College Football DFS Late Slate Breakdown: Week 2
A top-ranked college football DFS player going back to the Daily Joust and DraftStreet days, Andy Smith (a25smith) is here to walk you through the late Draftkings slate with a game-by-game preview.
We’re back for Week 2 of the Draftkings Late Slate breakdown. I received a few messages in Discord voting for the game-by-game breakdown, so we’ll stick with that for at least one more week. Overall, the first week was solid with the exception of the Juice Wells landmine, which I did not avoid despite monitoring the South Carolina message boards. Sometimes that’s the way it goes in CFB with injuries. I’ll still be monitoring news for this slate and will be in Discord prior to lock, so be sure to jump in there to talk some football and be up to date on injury information prior to slate lock.
College Football DFS: Top DraftKings Picks for the Week 2 Late Slate
Texas at Alabama (-7, 53.5)
This is one of those games that profiles as a great game to sit down and watch (and definitely root against both teams), but for DFS purposes, I definitely prefer other games to target, as these teams have plenty of defensive talent.
This is a really strong QB slate with some dual-threat options, so I’ll easily pass on Ewers, who doesn’t offer much dual-threat ability in a really tough matchup. It sounds like Texas will get Baxter back at RB after he exited with an injury against Rice, so we could be looking at a split at RB against what is typically a very strong Alabama run defense.
Ja’Tavion Sanders always seems to pop as a value option, as he’s still cheap at $3,700, but he also always seems to be very popular. In a tougher matchup, I wouldn’t think he’d be popular, so he’s okay to keep in the player pool, but I’d prefer to get up into the $4,500 range where there are some WRs in easier matchups that had big volume in Week 1. If Worthy and Ewers can ever get their connection down, he’ll regain his freshman year form, but it seems Ewers always either overthrows him or Worthy drops it. He did have 10 targets last week and was getting open against this Alabama defense last year, so I’ll have a few shares in GPPs.
On the Alabama side, they get a Texas defense that was solid against the run, allowing 3.5 YPC but was a little more lenient against the pass, allowing 242.7 passing YPG. Jalen Milroe is expensive at $9,200, so I do prefer some of the other QBs in easier matchups and in games with higher totals. However, Milroe is currently projecting at around 5% ownership as of Friday night. If that ownership stands, then I don’t mind throwing him in 10% to 15% to get above the field. He is going to run a lot, so there is always a ceiling with him. He only had 7 carries last week, but I think Alabama was saving him for this one, so I’m expecting him to use his legs more (he had 17 carries in his 1 start last year against A&M).
At RB, it was a split in the opener, as McClellan played 19 snaps and Roydell Williams played 20 snaps. That’s a bad sign against a Texas run defense that was rock solid last year. I personally think McClellan is the better talent, so I’ll have a few shares in GPPs, hoping that split was just due to blowout, but it’s nothing I’d go crazy with. I would limit lineups to 1 of Milroe or McClellan in GPPs, as I do think there is negative correlation between those 2.
At WR, Milroe is still a work in progress as a passer, so he’s not someone you have to stack, and I’d limit myself to just 1 receiver if you are stacking. Last year, Alabama used a pretty heavy rotation at WR, but in Week 1, Burton (40 snaps) and Bond (39 snaps) were way ahead of everyone else, as no other WR topped 20 snaps. Milroe only played 45 snaps, so those are good snaps for Burton and Bond. That is where I would look to get my exposure.
UCF at Boise State (+3.5, 58.5)
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