College Football Bowl Game Odds and Picks
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It’s time to examine Week 1 of the college football bowl season and find some matchups that present contrarian value. If you are new to using a contrarian approach for sports betting then give yourself a primer by reviewing our first edition posted 11 weeks ago.
As a refresher, the three steps we use for choosing contrarian sides to play are:
1. The public is heavy on one side of the game
2. The betting volume is high
3. The line shows instances of reversing against the public side (a good indicator of sharp money)
Looking at no. 3; you will need to continue to monitor line movement for a game you are interested in playing. Just because a line has exhibited reverse line movement doesn’t always mean it will always stay below the opening number. The public can be responsible for inflating the number back up after sharp money has hit. There can also be a buyback from sharps if the number drops low enough to take the other side. We always need to pay attention to line movement to get the best number possible.
The college bowl season is an excellent opportunity for contrarian bettors to add some units to their bankroll. Looking back at the past 15 years, if you were to fade teams receiving 60% or more of spread-betting tickets, then you would be up over 27 units and clipping nearly 58%. It is never a good strategy to blindly bet every game that falls into this category due to the high risk involved. However, we can still use this knowledge along with monitoring line movement to find contrarian sides that will offer value this postseason.
Week 1 College Football Bowl Picks
Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo vs. Charlotte (Dec. 20, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Both Buffalo and Charlotte feature an offense built for rushing. The Bulls have a solid rushing attack built around Jaret Patterson, who has rushed for over 1,500 yards this season. Charlotte has proven they can run the ball effectively as well, ranking 24th in the nation on the ground. The difference in this game should come down to Charlotte’s inability to stop the run. The 49ers rank 97th in rushing defense. 77% of the public is backing Buffalo, and the line has moved from 4.5 to 6.5. There have been short instances when the line reached 7 but then was quickly bet back down to 6.5. High winds are predicted in Nassau, and as a result, the total for this game has come down from the opening number of 58 to 51.5. With a low total and a game that should feature few passing attempts, a touchdown is just too many points to spot Charlotte. I feel that Buffalo was the correct play at the opening number, but in these conditions, I will join the smart money that has consistently hit the 49ers if the line reaches 7 again.
The play: Charlotte at +7 or better
New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State (Dec. 21, 2:00 p.m. ET)
After winning one game last season, Central Michigan now finds itself playing in a bowl game this year. That is quite the accomplishment even if there are nearly 40 bowl games. The Chippewas will be facing a solid San Diego State team that has held opponents to an average of fewer than 13 points per game this season. The Aztecs rank 53rd in the nation against the pass and rely on a heavy rushing attack to keep opposing offenses off the field. This approach has worked against teams like San Jose State, who feature a strong passing game and struggle at stopping the run. However, Central Michigan ranks 20th in the nation in rush defense and should cause problems for the Aztec’s non-existent passing game. 68% of the public is backing San Diego State, yet the line has moved from the opening number of -4.5 down to -3.5. I feel this game is closer to a coin flip and will be taking the side receiving the points.
The play: Central Michigan +3.5
Boca Raton Bowl
Southern Methodist vs. Florida Atlantic (Dec. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET)
(After the writing of this article it was announced that four FAU players have been suspended. FAU is no longer recommended.)
Yes, the main talking point by the media for this game has been Lane Kiffin’s departure for Ole Miss and the effect it will have on FAU. The thing is sharps don’t seem to care. The line opened at SMU -3.5 and has reversed on a few occasions to 3 before being pushed back to 3.5. The Mustangs rank 102nd in the nation in total defense, while Florida Atlantic ranks 48th. SMU’s offense is potent coming in at 9th in the nation, but the Owls should have no issue scoring when they have the ball. The oddsmakers produced this line with the Lane Kiffin departure already baked in. It hasn’t budged despite nearly 80% of the public favoring the Mustangs. Side with the smart money and take FAU.
The play: Florida Atlantic +3.5 (no longer a pick due to the late announcement of suspensions)
College Football Bowl Picks
- Charlotte +7 (or better)
- Central Michigan +3.5
- Florida Atlantic +3.5 (no longer a pick due to the late announcement of suspensions)
For more general betting tips, check out our college football picks betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images