College Football Betting Picks: Week 6
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College Football Picks Week 6 – Contrarian Betting Review
It’s time to look at college football picks for Week 6 and find some matchups that present contrarian value. If you are new to using a contrarian approach for sports betting then give yourself a primer by reviewing our first edition posted 2 weeks ago:
As a refresher, the three steps we use for choosing contrarian sides to play are:
1. The public is heavy on one side of the game
2. The betting volume is high
3. The line stays at or reverses from the opening number (a good indicator of sharp money)
Looking at no. 3; you will need to continue to monitor line movement for a game you are interested in playing. Just because a line has exhibited reverse line movement doesn’t always mean it will always stay below the opening number. The public can be responsible for inflating the number back up after sharp money has hit. We always need to be paying attention to line movement to get the best number possible.
Now let’s get to our contrarian college football picks for Week 6.
College Football Picks Week 6 – Contrarian Plays for Friday
UCF -3.5 vs. Cincinnati (8:00 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: UCF -4 at William Hill
Central Florida comes into this matchup with nearly 70% of the public backing them. UCF has won 19 consecutive conference games and thrashed Cincinnati in Orlando 38-13 last season. Cincinnati is coming into this game looking solid shutting out Marshall for 3 quarters of play while cruising to a 52-14 victory. The spread opened at UCF -4 and climbed up to -4.5 on Monday. Since then, sharp money has bet the line down to -3.5 where it currently sits. This is an excellent spot in a prime time Friday night game to take the underdog. The casual bettor will see the #18 ranking next to UCF’s name and figure it will be an easy win against an unranked opponent. Side with the smart money and take Cincinnati.
The College Football Pick: Cincinnati +4 (There is still Cincy +4 available if you shop around)
College Football Picks Week 6 – Contrarian Plays for Saturday
Maryland -13 vs. Rutgers (12:00 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: Maryland -13 at William Hill
Rutgers comes into this game with the distinct honor of being the first FBS team to fire its head coach. They hold a 1-3 record overall as well as being 1-3 ATS. Maryland is slightly better for the year holding a 2-2 record this season and a 2-2 record ATS. Oddsmakers installed Maryland as a 13-point favorite. A whopping 87% of tickets are coming in on Maryland, and initially, this moved the line up to 13.5. Since then sharp money has moved the line down a full point to 12.5. The line now sits back at the opening 13. I will be joining the 13% backing Rutgers in this game.
The College Football Pick: Rutgers +13
Arkansas State -6.5 vs. Georgia State (3:30 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: Arkansas State -7.5 at William Hill
Arkansas State comes into this matchup 3-2 on the season, while Georgia State sits at 2-2 for the year. Both teams have been experiencing defensive issues: Arkansas State is the seventh-worst team in yards allowed per game, while Georgia State has given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns on the year. The game itself might not be pretty, but there is value to be found in the spread. Arkansas State has 78% of the public backing them, yet the line has dropped a full point down to 6.5. You can shop around and still find 7 available, and that is the number I would recommend taking.
The College Football Pick: Arkansas State +7
Auburn -2.5 vs. Florida (3:30 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: Auburn -2.5 at William Hill
It’s always nice to get a high profile game that falls into being a contrarian play, and we get that luxury here with undefeated Auburn traveling to The Swamp to take on Florida. The lookahead line to this game was Florida -3 last week, but here we see Auburn favored by 2.5 this week. This is simply an overreaction from the market on Auburn, which has 77% of the public backing them. Auburn could have easily lost their opener against Oregon, and their victories over Mississippi State and Texas A&M don’t look as impressive now. Mississippi State lost to an average Kansas State at home, and Texas A&M came down to the wire against Arkansas, a team that had a futures win total set at 5.5 games. The line still sits at Auburn -2.5, even though 77% of the public is backing them. I have this game as a pick’em and will gladly take the points with a solid Florida team at home.
The College Football Pick: Florida +2.5
Tulsa at SMU -13 (7:30 p.m.)
Opened: SMU -13 at William Hill
Last week I was burnt taking the points against SMU. The Pony Express cruised to a 48-21 win over USF. I am going to take the road dog again this week as Tulsa travels to Dallas. Tulsa comes into this game with only 28% of betting tickets backing them, yet the line has remained static at 13. I have this line at SMU -10 and will be taking a Tulsa team that only has losses against Michigan State and Oklahoma State.
The College Football Pick: Tulsa +13
Liberty -4 vs. New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: Liberty -6.5 at William Hill
In week 5, I went against Liberty, and if you shopped for the best line before kick-off, then you were rewarded by getting New Mexico +7.5 and covering by the hook. This week Liberty takes on New Mexico State. Liberty opened as 6.5 point favorites but has seen the line dwindle to 4 despite 70% of betting tickets backing them. This situation is an indicator of sharp money backing New Mexico State at home. Follow the sharps and take New Mexico.
The College Football Pick: New Mexico State +4
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images