College Football Picks: Army vs. Navy
The college football regular season is over — well almost over. There’s still one regular season game left on the calendar. Let’s take a look at odds and college football picks for Army vs. Navy as the service academies make the trip to Philadelphia for their annual battle.
If you’ve looked into this game at all, then I’m probably not the first and I certainly won’t be the last tell you about a notable Over-Under trend in this matchup. That is, The under has hit in the last 13 Navy-Army games. More on that shortly. First let’s look at how both teams have fared during the 2019-20 season.
College Football Picks: Army vs. Navy
- Spread: Navy -10.5
- Point Total: 40
- Opened: Navy -9.5, O/U 44
- Time: 3 p.m. ET on CBS
59% of bets are on Navy and 47% on the Under as of Thursday afternoon, per VegasInsider.com.
Navy Midshipmen (9-2) -10.5
- Against-the-Spread Record: 8-3
- Over-Under Record: 7-4
Navy enters the big weekend as the No. 23 team in the nation thanks to a 9-2 record that includes wins against SMU and the University of Houston. Their two losses have come against No. 15 Memphis and No. 14 Notre Dame. They were blown out by the latter but held their own against Memphis, taking a 20-14 lead in the first half before giving up 21 one points in the final 30 minutes. Overall, the season has been more than a success for veteran coach Ken Niumatalolo and his Navy Midshipmen. Navy’s 2019 win total was set at 6 wins following a disappointing 10-loss season a year ago. While Navy still primarily runs an option-offense, they’ve added more passing with run-and-shoot schemes that had been absent from their playbook in recent years. The new addition has paid dividends.
Key Stats
- 39.3 points per game – The Midshipmen are averaging 12 points more in 2019 than they did in 2018.
- 6.6 yards per play – Up from 4.9 yards per play in 2018, Navy has the sixth-most efficient offense in the nation in 2019.
- 103.5 passing yards per game – Despite playing with the lead in most of their games, Navy is averaging 30 more passing yards per game than they did a year. While Malcolm Perry was the primary ball-carrier in 2018, at just five-foot-nine, he’s taken over as the primary passer his senior season.
Army Black Knights (5-7) +10.5
- Against-the-Spread Record: 5-7
- Over-Under Record: 5-6-1
Army’s season has been quite the opposite of Navy’s. Army is a disappointing 5-7, breaking their streak of three consecutive winning seasons and bowl appearances. In 2017, Army went 10-3 — their best season-long performance in over two decades. Head coach Jeff Monken and his Black Knights weren’t finished impressing. They one-upped their 10-win season, winning 11 games in 2018, including a 70-15 drumming of Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl (also their third consecutive bowl win). Despite their struggles over the past 12 games, Army’s recent rise has helped put Monken among the list of candidates for major coaching jobs at Missouri and Boston College. Most of Army’s struggles in 2019 have come as a result of a dipping defense. Army is allowing nearly a touchdown more per game than they did a season ago.
College Football Picks: Army vs. Navy
As mentioned earlier, the Under has dominated in this series, cashing 13 consecutive meetings. Many bettors will see that and auto-bet the Under this week, but I’m not sure that’s a good idea.
Part of the reason the Under has hit for 13 years and counting is that both service academies run an option offense. Not only is the game dominated by running plays, which means a running clock and fewer possessions, but the defenses are also used to practicing against said offenses. As a result, Navy’s and Army’s defenses are better prepared to stop the option unlike the majority of their opponents.
Oddsmakers were slow to connect the dots with this trend as they regularly posted point totals that were in the mid 50s. That’s the case no more as the point total has fallen each of the past four years.
Now we get a 40.5 point total, two points higher than what it closed at in 2018, in a matchup that features 1) one of the best Navy offenses we’ve seen in recent memory and 2) one of the worst Army defenses we’ve seen in recent memory. Most of the game will be on the ground, but Navy is willing to pass more than they have previously which should mitigate the advantage that the defense has historically had in this contest. Considering the total is down four points from where it opened, I’m more than happy to back the Over on Saturday.
Army-Navy College Football Pick: Over 40 points
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