College Football Baker's Dozen - Week 5
College Football Baker’s Dozen – Week 5
Week 5 is here and we now can be sure we know what we know! All the teams have played several games, and we are now just about done with the big schools playing patsies. This week it appears that the FD and DK have tightened up the cap a bit, so we’ll have to look for some value, though I do think there are some great plays this week. As a public service announcement, be aware that if you are playing the late slate on DraftKings, you are playing for second place unless your name is db730. Dan Back, aka db730, has pretty much put that slate on lock the last few weeks, and has made it pretty much impossible to win unless you can score about 350 DK points.
Here are the 13 things I am looking forward to this week!
1. Reggie Bonnafon (LOU) – The news just came out that Wil Gardner will miss the game vs. Wake Forest. Bonnafon is min salary across the industry and should be the #1 value play at QB this week. Vegas has Louisville scoring around 30 points, and Petrino likes to throw the ball and then throw it some more. I think the floor this week is 250 yards and two TDs.
2. Kansas State – K-State should have no problem moving the ball on the ground this week. The only problem is figuring out if the yards and TDs are going to come from the QB or RB positions. Jake Waters runs a lot and KSU’s top red zone RB is Charles Jones. One of them should get two TDs. I’m thinking the coaches may want to limit the hits on Waters, so the RBs may have their best week of the season. I also think Tyler Lockett may have a huge game — his price is very low on DK at $5800 and he has the potential to put up 35 fantasy points.
3. Wisconsin Rushing Attack – The Badgers should get 300-400 yards rushing again this week vs. USF, so Gordon, Clement and McEvoy are all in play. I would not be surprised if they all put up 100 yards rushing and have six rushing TDs between the three of them. This could be the first time I could every recommend three running threats on the same team in the same week.
4. James Conner (PITT) – This is becoming pretty easy, Conner is going to carry the ball 35 times in every game, so you can pretty much guarantee 100 yards and one TD, which would be his floor. His price may be high, but he is about as sure a thing out there.
5. CJ Brown, Steffon Diggs, Nate Sudfeld and Tevin Coleman – Fire up the Terps and Hoosiers this week, as there will not be much defense played. Points will come early and often, and expect a bunch of big plays because neither of these teams have shown much interest in playing D. Both teams should score 30+, so don’t be afraid to load up on these two teams.
6. Colorado and Cal – This is another high game between two high scoring teams who don’t play defense. I would prefer to target the Colorado players this week because they don’t spread the ball around as much as Cal. My top four players for this game are Liufau, Spruce, Fields and Goff.
7. Kenny Hill (TAM) – Outside of Melvin Gordon and James Conner, I think Kenny Hill is the other player in daily CFB who is a lock for 35 fantasy points this week. This will be only his second game where he plays all four quarters and this may be the lowest we may see his salary for the rest of the season. Only playing three or fewer quarters these last three games has helped his price drop quite a bit. I think he is a great play in both cash and GPP contests.
8. Leon Allen (WKU) – Just look at the box score and see what Rutgers did to Navy last week on the ground – 284 yards and four TDs. And that was with their #1 RB getting injured after only seven carries! WKU may like to chuck the ball around, but they also like to give Allen 25 carries a game, and he gets 90+ % of the work at RB. As an extra bonus he catches 4-to-5 passes a game. I think his floor this week is 150 yards and one TD, with a huge ceiling.
9. Duke Johnson (The U) – Duke Johnson may have his first big game this season vs. Duke. Duke has played an absolutely garbage schedule this year and I think they get beat pretty handily by Miami this week behind the running of Johnson. Johnson missed last year’s contest with Duke due to injury, but in 2012 he went for 176 yards and three TDs. His salary is very tasty on DK at only $5600.
10. Malcolm Brown (UT) – This is more of a GPP play. I wouldn’t recommend Brown for a 50/50 or cash. Kansas is horrific and UT should have no problem running the ball against the Jayhawks. Brown could go for 100 yards and three TDs, but could just as easily go for 50 yards and zero TDs.
11. Ameer Abdullah (NEB) – The theme of really good RBs going against really bad defenses continues with Abdullah against Illinois. Last year in this matchup Ameer went for 225 and two TDs. It would not be a stretch to see him match that again this week.
12. Travis Wilson (UTAH) – After last weeks tough game at Michigan where Wilson nearly broke his face and neck, he gets a much softer defense this week. The Utah offense runs completely through Wilson, so look for him to get scores both through the air and on the ground. I also like Utah’s top two WRs, Anderson and Scott, this week.
13. Centurias Donald (ULM) – This is a FanDuel only play. Donald is my favorite cheap play of the day at only $5700. Troy has trouble stopping the run, and Donald gets all of ULM’s carries. He’s already had a three TD game this year and last season vs. Troy he went for 114 and a TD. I like that ULM is coming of a bye and think Donald has a monster game.