College Football Coach Firing Odds: Who Will Be the Next to Go?
The 2025 college coach firing season is upon us. Already, UCLA coach DeShaun Foster and Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry have been let go after disappointing starts to the season. On average, each year, 16 college football coaches are fired.
It has pundits and fans alike asking, “Who is next?” Other fans are begging for their team’s underperforming coach to be canned early in the season. RotoGrinders evaluated SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, and Independent conference football teams to find the odds of each college football coach being fired. These odds take into consideration team performance, program expectations, and known pressures, including fan sentiment.
Unsurprisingly, Billy Napier tops the list with a 4/1 chance of being fired. The Gator’s coach heard “Fire Billy” chants from his fans after the painful loss to LSU. It will take a steep $19.38 million buyout for Florida to replace Napier. The odds say the college may be willing to take the hit.
Similarly, odds aren’t looking encouraging for Marcus Freeman. While Freeman is believed to have six more years on his contract, Fighting Irish fans are furious about the team’s start to the season. Mike Gundy faces odds that match Freeman’s bleak ones.
College Football Coaches Most Likely To Be Fired
| Coach | Team | Conference | Fraction | American Odds | Implied Probability |
| Billy Napier | Florida | SEC | 4/1 | +400 | 20.0% |
| Marcus Freeman | Notre Dame | Independent | 6/1 | +600 | 14.3% |
| Mike Gundy | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6/1 | +600 | 14.3% |
| Dabo Swinney | Clemson | ACC | 10/1 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Justin Wilcox | California | ACC | 10/1 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Sam Pittman | Arkansas | SEC | 10/1 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | ACC | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Fran Brown | Syracuse | ACC | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Rich Rodriguez | West Virginia | Big 12 | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Jeff Lebby | Mississippi State | SEC | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.7% |
Odds above are for entertainment purposes only. These do not reflect odds that may be available on betting apps.
If you see these coaches sweating on the sidelines Saturday, it’s not the weather they are feeling; it’s their performance. Undeniably, it hasn’t been a promising start for these coaches.
Yet, sometimes teams and players turn around and surprise you. Sleeper picks exist for a reason; initial performance does not always spell out the season’s performance. If you’re interested in spicing up your fantasy college football team with undervalued players, consider checking out the Underdog promo code and Sleeper promo code when getting started.
Ultimately, on an individual level, there is a high chance many of these coaches will not be fired, and even poor-performing coaches often scrape by to the end of the season. However, collectively as a group, this is the bunch most likely to get dismissed.
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