College Basketball Picks For Saturday: Betting Value On Minnesota -2.5
Coleman Crawley, host of the college basketball podcast Mimosas Til March, breaks down his NCAAB betting tips and college basketball picks for Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021.
Maybe college basketball Saturdays aren’t quite comparable to Christmas morning, that would probably be the opening weekend of the March Madness, but whatever your second favorite holiday is, that’s what each Saturday is like for college basketball fanatics, and particularly, college basketball bettors. Of course Saturdays in the fall of college football are fantastic, but even that sport doesn’t produce the sports betting opportunities that you can find while perusing college basketball lines. Over one hundred games tipping off and concluding over the course of eleven hours. Are you kidding me? Surely we can find five games where we feel oddsmakers have mispriced some lines and end up profitable on the day. Let me help you in that venture.
CBB Betting Tips: How To Bet On Favorites
Last week on Wednesday the 17th I wrote my introductory college basketball betting article for Rotogrinders where I explained my betting process of consistently picking not just the favorites, but the Favorite Favorites. If you’d like you could go back and read in detail the explanation of why this strategy has been profitable in the past, and should be going forward. However, to make a long story short, oddsmakers can’t quite set the lines high enough for the elite teams in each conference, and can’t quite set the bar low enough for the worst teams in some of the conferences across the nation, especially mid-majors. Not only do the top teams and bottom teams in each conference finish that way in the conference standings, but if you look at their against-the-spread win percentage in conference play, you’ll see a similar trend. Riding the top teams and fading the bottom will minimize your risk and give yourself a legitimate shot of ending up in the black on the season and thanking sportsbooks for the additional income they’ve given in your bank account. I am 23-14 (62.2%) on the week using this strategy, and you can find these picks all documented and time-stamped on my Twitter, @SharpshotSelect. Let’s look at five games today where this strategy should pay off.
Saturday College Basketball Betting Picks
Michigan Wolverines -7.5 at Indiana Hoosiers
Contrary to popular belief, defense does not win championships. Offense sure as Hell doesn’t. It’s not the best point guard in the country or the top backcourt that is a guarantee to cut down the nets in early April. It isn’t the top frontcourt either. Balance, balance is what wins national championships. This isn’t the NBA where it’s the team that can be the best on 4 out of 7 nights and can afford inconsistent slip ups. It’s not the team that has the best A+ game that will bring home the title, if that was the case Duke and Zion would’ve won our most recent national championship and probably by double figures in ’19. I say all this to say, Michigan is the most balanced team in the country. According to Kenpom metrics, Michigan is 5th in the country in offensive efficiency, and 6th in defensive efficiency. Not even a three week COVID pause can shut this team down. Since then in the last four games they’ve won Wisconsin, Ohio State, and beat Iowa by over 20 at home. Now they have to go to Freedom Hall and take on Indiana. If this was 1981 or 1987, that might be a terrifying proposition. But this is 2021, Indiana is 1 game above .500, and second to last in the conference against the spread in conference play at 6-9-1. Meanwhile Michigan not only leads the conference standings, but are 10-3 ATS in conference play as well. Give me Juwan Howard’s squad -7.5 @ Indiana today.
CBB Pick: [Bet Michigan -7.5 at BetMGM]
Note: College basketball odds are subject to change. The pick above is accurate at the time this article was published. Use our odds tool to find updated lines and the best sportsbook for your betting picks.
Mercer -5 at Western Carolina
Diving into my favorite small major conference with more parody than any conference in the country, the SOCON. This is a ten team league where 8 of the top 10 can beat each other on any given night. Fortunately for us, Western Carolina does not fall into that top 8. Not only does Western Carolina sit 9th out of 10 teams in the conference standings at 3-13, but their ATS record very closely resembles than same success rate at 3-12-1. Hopefully you aren’t late to the train and have had some success picking against them throughout the season, but if not, better late than never. Now Western Carolina is coming off a massive win over UNC Greensboro, the previous top team in the conference standings. But don’t let that fool you. Before that performance in their previous seven games they were 0-6-1 ATS. I don’t anticipate lightning striking in a bottle twice, and that’s why I have confidence in Mercer to cover the five points in this one.
CBB Pick: [Bet Mercer -5 at PointsBet]
Alabama -5.5 at Mississippi St.
It’s no secret Alabama has been the best team in the SEC. However, they play a very volatile style of basketball similar to the Rockets when previously coached by Mike D’Antoni, where they believe a mid-range attempt is a bad shot. It’s either points in the paint, at the free throw line, or behind the arc for the Crimson Tide behind Coach Nate Oats. This leaves Alabama susceptible to some head scratching performances due to their reliance on shots from the perimeter. In their last two outings they were 10-39 (25.6%) from three against Vanderbilt and only beat them by 4 at home. Then they were 11-33 (33.3%) from behind the arc at Arkansas and lost by 15. This team shoots the three ball at a 36% clip, and I don’t expect a third consecutive night where they fall below their average. The game before Vanderbilt, a 115 point performance in a 33 point win over Georgia where they connected on 18 of 30 threes (60%). I’m not saying you should expect that, but I believe the Crimson Tide will cover the 6 coming off the loss, @ the Bulldogs in Starkville today.
CBB Pick: [Bet Bama -5.5 at BetMGM]
Minnesota -2.5 at Nebraska
Here we have a Richard Pitino-coached team that has been awful on the road this season at 0-8. If you’ve followed the Gophers at all in recent years, you’d know this isn’t an anomaly. For whatever reason Coach Pitino has his team looking like the Monstars from Space Jam at home, but the Looney Tunes before they recruited Michael Jordan when playing on the road. So why in the world would I have any confidence to take Minnesota when playing outside their state? Because I promise you if Coach Pitino got to play this Nebraska team every team they stepped outside of Williams Arena for a contest, his road record would be much improved. This is a Nebraska team that is 1-14 in conference play. Is Minnesota an elite Big 10 team? No. But I love that the Gophers are only asked to win by 1 possession against a team with a win percentage in conference play in the single digits at 7.1%. Give me Minnesota -2.5.
CBB Pick: [Bet Minnesota -2.5 at BetMGM]
Jackson St. -22 vs. Mississippi Valley St.
I can probably guess what you’re thinking as you read this prediction. Man, is this guy spending his free time watching a ton of SWAC hoops? Absolutely not. To be completely honest with you I haven’t watched a single second of Jackson St. all year. What I do believe to know is that Mississippi Valley St. is the worst team in college basketball. When these two conference foes met in late January, Jackson St. won 106-56. The most they’ve won any other game against a division 1 opponent was by 16, to give you a little insight on how bad MVSU is. Jackson St. is 5-2 ATS in conference play, and MVSU is 4-8. This is an example of Vegas not being able to set the lines quite high enough and catch up to how atrociously bad Mississippi Valley St. is. 22 is a lot of points, but not against MVSU, give me Jackson St. -22.
CBB Pick: [Bet Jackson State -22 at BetMGM]
Image Credit: Imagn