College Football Picks Week 7: Best Contrarian Bets
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It’s time to examine the week 7 college football betting board and find some matchups that present contrarian value. If you are new to using a contrarian approach for sports betting then give yourself a primer by reviewing our first edition posted four weeks ago.
As a refresher, the three steps we use for choosing contrarian sides to play are:
1. The public is heavy on one side of the game
2. The betting volume is high
3. The line stays at or reverses from the opening number (a good indicator of sharp money)
Looking at no. 3; you will need to continue to monitor line movement for a game you are interested in playing. Just because a line has exhibited reverse line movement doesn’t always mean it will always stay below the opening number. The public can be responsible for inflating the number back up after sharp money has hit. We always need to be paying attention to line movement to get the best number possible.
Now let’s look at our Week 7 contrarian college football picks.
College Football Picks Week 7 – Contrarian Plays for Friday
Virginia vs. Miami -2.5 (8:00 p.m. Eastern)
Virginia comes into this game ranked 20th in the nation with a defense ranked inside the top 25. They will be taking on a Miami team that is 2-3 on the season, and those 2 wins come against Central Michigan and Bethune Cookman. But wait it gets better, Miami will also be without starting quarterback Jarren Williams due to injury. Oddsmakers seem not to be bothered by this information and have installed Miami as 1 point favorite. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see 70% of the public backing Virginia in this game, but despite this, Miami has moved to a 2.5 point favorite. Miami’s backup quarterback, N’Kosi Perry is no slouch. He threw for 422 yards last week against Virginia Tech and should have success again this week against a Virginia secondary who is near the bottom of the ACC defending the deep ball. Side with the smart money and take Miami at home.
The College Football Pick: Miami -2.5 (I would play this up to -3)
College Football Picks Week 7 – Contrarian Plays for Saturday
Oklahoma -10.5 vs. Texas (12:00 p.m. Eastern – Neutral Site)
It’s a real treat having the opportunity to bet my favorite rivalry game of the season. Sure, there is Army vs Navy, Ohio State vs Michigan, and the Iron Bowl, but there is something about OU vs Texas playing at the Cotton Bowl during the State Fair. It just feels like this is when the College Football season truly begins. 68% of tickets are coming in for Texas. Despite this the line has moved from -9.5 up to -10.5, a clear indicator of smart money backing OU. I am wary of the Todd Herman as an underdog factor, but that didn’t stop me from backing LSU as a favorite against Texas earlier this season, and it won’t stop me from taking OU in this game.
The College Football Pick: OU -10.5
Maryland -3.5 vs. Purdue (12:00 p.m. Eastern)
Last week I backed Rutgers against Maryland and lost. This week I am back for more. We had a similar situation with SMU. Back in the week 5 article, I took USF +7.5 against SMU. SMU proceeded to steamroll USF, but this didn’t stop me from continuing to follow the sharp money by taking Tulsa against SMU the very next week. Tulsa nearly won the game in OT, and we were rewarded with a cover. So here we are this week with the public backing Maryland with 81% of the tickets. Despite this the line has moved down to -3.5. I will be following the sharp side and joining the 19% of tickets on Purdue.
The College Football Pick: Purdue +3.5
Georgia Tech vs. Duke -17 (12:30 p.m. Eastern)
There are games each week that won’t be fun to watch. Georgia Tech taking on Duke will be one of those games, but thankfully sports betting will make this game fun for us. Duke is 3-2 on the year and 3-2 ATS, while Georgia Tech is 1-4 on the year and 0-5 ATS. Duke is currently receiving 67% of betting tickets, but the line has reversed from 18.5 down to 17. Despite Tech being 0-5 ATS, there is smart money that still has faith in them. I feel the number for this game should be around 16 and will be taking Georgia Tech at +17 or better. Hopefully this will be the game where Georgia Tech can get a win against the spread.
The College Football Pick: Georgia Tech +17 (I wouldn’t play Tech below 17)
BYU -5 vs. USF (3:30 p.m. Eastern)
Opened: BYU -4.5 at William Hill
Early public betting inflated this line up to 7 at some sportsbooks, and the sharps quickly pounced on the key number and pushed it all the down to 5 where it currently sits. South Florida is the sharp side in this game, but it seems that the sharp money reacted once the line reached the key numbers of 7 and 6. As a result I will be closely monitoring this game and will play USF if it reaches 6 again.
The College Football Pick: Pass unless USF reaches +6 or better
Week 7 College Football Betting Card
Georgia Tech +17
USF at +6 or better
For more general betting tips, check out our college football picks betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images