College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Jan 8th
There is a pretty big Wednesday night on tap for CBB with around 14 games on the docket. The GPPs are growing in size with the end of CFB and NFL so it’s as good of a time as any to jump into College Hoops. Draftstreet bumped their GPPs to a bit bigger size tonight and are easily going to fill them, so this is a great sign.
I am going to do the same as I did last time to try to get to as many games as possible out here as there is so much to sift through. As always, you can find the stats on KenPom.com and the score projections are directly from there. Conference play has really changed the game for some players, so I would concentrate on a player’s success/failure against good teams when doing research.
Kansas 85 at Oklahoma 81
Kansas
This is the best game on the schedule tonight and I would not be surprised to see Oklahoma pull the upset in this one. Definitely a game you want to target here with a pretty high competitive total. Naadir Tharpe has been playing the lions share of the minutes while taking his starting job back from Mason a few games ago. Mason has also been playing about 25 minutes in the last couple but both only make speculative options if they are cheap. Wiggins should see time at PF today to match up with Cam Clark, so expect his rebounding numbers to get a boost and should be able to use his transition prowess a lot today. I actually like this matchup for him and I think we could see a 20-8 game from him. Embiid has a great matchup as well as Oklahoma has no one over 6-8 and I do not trust Spangler to check him. Could be a monster block game for him, so he makes a great play on FanDuel. Perry Ellis is extremely frustrating, but does see a lot of time and usage in a high scoring game, just be wary he does put up duds. I really do not like using Selden all that much, he just does not get enough opportunities.
Oklahoma
Lon Kruger’s team is playing at a massive tempo this year and playing their starters big minutes making everyone on Oklahoma a target. I would shy away from Cam Clark in this game as he has been struggling in 2 of the last 3 games and if Wiggins guards him could have an awful time getting open looks. On the other hand, Buddy Hield makes a fantastic play as he will have a size advantage over whoever guards him and is guaranteed to shoot 10-15 shots per game along with some auxiliary stats. Ryan Spangler could find a tough go of it against Embiid, so I am not high on him but I still like Jordan Woodard even though he has struggled a bit lately, I think he could get it going in this one.
Georgetown 66 at Providence 65
Georgetown
The Hoyas travel to Providence today looking to swipe an important Big East road win from a team which again is in shambles. This game projects to be low scoring, but Providence has no confidence right now after losing 3 in a row and Georgetown is playing well after dismantling St. John’s. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is starting to have the breakout season I thought he would and should be in consideration with his matchup against Josh Fortune who is only out there because he has to be. Markel Starks will draw Cotton and should play the entire game like usual and get his 25 fpts. I do not consider Nate Lubick or Jabril Trawick to be a fantasy option as they just are just not part of the offensive gameplan enough to warrant consideration. After starting out the year nicely, Josh Smith has really disappeared into 20 minutes per game and a non-factor for G’town as well so I wouldn’t use him either.
Providence
It seems that for the last 3 years Ed Cooley has put together a promising team but transfers and injuries never make Providence live up to potential, Kris Dunn, Brandon Austin, Ricky Ledo are all top recruits who have not played much at all, leaving Ed Cooley’s team shorthanded. Not only that, but Cooley’s home caught fire the other night, so what else can go wrong? The good thing is that while Cotton is not a true PG, he can be counted on to play and to score and is the top fantasy option for the Friars. You will have to pay for him, and while I think he can easily top 30 FP in this one, I do not see him going higher than 40 in a low scoring game. Freshman Tyler Harris has played amazingly well, and his price has risen as such. He struggled mightily against Villanova however, so unless his price has dropped back down, I would consider fading him today. LaDontae Henton should again provide 25-28 fantasy points as he has been solid in the last few games. Kadeem Batts has really dropped his production, I think in part to the emergence of Harris along with foul trouble, but I really do not like anyone too much on the Friars tonight.
Minnesota 74 at Penn State 73
Minnesota
Here comes a medium scoring game in the Big 10 which could provide some value. Andre and Austin Hollins again are almost identical in their stats and salaries, and both have a pretty good matchup against a pretty bad Penn State defense. Andre is a bit more involved, and takes more shots, and is a marginally better shooter so I would lean Andre if you had to choose but both should make good plays today. I am really not liking Deandre Mathieu as their last game he sat a good portion of the game and could be losing time to Malik Smith. Elliott Eliason makes a speculative play as there really is no one on Penn State who can defend him and Egwu put up a good game the last time out against them.
Penn State
I love this matchup today for Tim Frazier against Mathieu as he should be able to see over the diminutive guard and get a boost in assists. Frazier’s price is a bit depressed right now due to 2 games where he struggled so grab him at a discount as he is a stud. Being at home, Penn State should keep this competitive as well. The same reasoning applies to Newbill as DJ and Tim are the 2 guys who look to score for Penn State. Newbill was absolutely horrid last time out against Illinois but he has a good track record from last year in the Big 10. John Johnson has came into the Penn State lineup and provided a scoring punch, but that is about it, he has 1 rebound and 1 assist in 3 games, just not someone I am going to rely on as his upside is about 20FP. Ross Travis played his worst game, possibly ever last time out going 0-6 and picking up 4 rebounds. He is usually good for about 25 fantasy points so I am willing to write it off as a fluke but it does make me a bit nervous, the good thing is his price should have dropped and he is usually a solid play, and will be against Osenieks.
Utah 74 at Washington 73
Utah
Here we have a matchup of the countries’ best 2pt% team in Utah against one of the worst 2pt% defense in Washington. Utah should be able to get whatever they want inside, but who knows who Larry K will send out there. I majorly whiffed when I though Dallin Bachynski was going to get more minutes against Oregon State, as he got 15 and gave up time to Olsen, and Olsen was the one who made value. Also in the mix is Renan Lenz, so unless you really like to gamble on minutes, stay away from this situation entirely. I absolutely love Delon Wright today, he takes a ton of 2’s, and should be able to get whatever he wants against the short Huskies. Wright will be able to drive and score at will and makes a better play than Loveridge. I am going 100% all in on Wright in this one. Loveridge does not make a terrible play, but I like Wright more than him and Loveridge takes a ton more 3’s which Washington is better at defending. Brandon Taylor went off last game, and I cannot see him having the same effect this game, so I think he is a little too expensive for my tastes.
Washington
Washington has played very well so far this Pac-12 conference play and is going to have to do the same today. They really miss N’Diaye and run a fairly short lineup out there, especially if Blackwell gets into any foul trouble. CJ Wilcox should again have a very nice game at home and if he ends up guarding Wright could end up with some extra rebounds tonight. I like Nigel Williams-Goss as well against Brandon Taylor as Morris-Walker and Cooke for Oregon State were able to do whatever they wanted against him. I am not as big of a fan of Andrew Andrews as he may have some issues with Utah’s height. Blackwell makes me nervous but should get all the time he could hope for and I like him for a double double tonight.
Wake Forest 57 at Virginia 64
Wake Forest
Wake Forest took out UNC on Sunday, and if you look at their resume, they really haven’t lost to any bad teams yet. This is going to be a very solid test against a grind it out defensive team in Virginia. No matter who plays Virginia is going to slow you down and keep you from scoring, so I really do not like anyone from Wake in this game as they will struggle to get to 60 points and most of their players are overpriced. Tennessee lit up Virginia by demoralizing them with the 3 ball which is the way to do it, so if you are looking for a solid cheap option from Wake, try Coron Williams who loves to shoot the 3 ball and can get hot. He is a risk but could pay off in this one.
Virginia
Joe Harris is questionable right now with a concussion and I expect him to sit out this one. Without him last game, Justin Anderson played fantastic and Akil Mitchell finally came back to life. I like both for value tonight and think that Virginia could play into a lot of value here as well. Keep checking on his status, but if he sits, Mitchell and Anderson both have 30FP potential in a low scoring game.
Texas 71 at Oklahoma State 85
Texas
This should be a run and gun affair with Oklahoma state getting the best of the Longhorns, but we shall see. I have no idea what to make of Javan Felix as he played a ton of minutes last game and put up his best stat line of the season against Oklahoma. I still do not trust him but he makes a solid GPP gamble. Felix’s gain seems to be Taylor’s loss and maybe Rick Barnes is going with experience in the conference season or maybe it was due to Taylor’s foul trouble last game. Still, I would not use either in a H2H unless they were bottom 30% pricing. You can pretty much expect 15-5 with minimal upside from Holmes no matter the opponent, so make your own decision there, and I really think Ridley could break through with a monster game against the bad Oklahoma State frontcourt tonight.
Oklahoma State
No Michael Cobbins, so I went high on Kamari Murphy last Saturday assuming he would grab some minutes, which he did. He got 33 minutes and did absolutely nothing with them, annihilating my teams with the help of Ross Travis’ dud. Murphy has continuously played more minutes throughout the season and I am not willing to give up on him again. His price should have dropped, and he should still get 30+ minutes today. Oklahoma State is basically running a 6 man rotation until they get someone who can step in and play, so essentially everyone on OSU could be a value play. I like the entire starting lineup tonight and would not fault you for using Phil Forte either if he is cheap.
Miami FL 58 at North Carolina 68
Miami FL
The Hurricanes come into this game with really not much going for them except that they are facing North Carolina. UNC has lost to 2 teams who are actually worse than Miami, and Miami played Syracuse tight for the whole game. The problem with that is they only scored 44 points, so fantasy potential is somewhat limited. Miami is essentially the slowest team in the country, so if you want upside, do not look here. Rion Brown is the guy you want if you want to play someone from Miami, but I really cannot recommend anyone here.
North Carolina
At this point, would anyone be surprised to see UNC lose this one? I do not think they well, but I would not be surprised at all. Leslie McDonald is still cheap across the industry and is going to take his shots, so he makes a solid value play. After a horrible start to the season McAdoo has somewhat righted the ship and started to score more. The fact of the matter is that he is just not efficient offensively and his numbers are down across the board from last year. I think he could struggle a bit against one of the slowest teams in the country. Marcus Paige is also a decent play but is really expensive and is in a slow paced game, so be careful here.
Colorado 69 at Washington State 62
Colorado
Colorado scored 100 points against Oregon the other day so be careful with the salaries here. Colorado still has a great matchup and Josh Scott should be able to dominate Washington State inside as their only decent player is DJ Shelton there. I love Spencer Dinwiddie in this game and he should be able to dominate with DaVonte Lacy out as Washington State has no one who can defend Dinwiddie. Askia Booker in my mind is a bit overpriced due to his recent hot streak but Wesley Gordon and Xavier Johnson could also provide value.
Washington State
Remember what happened last time DaVonte Lacy did not play? Well Washington State scored 25 points against Arizona. Colorado’s defense is good but it’s no Arizona so there could be some value to find here. Royce Woolridge, DJ Shelton and Que Johnson are those I am looking at for value but they need to be bottom 30-40% salary to even consider them as Washington State is just an awful team. I am only recommending these guys because Wazzu is at home, and minutes will be easier to be had. If they only score 40 tonight they could really be the worst major conference team out there.