and seems to be the leader of the team after Ty Johnson went down. He is a solid play anywhere where his price hasn’t risen to the top as he should get 20 in this one. South Carolina will score against Auburn so there is value to be found here, but if you haven’t been following CBB Frank Martin is the equivalent of Popovich as he will bench anyone.
Nebraska 63 at Michigan 75
Nebraska
I know Beilein won’t be happy about Michigan’s loss to Indiana and is going to look to play at a few extra possessions here. Michigan does not have a great all around defense so there should be some holes for Terran Petteway to abuse. I really am not seeing anyone from Nebraska that I like as this game should be played at just above the possessions of the Indiana/Nebraska game where no one had a good night. Shavon Shields is the one guy who I think should make value in this one as he is underpriced almost everywhere, but he did struggle last time against Michigan. The Wolverines beat the Huskers earlier this year and really held down most everyone on Nebraska in that game.
Michigan
Finally, Stauskas had a subpar game, but it was at the hands of Indiana’s ridiculously low pace. This one should be played at a few extra, and even though Stauskas had a miserable time last game against Nebraska I think he rebounds here and goes for 20. Glenn Robinson has really been a bum lately, and I have lost all faith in him putting together a solid game. The guy who is really coming on is Derrick Walton who is extremely hot from the field. He may be worth a gamble tonight if cheap. Last time these teams played, things were very balanced, and other than Stauskas getting more points I would imagine it stays the same.
Alabama 68 at Arkansas 77
Alabama
Alabama has been held to under 60 in their last 2 games which should reduce the salaries on their guys. The problem is, no one other than Trevor Releford is really worth rostering. I truly believe their 2nd best player is Nick Jacobs who is routinely riding the pine recently. Releford runs the offense and if you want to take a stab on him tonight, I definitely see the upside. With all of the others? I am not so sure.
Arkansas
Well, that was quick. Qualls and Harris are back on the team, but with the rotation that Mike Anderson uses, who knows how many minutes they will play. They are clear fades to me today, and the green lights go back to Rashad Madden, Coty Clarke and Bobby Portis. All 3 seem to have a lock on starters minutes, and if I had to pick one I would go with Portis who should abuse the garbage interior of Alabama. Fred Gulley has been the point guard lately and makes a very interesting play in this one. He has been entrusted with over half of the games recently and except for last game has made value at almost minimum salary.
Louisville 79 at Houston 67
Louisville
Wayne Blackshear is apparently going to miss this game with a concussion, so more minutes go to Hancock and Rozier. Harrell and Smith should again play almost the entire game and I really like Smith tonight to put up monster stat lines like he has recently. I would categorize him behind Staten, but definitely a top play today. Chris Jones will also get more minutes without Blackshear and I believe that Louisville will go small here. My favorite play is going to be Hancock from this game as he will be affordable and will step into more of the rebounding duties sans Blackshear. Harrell will most likely be checked by TaShawn Thomas who is an extremely good player; he should get his stats but Thomas has the ability to shut him down so be careful. Rozier and Jones are just too risky for me to use but I could see one of them going nuts tonight.
Houston
Houston has lost all confidence it appears as they lost by 23 at Rutgers who is just awful. I really liked what I saw from LJ Rose, getting the most minutes out of anyone here and should make value tonight for his cheap price. I would be cautious of him on FanDuel however as he could turn it over a lot against the Louisville pressure D. TaShawn Thomas is a stud and his price has dropped but I am still waiting for a solid time to use him where his upside is greater than against a great defensive team in Louisville. Danuel House is again getting 26-27 minutes per game and is a solid player. He should be able to score against Hancock in this game and should be pretty affordable after his injury. I wouldn’t look at anyone else as no one else is any good and Knowles is not getting very many minutes.
Washington State 56 at Colorado 68
Washington State
Washington State is pretty bad, but one bright spot is the development of DJ Shelton. Shelton has been really solid in the last few games, and continues to perform even after the return of DaVonte Lacy. Lacy should be extremely affordable and I am most likely going to attempt to roster him anywhere where 20-5 will reach value. Lacy has had one game under his belt since coming back from injury and should be prepped to play an Colorado team who is in shambles. The projection is low and the possessions will be low but I really think Shelton and Lacy are going to run this team down the stretch and put up some really solid numbers.
Colorado
A really positive sign for Colorado in this game, is in the game they took Washington State to overtime in, they essentially played without Spencer Dinwiddie. I really like Booker in this game as he should again be involved in almost all of the Colorado possessions and he had a solid game last time against WSU. Josh Scott should also produce and I am liking Xavier Johnson in this game as well as he played pretty good against Wazzu last time. I think there is value to be found here even in a low possession game.