College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Jan 22nd
Thirteen games on the docket for today and I am a bit short on time so I will get to the most relevant games for you all. There has been a pretty nice influx of players to college hoops since NFL ended, so it’s as good of a time as any to get in there and win some money.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com, and for the injuries at the bottom of the page, definitely check before tip for any new news.
Iowa 76 at Michigan 78
Iowa
Iowa has played the last 8 games over 70 possessions per game and even managed to play a 70 possession game against Northwestern. They are the 12th fastest team in the country and have one of the best offenses, so there are points to go around. The problem is, they are completely balanced and except for Devyn Marble and Aaron White, no one really plays over 25 minutes. Other than those 2, I really cannot get on board with recommending any other players from Iowa, they just are not consistent enough with minutes. That being said, Marble and White should both have good games as they should be forced on the court late in a close one.
Michigan
I really like taking players from Michigan here. They are coming off some really slow teams in Wisconsin and Northwestern, albeit they did manage 68 possessions against Wisconsin. Now they play Iowa and definitely get a tempo boost. If Stauskas is a reasonable price, he is one of the top options today. He is still underpriced for his skill level and for the amount of useage he gets in the offense. I think this might be the game where Glenn Robinson breaks the 20 point barrier, the problem is he isn’t contributing in any other categories. I can also get on board with Caris LeVert here but he is hit or miss. Iowa has a good defense but there should be a lot of quick shots and possible transition work here.
Wisconsin 70 at Minnesota 68
Wisconsin
The Badgers have lost 2 straight, and were uncharacteristically sped up by Michigan last game. I am not too high on this game because I think that Bo Ryan is going to get back to Wisconsin basics playing sag defense and slow down the game. I would be surprised if either team reached 60 here and being as the Badgers share the ball extremely well, I do not think there is an upside play on this team unless you get a salary bargain. The solid thing however is that the entire starting 5 plays most of the game so you can use Dekker, Brust, Jackson and Kaminsky for a high floor in H2H games just do not expect anything outlandish.
Minnesota
Minnesota played a lot of possessions against MSU, then were slowed down against Ohio State and were sped back up by Iowa. With Wisconsin coming to town I think this game slows way down and the value here is hurt. I would look at Elliot Eliason as he has been a rock in the rebounding department and only struggled against Iowa because of foul trouble. Eliason should be able to do damage against Kaminsky. The only worry here is that Kaminsky will pull Eliason out to the 3 point arc which will hurt their rebounds. Wisconsin does not let you take 3’s so I would avoid Austin and Andre Hollins tonight as well.
Arkansas 69 at Tennessee 77
Arkansas
This is a horrible spot for Arkansas going to Tennessee after a heartbreaking loss to Georgia in overtime. We know 2 things about Arkansas; they are just dreadful on the road, and they play a long rotation with a lot of spread around minutes. I really dislike all of their players today against a snail in Tennessee who plays solid defense. Bobby Portis is the exception as he continues to be underpriced on DraftKings and FanDuel. He is risky especially in this game, but his price cannot be beaten there.
Tennessee
As bad of a spot for Arkansas this is, it is a great one for Tennessee. The only fast game they have played recently was the 78 point outburst against Auburn where all 5 starters had very nice games. Jarnell Stokes is going to be expensive after his monster game against Kentucky but I really can get on board with anyone from Tennessee here. They should see an extra 7-10 possessions in this game and all should provide value.
Texas Tech 70 at West Virginia 75
Texas Tech
I remember last year when Texas Tech was fast and awful defensively. Now they are just bad defensively and slow. They travel to West Virginia today who is coming off 3 losses in a row and will be looking to abuse the holes in Tech’s defense. Toddrick Gotcher played 37 minutes last game and remains min salary on FanDuel, and I have no problem using him here especially since he score 17 points earlier this year against WVU. I don’t know what to make of Kravic but he has played 38 and 33 minutes in the last 2 games and is up against a weak interior of West Virginia where he should be able to get some easy looks even though he was bad against WVU in the last game. Jordan Tolbert has monster upside but has been struggling lately and his minutes are down. Jaye Crockett is the best player on the team and makes a solid play if cheap, I just would not get too cute and get too much exposure to Texas Tech here.
West Virginia
The struggling Mountaineers welcome home a bad defense who is just bad all around. They are coming off 3 losses where they really struggled to do anything well outside of their 2 horses in Staten and Harris. These two teams met in Lubbock earlier in a game which went to OT and was a fast paced game. Staten is a stud so plug him in as you see fit. Eron Harris really only shoots 3’s but is a solid scorer and makes a decent play here. Harris had 18 and Staten had 25 the last time these two teams met. I find it really hard to use anyone else just because of how involved Harris and Staten are.
Mississippi 70 at Vanderbilt 72
Mississippi
Ole Miss is a hard team to read with Henderson in the lineup as Kennedy appears to be rotating minutes outside of those 2. Marshall Henderson is almost a lock to throw up 15 3’s per game, but Vanderbilt has stopped the 3 effectively well this year. I am not sure this is the best matchup for Henderson, but if you are looking for pure volume and he is cheap there are many worse options out there. Jarvis Summers has been an absolute stud lately, especially at getting to the free throw line. Vandy’s interior defense is soft and I would put Summers as a better play than Henderson today. If you want to gamble on forward due to Vandy’s inside struggles, I would first look at Aaron Jones who seems to be the most trusted option out there, but they all bring risk.
Vanderbilt
We have 4 games without Eric McClellan for Vandy and the recurring theme is that Kyle Fuller, Rod Odom, and Dai-Jon Parker are going to be playing almost the entire game. That makes all 3 guys pretty solid plays in my eye in this one as they have competed in 3 of the 4 games, one of them against Kentucky. Rod Odom is probably your best bet, but his salary will be the most expensive. I think Parker has the least upside of the 3 but he also should be the cheapest. I also really think that Damian Jones could put together a nice value game against Ole Miss if he can stay out of foul trouble.
California 78 at USC 71
California
Because this game is at USC, we could be looking at a semi-tight finish here which would bump the Cal guards a bit more. USC has some pretty awful interior defense so I love Richard Solomon here, I think he is on tap for one of his 18-12 type games. Cal was slowed a little by Washington State last game but should be back at a high tempo against the fast Trojans. It’s hard to really dislike anyone on Cal but Solomon and Cobbs are the clear-cut top 2 options with Wallace a distant 3rd. Wallace is a bit too expensive for my liking right now so I will be fading him tonight especially with Bird getting back to full strength.
USC
This is a pretty solid spot for a couple of USC guys who will play against a Cal team who will welcome them trying to run. JT Terrell is a very risky GPP gamble who could pay off as Cal has been pretty poor on allowing good 3 point shots this year and Terrell takes a ton of them. The bad side is you never know how many minutes he will play. Pe’Shon Howard has somewhat cut his 3 point shooting back but also could provide some nice value as they will need him to knock a few down. I dislike Byron Wesley as he does most of his damage around the rim and Solomon and Kravish have done a good job of protecting it. Nikola Jovanovic has been minpriced on FanDuel for some time and been a tempting value option but has really disappointed lately along with Oraby.
TCU 68 at Oklahoma 86
TCU
Many might think that TCU provides no value here but I disagree. They are one of the fastest teams TCU has played in the Big 12 season and they also have a pretty poor defense. The problem is that TCU’s offense makes little children cry. Kyan Anderson has been absolutely miserable lately but still brings solid upside to the table if he can figure out how to get his offensive game right. He is a risk, but at just over 10k on DS makes a good semi value option. Amric Fields has also been very solid since returning from injury. He plays almost the entire game and is very involved in the offense. I think he makes value today against OU.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s scorers are probably looking at this game excited to not have to play against the snails of Baylor and Kansas State anymore. Hield should have another solid game and I’m looking at Cameron Clark for another breakout 20pt 10reb game where he carries a fantasy team to victory. Spangler seems to struggle in weird times, and I am not too keen on a matchup against a decently stout TCU 2 point defense which will most likely be in zone a lot. I think we see a lot of jumpers from Hield and Clark today.
Value Plays and Injury notes:
Chris Jones will be out again for Louisville so fire up Terry Rozier as another solid value option. Also expect Russ Smith to get more shots than usual.
IJ Ready will be out again for Mississippi State but that does not really change much. In fact Miss St has a solid matchup against Auburn and guys like Sword and Ware are actually in play tonight.
DaVonte Lacy not expected to return tonight against Oregon State, so Que Johnson, DJ Shelton and Royce Woolridge should run the offense against the Beavers. Washington State’s offense is the worst in the Pac-12 but they are at home against Oregon State who refuses to guard, so there is value to be found here.
Tyrone Johnson is out after breaking his foot so if you want to play Russian Roulette with Frank Martin’s lineups, Brenton WIlliams and Sindarius Thornwell should be given all the run they can handle. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you if the guy you choose only gets 10 minutes.
Ben Emelogu and Adam Smith both questionable for tonight against Wake. Probably best to just avoid this situation but one would expect Jarell Eddie to bounce back and Devin Wilson to be very involved in the offense tonight.