College Football DFS Late Slate Breakdown: Week 5
A top-ranked college football DFS player going back to the Daily Joust and DraftStreet days, Andy Smith (a25smith) is here to walk you through the late Draftkings slate with a game-by-game preview.
We’re back for Week 5 of the DK Late Slate. Looking back at last week, the trend of chalk getting crushed continued as Lincoln Victor was injured early in the game as a holder for a PAT. It’s hard to make that up, and in Week 1, we saw Juice Wells dress but then play sparingly. It’s been a tough run for chalk WR in the night slate. Xavier Legette looks like the chalk at WR this week, so we’ll see if can avoid the injury bug in the late slate for once. In terms of the actual slate itself, it’s pretty ugly as we get two games with totals under 40, which is rare in CFB. For the GPP Bros, there will be leverage opportunities as a lot of ownership will flock to the Tennessee/South Carolina game. With that being said, let’s get to the breakdown.
College Football DFS: Top DraftKings Picks for the Week 5 Late Slate
Iowa State at Oklahoma (-19.5, 48.5)
We get things started with the Cyclones traveling to Norman as almost 3 TD underdogs and a team total of around just 2 TDs. Iowa State finally got things going last week offensively against Oklahoma State as Rocco Becht threw for 348 yards. However, the rest of their season has been ugly offensively, including two dismal offensive performances against Ohio and Iowa. I’ll pass on Becht here as I think last week is probably just a byproduct of Oklahoma State being bad, so he’ll have to prove it to me against a solid OU defense. I’m also not interested in the Iowa State RBs here as the ISU running game has not been good, and they are big underdogs.
The only spot I’d consider here would be the ISU WRs, with Jaylin Noel as the primary target. Noel operates out of the slot, and continues to pace ISU in snaps and every receiving stat. At just $4,800 on DK, he looks like one of the better WR values on the slate but will likely carry solid ownership. Jayden Higgins is WR2 for ISU, so he’d be the direct pivot if you’re looking to get different in large field tournaments. Daniel Jackson has been trending up for ISU, but I think he’s third in line here at WR, at best, for a team with a low team total.
OU checks in with a team total approaching 35 points, which is right there alongside Tennessee for highest on the slate. Dillon Gabriel has been solid this year with at least 25 DK points in every game. The drawback with him is his high price tag as the highest priced QB on the slate, and the fact that this game environment doesn’t look nearly as appetizing as the Tennessee/South Carolina game. I definitely have concerns that Iowa State can score enough to keep OU passing into the 4th quarter. Also, the Red River shootout is next week so this is both a look ahead spot, as well as a spot where OU could look to keep him healthy (he missed last year’s game) by running the ball in the 4th quarter if they are comfortably ahead. Given the price and game environment, I don’t think he’s a cash game option, but I do think ownership will heavily tilt towards the QBs in the Tennessee/South Carolina game, as well as Chandler Morris. Based on that, I do think he’s in play in large field GPPs at what could be lower ownership.
At WR, the top target has been Andrel Anthony as he’s topped 18 DK points in three straight games and is still just $6,000. He’s viable in all formats and is one of the better WR options on the slate, although ownership will also be heavy. Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq are next in line at WR. Drake Stoops has 14 receptions over his last two games, but he’s a very low average depth of target play. For me, I think the large field GPP pivot here is Jaill Farooq. He’s the highest-priced WR on the slate, so very few people will go up in price from Anthony. However, unlike Stoops, Farooq does have some big play upside and has produced a 6/126/1 game already this year, so I think he’s viable in the big DK GPP at low ownership.
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