College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Jan 15th
Do not be too surprised at Kentucky’s loss last night at Arkansas, as I think we all know who they are at this point. This is a team with no 3 point shooters, and any team with serviceable bigs will give them fits. Arkansas is a beast at home as well and will be very hard to take down at Bud Walton this year, especially with their newcomer in Portis.
Last night had some great drama with the Arkansas/UK game along with Indiana upsetting Wisconsin, and the great part of it is that we get to do it all over again tonight with different teams. The more we fill the GPPs they throw out there, the bigger they will make them. There are around 15 games tonight so let’s look at the most fantasy relevant.
UCF 76 at Rutgers 77
UCF
I like this spot for UCF as they are coming off of a UConn team who held them to 61 points. Here they face the defensively challeged Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. I believe UCF is a little bit better than their 150ish ranking just because of the emergence of Eugene McCrory, who has cut 25 pounds and is looking to cut more. McCrory has in turn played his 2 best games of the season in the last 2 and is now playing 30 minutes per game. Isaiah Sykes is one of the most dynamic triple fantasy threat guys in the country and can get you a triple double. Kasey Wilson, Tristan Spurlock, and Calvin Newell have been a bit too inconsistent for my liking lately, so I will not be gambling on them, however they all have their upside against the awful Rutgers D.
Rutgers
Seagears is expected to play tonight, but how effective he will be is to be determined. While Myles Mack will still continue to see 35 minutes per game, D’Von Campbell’s time will essentially disappear. Seagears actually helps out Mack’s value I believe and Mack should make a solid play tonight in a game which should be a bit uptempo. Kadeem Jack has somewhat settled down into his 15-7 type role so while he is solid and will be around value, the chance of him blowing up is a bit lower. Wally Judge has been awful in the past 2 losses for Rutgers and struggles against bigger frontcourts which he will see tonight. JJ Moore does not get enough shot attempts either to make him a reliable option. I would stick with Mack or Jack if you want Rutgers players. That could be a slogan for them…
Washington 71 at California 82
Washington
CJ Wilcox went nuts last game with 7 3’s and his price will rise because of it. Washington needs another good game against California tonight to keep their resurgent NCAA tourney hopes alive. Perris Blackwell has played like trash in the last couple of games and I do not necessarily see that changing here. I may avoid him altogether although his price is tempting for the only inside presence for Washington. Wilcox is the go to guy here and California allows a ton of 3’s, which could mean that potentially the best pure shooter in the country could go off again. I also like Williams-Goss in this game, with the only worry that Washington will miss their 3’s and the game will be a blowout.
California
Cal welcomes Washington to Haas Pavilion where they have been unstoppable this year. They also welcome Jabari Bird back from injury, but his minutes are not decided yet so he is a clear avoid to me. Justin Cobbs has been an absolute monster and on the highest projected scoring team of the day, he is definitely in play. Wallace’s value takes a little hit with Bird’s return but not much as he will get his minutes and will produce. You will have to pay for Richard Solomon but I really like him today against an undersized Washington team. I think a few put backs are in order for the big man today who is one of the best all around rebounders in the nation. David Kravish is also in play, because if Washington throws Blackwell on Solomon, Kravish will have his way with his corner jumper.
Georgetown 67 at Xavier 73
Georgetown
They lost Josh Smith, and now they lost Trawick which together was almost 40 minutes of playing time per game. In their one game without either, Smith-Rivera and Starks played nearly the entire game with Reggie Cameron chipping in and Aaron Bowen also chipping in some big minutes. Hopkins and Lubick were both in foul trouble so neither played as much as anticipated. Reggie Cameron has gone from a 4 minute per game filler to a starter playing 32 minutes in an overtime game. He also took 7 3 pointers in this game, making 1 and I have no idea if he is a good 3 point shooter or not as we have no solid data. He could be an interesting look if he is min salary. Even with Lubick’s awful game I think that he is the most likely to post good fantasy stats tonight. He was the most involved in the offensive possessions out of the other 4 forwards and only sat due to foul trouble. Moses Ayegba also had foul trouble but managed 6 points and 8 rebounds in 15 minutes. There is value to be had here, but knowing who is just a crapshoot. I still really like Smith-Rivera, but you will have to pay, and Starks should get his as well.
Xavier
Semaj Christon is playing incredible right now putting up points left and right and chipping in in other areas. After dropping 3 straight in November, Xavier has really battled back and the win over Cincinnati is looking massive right now. Christon is a go if you can afford him and one guy I really like as well is Justin Martin. He has came on lately with 13-7 15-8 and 21-8 in his last 3. Martin should be able to abuse the suspect bigs that Georgetown throws out there. Matt Stainbrook is a rock inside for the Musketeers and is essentially a lock for 10 rebounds. I think Stainbrook will go to work inside on Georgetown and make their foul-prone guards pay. The one thing that concerns me however about Xavier however is their recent games where they have scored 79, 86, and 89 points where today’s team is only projected to score 73.
Baylor 69 at Texas Tech 66
Baylor
I have a feeling this game is going to be ugly as both teams are 2 of the slowest in the country. The one team I would target would be Baylor as they will be up against the suspect defense of Texas Tech. TTU is going to have a hard time matching up against Cory Jefferson in this one and it may finally be a time where I use the big man. I have always thought Kenny Chery should be putting up bigger numbers because he can, but he is generally allowing the role players to do the damage, so I am avoiding him today in a low pace game. Austin has come on a little bit lately with double figures in 9 straight (playing over 20 minutes), but his rebounding numbers are not there. He has made improvements on playing closer to the basket but still lacks the strength to bang inside and the killer instinct to dominate. I like him on a site like FanDuel, but he is price dependent on the other sites. Gathers, Prince and O’Neale are all very minutes and situation dependent so I am looking them over today.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is projected to keep this one close even though they are terrible. They have 2 decent players in Jaye Crockett and Jordan Tolbert but not much else. Both Crockett and Tolbert are priced too high for my liking, and the other players on this team are not reliable, especially against a tall, defensive, slow team in Baylor. One guy who is min priced on FanDuel is Toddrick Gotcher who usually gets about 30 minutes per game and has put up some stats. I would not argue about using him today.
Michigan State 67 at Northwestern 57
Michigan State
MSU is not terribly slow by any means but Northwestern is which will drag MSU down in this game. There is some value however with Payne and Dawson both likely to sit in this one, so Appling, Harris, Costello, Valentine all make solid plays. MSU is going to have to get production from somewhere considering how terrible Northwestern is in every aspect of the game except for defense. Michigan State’s offense is not Illinois offense though so I would be surprised to see another game with such a low total.
Northwestern
The Illinois game was just incredibly painful, all around. Sobolewski is most likely out again for this one which will force Collins to roll with a 6 man rotation again. Lumpkin, Crawford, Olah, Cobb and Demps will get all the run they can handle with Abrahamson getting some as well. Tre Demps makes the most interesting play to me as he is one of Northwestern’s best shooters outside of Crawford and should be cheap everywhere. I would also look towards JerShon Cobb who is playing better since the disastrous games after his injury. Overall there is not much to like here but I can see some value.
Purdue 66 at Illinois 72
Purdue
The curious case of AJ Hammons continues as no one can figure out why he cannot dominate day in and day out. Tonight against Illinois should be a time where he is able to do some damage as the only guy that Illinois has in the middle is Nnanna Egwu. Purdue is a bit of an enigma offensively as they will run 10 guys out there over 10 minutes per game. I think it’s best just to avoid this situation entirely however AJ Hammons makes a nice gamble play where available.
Illinois
The Illini’s offense is in the pits right now after ruining the game of basketball in their last game against Northwestern. To make matters worse, they may not have Rayvonte Rice in this game due to an adductor strain. If he cannot go look for Tracy Abrams to pick up some of the slack against a poor Purdue defense. Bertrand and Ekey would also get bumps if he is ruled out for the game. Even if Rice plays, his injury sounds pretty painful so I would avoid him altogether.
LSU 72 at Mississippi 74
LSU
This game is not available on FanDuel for some strange reason, but players are still there on DS and DK. Johnny O’Bryant was one of my favorite plays last year as he was a complete beast without anyone else to rebound the ball. Now LSU has frontcourt help in Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin and O’Bryant’s value has dropped considerably. I would not categorize Ole Miss’ inside game as awful with Cox, Saiz and Jones, but they certainly are not Holloway and Buckner. I think the LSU frontcourt will have a nice game tonight with Mickey and JOB3 leading the way. Hickey and Stringer have been pretty bad recently so I would not use them tonight as one of them is going to be chasing Marshall Henderson all over the floor.
Mississippi
Henderson returns in this game to face a solid defensive LSU team. Luckily for him, LSU is a bit weaker on 3 point defense than they are on 2 point defense. LSU does not give up that many 3’s but since when has Marshall Henderson cared about defending the 3? The guy will shoot from anywhere, anytime. I like him on DraftKings with the 3 point bonus but anywhere else you’re basically banking on him getting hot and scoring 30 points since he does not chip in anywhere else. Jarvis Summers is still a good play because he did damage with Henderson out, but I would avoid the post players for Ole Miss as they will receive less shot attempts, along with avoiding Millinghaus and White.
Notre Dame 72 at Maryland 77
Notre Dame
The Irish come into this game after beating Duke 3 games ago but then dropping the next 2 to NC State and Georgia Tech. The Irish are a mess and the composition of their stats should look somewhat like the last 2 games. Atkins will get his 20, Connaughton will get his, and Sherman will be a beast down low, so continue to use them, but Notre Dame desperately needs a 4th option to appear. At this point, I do not even feel like gambling as none of the other players is involved, and it just ramps up the value for the big 3. Atkins and Sherman make great plays, especially Atkins and Connaughton against a Maryland team who is allowing teams to shoot 38% against them from 3.
Maryland
I love Maryland for value tonight, the problem is who to choose? They are coming off scoring 59 and 61 points but should be able to crack 70 easily against Notre Dame at home. The problem with Maryland is they play 9 guys a ton of minutes and only Smotrycz and Wells are entrenched in the starting lineup. Both guys make solid gambles tonight and I think you could make the case for Faust as well. Turgeon will play a rotating door of bigs against Sherman so I don’t really like any of the Maryland bigs here either.