College Football DFS Late Slate Breakdown: Week 7
A top-ranked college football DFS player going back to the Daily Joust and DraftStreet days, Andy Smith (a25smith) is here to walk you through the late Draftkings slate with a game-by-game preview.
I’m getting this posted late Friday night, but the upside is that I was able to stay up and watch the ridiculous ending to the Stanford / Colorado game. The crazy ending Friday night should lead right into another great CFB slate. This late slate should be fun, as we get several quality games with big implications as well as some high-end QB options. Looking ahead to next week, I’ll note that I’ll be out, as I’m taking my six kids to Disney World (I know), but I’ll be back for Week 9, albeit likely playing in the 10 cent arcade games after Mickey and friends are done with my wallet.
College Football DFS: Top DraftKings Picks for the Week 7 Late Slate
Arizona at Washington State (-7.5, 57.5)
If you had asked me to predict this total at the beginning of year, I would have said mid-to-high 60s. It’s now sitting at just 57.5 and the total has dropped 2 points on Thursday alone. The biggest reason for this lower total based on preseason expectations is that both defenses (Arizona in particular) have been better than expected.
Starting on the Arizona side, it’s currently unclear who will be the starting QB. Their starter De Laura is apparently practicing some but still questionable. Washington State allows 271.5 passing yards per game (108th), so it’s a good spot for the passing game once we get word who is starting between De Laura or Fifita. Fifita was solid last week against USC, so I’m not projecting a huge drop off if it is Fifita.
There are also injury questions at RB. Michael Wiley is questionable for this one as well. As of Thursday night, the message boards appear to think Wiley will miss this one, but that’s not definitive. Jonah Coleman played around 75% of the snaps last week with Wiley out and had 26 touches, so his workload looks very secure if Wiley is out. On the downside, Washington State has been much better against the run, so it’s a worse matchup than last week against USC. However, he’s just $5,500, so if Wiley is confirmed out, then he’d merit strong consideration in GPPs as a pivot from Brooks and Diggs, who I’m guessing will be the chalk RBs.
At WR, Arizona has two great options in Cowing and McMillan. Cowing has double-digit targets in every Power Five game Arizona has played this year, while McMillan has double-digit targets in three of the four Power Five games they have played. Cowing is projecting as the second-highest raw points option at WR, but McMillan also looks very solid. I think both are firmly in play, and Cowing should garner quite a bit of ownership, so I do have some GPP interest in McMillan. If you’re looking to get weird, the TE McLachlan plays a ton of snaps as well, and Washington State has allowed a TD to a TE three times already this year. The problem is I was hoping he’d be under $4,000, and there are other options in his price range like Myles Price, Carlos Hernandez and Jacolby George.
Moving onto the Washington State side of things, they are a pass-happy team that has struggled to run the ball this year. Their QB Cameron Ward struggled last week, but he’s going to throw it 40 times, and he’s 220 pounds, so he also gets some red zone rushing TD opportunities. He’s projecting terrifically, so I have no issues with him, with the only downside being he’s going to be popular. I will say Arizona did slow down the potent USC passing game last week, so that’s the only potential worry. However, Arizona has also now lost two very close emotional games to USC and Washington in two straight weeks, so I wonder if they can get up for a third straight week.
In terms of the Washington State WRs, it sounds Lincoln Victor will miss another game, which leaves a ton of passing volume for Josh Kelly and Kyle Williams, and then also Carlos Hernandez as a third option. With Victor basically out the last two weeks, Kelly has 19 targets, and Williams has 18 targets with Hernandez chipping in for 13. DK priced up the LSU game as well as the ND / USC game, but they did not price up the WSU WRs, so they are premier targets on this slate.
Nakia Watson is projecting like a solid option, but I do have some concerns, as he hasn’t topped 11 carries or 50 rushing yards this year. Arizona has struggled against the run, so It’s a plus matchup, but you’re counting on Washington State finally putting an emphasis on the run game, which has yet to happen so far. If ownership comes in reasonably, then I don’t mind the play as a pivot from Ward, but it’s a spot where I’m monitoring ownership, as the run game has been very bad so far.
Auburn at LSU (-11.5, 60.5)
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