College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 13
It’s time to examine the Week 13 college football betting board and find some matchups that present contrarian value. If you are new to using a contrarian approach for sports betting then give yourself a primer by reviewing our first edition posted 9 weeks ago.
As a refresher, the three steps we use for choosing contrarian sides to play are:
1. The public is heavy on one side of the game
2. The betting volume is high
3. The line stays at or reverses from the opening number (a good indicator of sharp money)
Looking at no. 3; you will need to continue to monitor line movement for a game you are interested in playing. Just because a line has exhibited reverse line movement doesn’t always mean it will always stay below the opening number. The public can be responsible for inflating the number back up after sharp money has hit. There can also be a buyback from sharps if the number drops low enough to take the other side. We always need to pay attention to line movement to get the best number possible.
Last Saturday was bad for sportsbooks and thus bad for contrarian bettors. The public scored big as the four most lopsided bet games of the day went 4-0, while last week’s plays went 0-5 ATS. On a positive note the number for each game played went 2-1-2 against the closing line. Now let’s move to week 13 and find some matchups that offer value.
College Football Picks Week 12
Nebraska vs. Maryland (12:00 p.m. Eastern)
Nebraska has had a year to forget. Their win total for the season was set at 8.5 games, and they will be lucky to reach 6. This week they travel to Maryland, who sit at 3-7 for the year. 86% of the public is backing Nebraska, but the line has reversed from 5 down to 4 a few times already this week, indicating smart money on the Terps. The media will be pumping this game as a “must-win” situation for Nebraska to keep their bowl hopes alive. Bettors might find this as a reason to play Nebraska, but don’t forget oddsmakers already have this situation factored into the line.
The College Football Pick: Maryland +5
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. Eastern)
Kansas State was flying high last month when they upset the Sooners in a thriller. Since then, the Wildcats have stumbled, losing their previous two games, with the latest defeat coming against 4-6 West Virginia. This week will not be any easier as they travel to Lubbock to take on the 4-6 Red Raiders. The line opened with Texas Tech favored by 1 point and has since moved up to 2.5, despite 73% of the public backing the Wildcats. Living in Big 12 country, I can tell you the one stadium that you do not want to draw a night game at is Texas Tech. Look for the tortillas to fly as Tech wins and covers their final home game of the season.
The College Football Pick: Texas Tech -2.5
Tennessee vs. Missouri (7:30 p.m. Eastern)
Missouri comes into this matchup having lost its last four games, while the Vols will look to continue their season turnaround having won their previous three. The Tigers rank 9th in the nation defensively and will be facing a Vols offense that is ranked 109th. Missouri’s offense didn’t show up against Georgia or Florida, but this is a much weaker Tennessee team they will be playing. The line opened at Missouri -4 and reached as high as -6.5 at some books before dipping back down. There is definite value to be had buying low on Missouri and fading the trendy Vols who are being backed by 74% of the public.
The College Football Pick: Missouri -3.5
Nevada vs. Fresno State (10:30 p.m. Eastern)
Fresno State 4-6 will look to get their season back on track against 6-4 Nevada. Fresno might have a losing record, but that is thanks in part to the harder schedule they played this season. The Bulldogs played Minnesota and USC earlier in the year and lost both games by a combined total of 11 points. Meanwhile, Nevada sits with the worst offensive ranking in the Mountain West and had only 93 total rushing yards in the last two games. Also, Fresno ranks 10th in the country in takeaways. It should be a long day on offense for Nevada, but still 72% are siding with the Wolfpack. Fresno State opened at -12.5 and have since been bet as high as -14 at some books.
The College Football Pick: Fresno State -13.5
San Diego State vs. Hawaii (11:00 p.m. Eastern)
Years ago, when the Western Athletic Conference still existed, my friends had an excellent phrase for playing the Hawaii home games. They called it “The late-night snack in the WAC.” Hawaii opened as 1-point favorites, have reached the key number of 3, despite only 16% of the public backing them. Follow the smart money and fade the public while enjoying your late-night snack in the Mountain West.
The College Football Pick: Hawaii: -2.5
My College Football Betting Card
- Maryland +5
- Texas Tech -2.5
- Missouri -3.5
- Fresno State -13.5
- Hawaii -2.5
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images