College Football DFS Late Slate Breakdown: Week 3
A top-ranked college football DFS player going back to the Daily Joust and DraftStreet days, Andy Smith (a25smith) is here to walk you through the late Draftkings slate with a game-by-game preview.
We’re back for Week 3 of the Draftkings Late Slate breakdown with another game-by-game breakdown. Last week was pretty similar to Week 1, as there were some nice hits, but the big chalk of the week failed, as Braelon Allen threw up an absolute dude. This week sets up as a fun slate, as there are six solid competitive games, and there a ton of options at QB. RB is weaker, so we are likely to see some chalk with Judkins, but overall we get 6 games between power conference teams, so it’s a great slate to finish the day.
College Football DFS: Top DraftKings Picks for the Week 3 Late Slate
Tennessee at Florida (+6.5, 58.5)
This is a fun night slate, and we get started with what should be a fun one in the Swamp. Starting at QB, it hasn’t looked pretty, but from a fantasy perspective Joe Milton has gotten there this year due to 3 rushing TDs. He now has 4 starts under his belt for the Vols, and he topped out at 251 passing yards last year against Clemson and hasn’t topped 230 passing yards this year, which is not ideal. However, he’s still super affordable, getting goal line rushing opportunities in a very fantasy-friendly offense, so he’s in my GPP player pool. Florida is a defense that is middle of the pack where you aren’t necessarily targeting them, but you also aren’t scared to fire up some plays. Given his inefficient passing as well as his running ability, he is someone who doesn’t need to be stacked, and I’d limit him to 1 pass catcher until he proves otherwise.
In terms of his pass catchers, the good news is that Tennessee is not rotating at WR, so White, McCoy, and Keyton are playing a ton of snaps. The bad news is that Joe Milton has been a big downgrade from Hendon Hooker so far, and an alpha hasn’t emerged at WR yet, as the targets break down as Squirrel (15), McCoy (13), and Keyton (11). The prop sites all have these guys within 5 receiving yards of each other, and our projections all have them separated by 2-ish points, so picking which one to target is tough. My gut says to go with the slight target edge of Squirrel, as he’s also operating out of the slot where Hyatt was terrific last year. Projected ownership is not up yet at the time I’m writing this, but he’s also the cheapest, so I’d just say for GPPs, watch ownership here, as the big price difference could lead to a big ownership gap between these three that so far hasn’t been warranted.
This Tennessee offense is tough right now, but at RB, it’s another split, as Wright is the starter, but Small will play almost as much, and then Sampson will mix in to vulture some TDs (see Week 1). I will note that Sampson’s snaps fell off last game, and this is a tough road test, so hopefully the snaps consolidate on Wright and Small. Also, Wright has been electric so far, averaging 9.3 YPC- it’s just all the TDs have gone to Milton and Sampson. I’ll take a few shots with Wright in GPPs as the running back position beyond Judkins is tough on this slate, and Tennessee did pile up 227 rushing yards in this matchup last year.
On the Florida side, the only position I’m looking at is WR, as Florida continues to split at RB with Montrell Johnson, Jr. and Etienne, so it’s tough to nail down whom to target, and I think there are a few more RB spots with more certainty. The strength of this Tennessee defense was also their run defense last year, while their pass defense was awful last year (128th in passing yards allowed per game). We don’t know if that will still be the case this year, as they’ve faced two horrible offenses in UVA and Austin Peay, but for now, I’m still attacking their secondary. Pearsall has been the clear alpha for Florida so far with 13 targets against Utah, and he then led them with 7 targets despite a blowout against McNeese State. He’s viable in all formats.
Eugene Wilson and Caleb Douglas are the other WR starters for Florida, but I don’t love their price points, as pricing is soft, so there are just better plays. I’m somewhat intrigued by Wilson, as he’s forced his way into the starting lineup as a freshman.
NIU at Nebraska (-10.5, 42.5)
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