College Basketball Grind Down: Wed, Mar 5th
Definitely a great time in college basketball as we still have bubble teams vying for position every night and we also have day basketball with teams in their conference tournaments playing to stay alive. It is a really good time to jump into some college hoops to get ready for the NCAA tournament which will be happening in 2 weeks time. Do not fret if you haven’t played yet, I will break it down for you right here.
There is a nice slate out there tonight with a good number of games and some value plays. As always, score projections are from KenPom.com and always check injury concerns on twitter before tip.
Louisville 68 at SMU 69
Louisville
Two hall of fame coaches with highly ranked teams who are at the top of their respective conferences battle tonight in Louisville and SMU. Yes, Southern Methodist, that is not a typo. If you have been around most of the season you realize that SMU has one of the best interior defenses in the league, so I am very wary about Montrezl Harrell’s potential here. He has annihilated basically every defense he has faced but if I am fading him on any night it is here. SMU is solid defensively overall and this game should be a bit slower overall so I am being cautious with my Louisville players here. I think Russ Smith is the guy if you want someone from Louisville but be careful as Hancock, Rozier, Jones and Blackshear all did not play very well against Memphis and this game should be slower. If you look at last game it was Smith and Hancock who did the damage and I would expect that to continue here.
SMU
Markus Kennedy is the stud for SMU and even after some poor games last game against UCF was one of his better games of the year. It’s going to be an uphill climb for him against Harrell and he could struggle. Nic Moore has been the glue that has held this team together and is very involved in the offense but I am not feeling him tonight. SMU outside of those two has been spreading around the minutes fairly religiously and outside of Nick Russell no one is doing much. Those are the only 3 I would consider for consistent points.
Utah 70 at California 71
Utah
Another chance here for me to use Delon Wright. Wright is one of the most under appreciated players in the nation, but all he has done is rack up stats in every category all year. California’s defense has collapsed in the last 2 games and they have basically given other teams whatever they want. It’s not the 100% best matchup for Wright but he should do well tonight. Jordan Loveridge is the other guy who the offense runs around. Loveridge has gone for 18 and 21 in his last 2 and he likes the outside shot where California has been struggling. If his price is still cheap I think he could have a really nice game tonight. Brandon Taylor is the other guy who gets consistent minutes but I usually don’t use him because the team is dominated by the previous 2. The frontcourt situation is just absurd and I have given up trying to figure out who will play and who won’t play. Just avoid those players.
California
Now squarely on the bubble after looking like a lock earlier in the season, the Bears really need this win against a solid Utah team. This is going to be a tough game especially if they do not get their defense on lock. One guy I will be taking a long look at today is Richard Solomon whose price has dropped dramatically as his how he has played. He is really struggling right now but when he is on he is a double double lock and definitely has the potential to pay off his number tonight. Ricky Kreklow is min salary on almost every site and while he isn’t that great of a play, you could do worse for your value plays. I do not like Jabari Bird or Jordan Mathews DFS wise as Kreklow has really taken their minutes and they rely on shooting. Justin Cobbs is the guy to own here if you want a Cal player as he is the heart and the soul of this team and the offense runs through him.
Nebraska 65 at Indiana 69
Nebraska
Indiana has looked much better in the last 2 and has been playing a very uptempo style while defending the 3 extremely well. Nebraska doesn’t have that great of an offense outside of Terran Petteway. His price will surely have dropped after the last two sub 60 possession games against Illinois and Northwestern. I like Petteway tonight as he will certainly be the focus of the offense in a game Nebraska needs dearly. One guy to look at for value is David Rivers who has been playing a lot of minutes recently. He won’t give you that upside but he recently has been playing around 25 minutes per game and scoring. Two other guys who might be worth a look if cheap enough are Shavon Shields and Walter Pitchford, both of whom should play a lot to match the height Indiana will roll out there. I like Shields of the two and Shields has the penchant to have a ridiculous performance every couple of weeks.
Indiana
The Hoosiers have been playing a lot better in their last 2 games, all thanks to the play of Will Sheehey and Yogi Ferrell. Sheehey has been very solid in the last two and I know he doesn’t want his senior year to end on a bad note. Will is definitely in play today for cheap enough. Noah Vonleh should be back after sitting out last game but his status is still up in the air. Even if he does return, I question his effectiveness and I would just avoid him here. If Ferrell is affordable, I would definitely consider him, but I would fade the rest of Indiana.
West Virginia 80 at Oklahoma 89
West Virginia
First thing to look at here is Terry Henderson’s status. He did make the trip but at this time is looking doubtful to play. This would bump up Eron Harris and even Remi Dibo who can make shots. This game should be extremely fast and Oklahoma should give up a bunch of looks at 3 so these guys are definitely in play. You basically know what you will get from Staten, a 35+ fantasy point day and that does not change here. You will have to pay for him but he is one of the most consistent options you can have. The frontcourt is still a mess but Devin Williams and Nathan Adrian should continue to get the looks in the middle against Spangler.
Oklahoma
The Sooners, like usual, are in the fastest paced game of the day and have one of the highest totals. I will love to try to stack from this game and I love Hield, Clark and Spangler. Woodard really struggled last game against Texas, but his last monster game came against these Mountaineers so he should rebound today. Isaiah Cousins is a roller coaster but it’s hard to ignore the total in this game. If the OU score reaches the projected total, it’s hard to see Cousins not being a part of it. Make sure you get exposure to this one.
Colorado 69 at Stanford 76
Colorado
Colorado is in an interesting position here where they need to solidify their resume but this game will be difficult to do it in. Their score of 69 may seem low but they have scored less than that in their last 3 games and the big 3 have seen their prices take a hit. It’s hard for me to see Askia Booker struggling again in this one and I think he will have a nice game, you just have to hit him at the right salary. Josh Scott at first glance should have an easy time with Nastic inside but if Stanford comes out in a zone, they do a very nice job at taking away the inside. Xavier Johnson should also rebound in this game, but I wouldn’t use anyone else.
Stanford
Both of these teams come off brutal losses to Arizona and are looking to get back on track. Josh Huestis has been an abosolute monster recently and is playing his best ball of the season. If his price hasn’t risen, take a long look at using him. I still think Powell is the better fantasy play however even considering his recent struggles. Powell just has so many weapons to use and his head should be better after taking the shot to the ear area. Chasson Randle has struggled a bit lately but is one of the more consistent scorers. Colorado’s defense is awful against the 3 point shot, so he could be in line for a monster game.
Tennessee 74 at Auburn 68
Tennessee
I was on the Tennessee fade train when they played Vanderbilt and although they blew them out, basically no one made value as they coasted to the finish. Jarnell Stokes was his usual self, grabbing a double double. Auburn is a fast team with some awful defense so I am definitely looking into Tennessee players today. Stokes should be another fantastic play and I also like Jordan McRae to rebound after his struggles against Vandy. If I’m playing Tennessee players I am playing the studs as I think there is better value elsewhere so I won’t be using Barton, Richardson, or Maymon as they are just too inconsistent for me even against the awful perimeter defense of Auburn.
Auburn
Chris Denson was used as a turnstyle multiple times by Randolph and Releford and he just isn’t a good defender. Harrell isn’t a great defender either, but the good thing for these guys is that McRae and Barton don’t like to play defense either. Denson has been one of the most consistent players except for last game and I am going to look for him to get back up on the train here and go for 26 points and 5 rebounds or the like. I generally do not want to use any forwards from Auburn but especially not against Tennessee who has some huge bodies in the paint that really stop other teams from getting easy buckets. Auburn is going to have to score with Denson, Harrell, and Shamsid-Deen if they want to win.
Arizona 72 at Oregon State 62
Arizona
After struggling for a brief 6 game stretch without Brandon Ashley, Arizona has found themselves again and just massacred the last 3 teams they have faced, all tournament teams. They have been very efficient on offense, scoring around 80 points every single time. Everyone is getting in on the act and Aaron Gordon is playing like a stud if he can avoid foul trouble. It’s hard to recommend any specific Arizona player outside of Gordon in this game as they all have been playing well, including Gabe York who has been one of the industries favorite value plays. York is a little bit too risky being the 6th man on this team so I would stick with Hollis-Jefferson, or Tarczewski for a little salary relief.
Oregon State
The Beavers get Arizona at home, and that’s about the only good news. Arizona is on a tear and should be able to shut down the OSU offense completely. I am avoiding this entire team against the #1 team in the nation and not even Roberto Nelson’s price being low across the industry can talk me into this one. The #1 defense, coupled with Craig Robinson and his rotation issues when the team struggles make this a clear fade for me.
Duke 80 at Wake Forest 69
Duke
Wake Forest is actually one of the quicker teams in the nation and Duke is going to get a little tempo bump here. The Blue Devils have been playing slow lately and have seen a decrease in efficiency as they have struggled to break 70 points in their last few games. Wake Forest shouldn’t pose a barrier to that however as they are pretty bad. Rodney Hood has been scoring the ball better lately but still hasn’t solved his rebounding woes so his upside is still limited. Jabari Parker was great against Wake last time when he went for 21-8 and I think he can definitely do that again, although you are going to have to pay up for him. Rasheed Sulaimon is turning into one of the better fantasy options as he is scoring in double figures and effecting the game in assists and rebounds lately without Quinn Cook being a facilitator. I am not sure what happened with Cook, but he just doesn’t seem to be the same player and there are comparable players around his price range with higher floors.
Wake Forest
Wake went inside early and often against Duke in their previous game which allowed Devin Thomas to put up a nice stat line at the beginning of the game, however they strayed away from it later and Thomas did next to nothing in the 2nd half. I think Thomas is the best fantasy asset on this team as McKie disappears from time to time and Miller-McIntyre has failed to make a fantasy impact on a consistent basis recently. None of the other Wake players are worth using either. Duke is weak inside so I would look for Wake to go back to Thomas, but can you trust him?