College Football Weekly Picks Week 5
Week 5 is here and all the conferences are now into the games that really matter. There are still going to be a few games every week that will be lopsided affairs but most of them will be tough inter-conference games. Starting now it is more important than it has been all year to use Vegas lines to figure out how many points each team is expected to score and use opponent defensive rankings when selecting players. Each site has different player pools and make sure you are aware of all the teams when selecting players because usually your best value plays come from the smaller schools. Normally I tell you to spend of QB but this week might be a little different as most of the true stud QB’s are not in either slate of games on Saturday.
Quaterback
Jake Waters (Kansas St) E Waters is a great dual threat QB but most people are overlooking him because he was splitting snaps last year and not getting the rushing attempts. Last week he played a very strong Auburn defense and Kansas St couldn’t get anything going. This week they get UTEP who is terrible at stopping the run. I think many people will be on the Kansas St running game and will forget that Waters is the main runner in this offense. Waters has 48 carries this year and the #1 and #2 running back have a combined 58 carries. Waters also has one of the best WR’s in the game to throw the ball too. I love his upside this week and think his floor is pretty high as well. He will find his way into many of my lineups.
Tyler Jones (Texas St) L Jones is not available on all the sites but he has a very cheap price tag where he is. The last two weeks he has averaged more than 30 fantasy points per game and this game he has a better matchup than he had in either of the last two games. This game sports a 66 point O/U with only a 3 point spread. When you find a line like this it usually means there are going to be some fireworks as the teams with be trying to match each other score for score. He is averaging 40 passing attempts and 18 rushing attempts per game in the last 2 with 7 total TD’s. I am expecting 3+ scores in this one with good rushing and passing stats as well.
Bryce Petty (Baylor) L If there is any QB that I will be paying up for this week Petty will definitely be that guy. Petty brings huge passing upside with a good chance at 400 yards and 4 TD’s. The thing most people don’t even realize is Petty had 14 rushing TD’s last year to go along with 32 passing TD’s. He is the ultimate TD grouch in the running game as he doesn’t get many yards but they call his number when they get close to the end zone. With Mariota and Hill not playing this week Petty by far has the biggest upside at the QB position.
Other Options: Trevone Boykin (TCU), Kenny Hill (Texas A&M), Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
Running Back
Tevin Coleman (Indiana) E Coleman had a down game for him last week and still managed to get 189 total yards and a TD. He missed most of the first half last week and still put up those stats. The main reason I like Coleman more than the other expensive backs is the fact that Indiana has a horrible defense so he is going to play all 4 quarters most weeks. This week Indiana finds themselves in another game with a 70 point O/U with only a 4 point spread. These are the type of games you need exposure to and Coleman is hands down the guy you want from Indiana. I think 200 total yards and multiple TD’s are a reasonable expectation for Coleman.
Jay Ajayi (Boise St) L Ajayi is the definition of a workhorse running back. Ajayi is averaging over 30 touches per game and 175 total yards. He also has managed to find his way into the end zone 7 times so far this year. Boise St should be ahead in the second half of this game against Air Force but it will be a reasonably close game which means Ajayi running the ball all day long. I would be surprised if he gets less than 30 touches again this week, so it is safe to say expect big numbers again this week.
Robert Lowe (Texas St) L Lowe has good stats so far this year but nothing that jumps out at you. Hopefully most people will be thinking that and pass on Lowe this week thinking he is just an average back. The thing that makes him so appealing this week is the matchup. Tulsa is flat out awful at stopping the run and Lowe should have a field day running through their defense. He has had at least 3 catches in every game this season as well so he can help you in a couple of different ways. Feel comfortable playing him in all formats as I just don’t see any scenario of him having a down game.
Other Options: Travis Greene (Bowling Green), Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska), Aaron Jones (UTEP)
Wide Receiver
Nelson Spruce (Colorado) E Spruce is putting up stats that are almost unheard of from a WR. He is both consitent and has as much upside as any receiver in the country. His worst game of the season through four games is 7 catches for 97 yards and 2 TD’s, with most players you are just hoping for a game like that. He is playing in another game that should have a lot of scoring so expect 7+ catches 100+ yards and at least 1 TD with the upside of much more in all three categories. Spruce won’t come cheap but he is the rare WR that is more consistent than the expensive RB’s.
Antwan Goodley (Baylor) L Goodley was a top 5 fantasy WR heading into the season. Four weeks and a minor injury later and he is a forgotten man. He will quickly stake claim to being the focal point in a high powered Baylor offense that week to week will score more points than anyone in CFB. This week Vegas has the Bears scoring 6 TD’s and I am guessing 4 or 5 will come through the air. Goodley is one of the best GPP plays of the week but don’t be scared to roll him into your cash game lineups as well.
Roger Lewis (Bowling Green) E Lewis is not available on all the sites this week but I highly recommend playing him wherever he is available. Lewis was averaging 10 catches and 120 yards a game through the first 3 weeks. Then last week people started to realize this guy was a player and played him when the matchup just wasn’t there against Wisconsin. I think most people will remember last week when he let them down instead of the first 3 games when he was a stud. Saying Umass doesn’t quite have the defense Wisconsin does is probably a bit if an understatement. Play him this week when the matchup is back in his favor and his salary is very reasonable as well.
Other Options: Isiah Myers (Washington St), D’haquille Williams (Auburn), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Tyler Lockett (Kansas St)
Tight End
Clive Walford (Miami) L I usually don’t spend to get a TE but with Walford you don’t have to jump up that much in salary to get a TE that has a great chance at scoring a TD. Walford has scored a TD in 3 of the 4 games the Hurricanes have played this year and in every one in which the starters played the whole game. He has the best chance at getting to double digit fantasy points of any TE in all of CFB. He is only about $500 more than the other guys you are probably considering this week, just spend the little extra and feel good about your chances of getting a TD from of a weak position.
Sam Arneson (Wisconsin) E The Wisconsin passing game is not the strength of their football team and they probably won’t even lean on it in any game this year. Arneson however is becoming the #1 target in that passing game and anytime you can get a cheap TE that a team will look to on third downs and in the red zone is a pretty good feeling. If you want a cheap TE that probably will get or approach double digits Arneson is as good of option as there is out there in the early slate.
Other Options: Justin Sinz (Purdue), Bradley Miller (Texas St)