College Football DFS Late Slate Breakdown: Week 1
A top-ranked college football DFS player going back to the Daily Joust and DraftStreet days, Andy Smith (a25smith) is here to walk you through the late Draftkings slate with a game-by-game preview.
We get our first all-day Saturday of college football, so I’m ready to settle in for an entire day of college football and DFS. I’ll be breaking down the late slate on DK. Right of the bat, it’s Week 1, and we don’t have depth charts for all of the teams discussed below. Moreover, there is a big injury to watch in the UTSA / UH game. So this is a slate where things can definitely change. Be sure to drop by the discord, as we’ll be in there monitoring the news, talking strategy, and discussing the games on TV.
College Football DFS: Top DraftKings Picks for the Week 1 Late Slate
Southeast Missouri State at Kansas State (no line)
Some of these breakdowns get long, so I’ll look to save time where I can. I’ll just pass on an over-matched FCS team in Southeast Missouri State. They return their QB, RB, and top WR, and their RB had a monster year last season, with 1600 yards and 21 TDs, but that damage came against FCS teams. They lost 42-10 to Iowa State last year, and no one even approached a stat line that would play in GPPs. They should be likewise over-matched here.
On the KSU side, they typically aren’t the most exciting DFS team, as they have spread around production in the passing game while being a more run-heavy team. Will Howard steps in for Adrian Martinez at QB, and we saw plenty of Howard last year at QB with Martinez banged up. He threw for 294 and 296 passing yards in two of his games, but otherwise was below 225 passing yards in his other five games that he saw decent action in. He’s a guy who was typically in the mid-$6,000 range last year, so at $9,100 on DK I just don’t see the upside. The KSU starting WRs are listed as Brooks, Garcia, and Johnson, they have an “OR” at TE, and their FB, Sinnot, will sometimes get into the passing game mix. Brooks is the top returner with 587 receiving yards, but no one had over five (5) receiving TDs last year in this offense. This has not been a high-upside passing offense.
The best bet here would be the running game with Deuce Vaughn off to the NFL. However, we do get the dreaded “OR” at RB between Giddens and Ward, so there is some uncertainty. Given this offense, I think both are viable though, with Giddens the safer option, as he’s been in the system longer, while Ward is a transfer from FSU, so he maybe starts off the year a little behind. If it’s not a true split, there is definitely 100 yard and 2 TD upside here, so both will be in my player pool, but I’ll limit my lineups to a max of 1 KSU RB. Given Giddens’ experience in the system, I’d give him the edge in Week 1 overall.
UTSA at UH (+1.5, 59.5)
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