College Football Weekly Picks: Week 6
Week 6 is here and it brings quite a few things to think about when building your rosters. I will let you know what factors I think need to go through your thought process when building lineups this week.
The first factor is there are some horribly mispriced players on the sites this week which is not a good thing for the hardcore players but it is hard to fade them in cash games. Second there are some O/U’s that just cannot be ignored and you really need to figure out which players from these games you want to target. Third there is quite a few players that will start playing full games now that conference play is starting and their stats are going to take off. The last thing to consider is not getting excited about great actual college football games and think about the players you should have from these games. Usually when there is a great football game that doesn’t translate into fantasy goodness.
With all those thoughts now going through your heads, here are some of the guys I will be targeting this week.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (Clemson) E – Watson got his first start last week and he showed us why they gave him the job. I don’t think it will be as easy to move the ball this week against NC St, but they are far from a shutdown defense. Dollar for dollar I think he is the best play this week, as he has huge upside both on the ground and through the air. I think the floor for Watson is 300 total yards and 3 TDs with the upside of much more. Playing him allows for you to roster most of the other guys you want.
Dak Prescott (Mississippi St) E – Prescott is probably the best fantasy QB on the Saturday slate this week. You are going to have to pay to roster him, but there are so many mispriced players this week it is easy to fit him into your roster. When you play Prescott, it is almost like you get to roster a QB and a RB all in one player. He has 100+ rushing yards and a TD in each of the last three games. You can probably expect another 200 passing yards and 2-3 TDs through the air as well. Prescott is the only QB this week that if he gets 30 points you will be disappointed. If you are a multiple lineup guy, I strongly consider having at least one with Prescott in it.
Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati) L – Kiel was impressing me in his first two games, but last week he sold me on the fact that he is a legitimate stud QB. Throwing for 350 yards and four TDs against Ohio St is no easy feat and that is exactly what Kiel did in only his third game. This week he faces a much weaker Memphis team, and I think he will meet or surpass his average game which is 350 yards and five TDs.
Other Options: Kenny Hill (Texas A&M), JT Barrett (Ohio St), Connor Halliday (Washington St)
Running Back
Anthone Taylor (Buffalo) E – Taylor is not available on all the sites, but he is probably the best play on the slates where he is available. His salary is just too cheap for all the things he has going for him this week. First is that fact that he will get 25+ touches in this game. Second is this game against Bowling Green has an unheard of O/U of 77, so you need exposure to this one. Buffalo is projected to score five TDs this week and I would be surprised if Taylor doesn’t score at least two of them. 150+ yards and two TDs is probably what you can expect with the chance at a four-TD game.
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) E – Gordon has showed us the last two games why many people thought he was the best RB in the country heading into the season. The 250 yard, five-TD game was impressive a couple of weeks ago, but last week impressed me more. I love the fact that when nothing else was working for Wisconsin last week they had no problem feeding him the ball 32 times. This week they could find themselves in a similar situation facing a good Northwestern team in a game that could very well determine who wins the conference. I expect the Badgers to lean heavily on Gordon this week, and he will not disappoint them.
Jay Ajayi (Boise St) L – Ajayi had a down game last week, but I just think he is too good to have another bad game this week. A bad game for Ajayi is still 120 total yards, but he just didn’t manage to find his way into the end zone. I expect him to bounce back this week, with one of his 150+ yards and multiple-score games. Boise St also has some issues going on in the passing game with poor play and injuries, so I expect them to lean on Ajayi to the tune of 30 touches this week as well.
Other Options: Todd Gurley (Georgia), Samaje Perine (Oklahoma), Javorius Allen (USC)
Wide Receiver
Nelson Spruce (Colorado) E – Spruce is putting up stats that are just not normal right now. Over the last two games he is averaging 16 catches for 175 yards and 2 TD’s. He still doesn’t have a game this year with under 25 fantasy points. He is more consistent than the stud RB’s and offers more upside for a lesser salary. I just cannot find a good reason to fade this guy in a cash game and I have a hard time leaving him of my teams in any format. Many people have a hard time paying this much for a WR don’t be that guy as there is plenty of value this week to fit him into your roster.
Roger Lewis (Bowling Green) E – Lewis is another player from that Bowling Green/Buffalo game that features the 77 point O/U. Lewis has had 140 yards and a TD in three of his last four games, and the one that he didn’t get there Bowling Green was facing a Wisconsin team where they were just over matched. I expect him to hit those numbers again this week and wouldn’t be surprised if he found his way into the end zone multiple times. Lewis is also underpriced, so he frees up some salary to get to some of those expensive guys we all want.
Tony Lippett (Michigan St) L – Lippett has some good stats, but you have to realize he has only played in the second half of one game all year. In that game Lippett put up 11 catches for 130 yards and a TD. He has also scored a TD in every game this year and has multiple scores in two of them. If Michigan St was like some of the other teams in the country and played their studs for 3+ quarters even in the blowouts, everybody would be talking about how good this guy is. Play him this week before everybody sees how good he is on national TV.
Other Options: Mike Williams (Clemson), Corey Coleman (Baylor), Kevin White (West Virginia), Nelson Agholor (USC)
Tight End
Cam Serigne (Wake Forest) E – Serigne is probably a player that most people haven’t even heard of. The thing he brings to the table is consistency out of the TE position and that isn’t easy to find. He is averaging double-figure fantasy points per game on the year and he is cheap. All the things I have mentioned above, including the fact that most people haven’t even heard of him, are reasons I will be playing Serigne this week.
Clive Walford (Miami) L – Walford is probably not going to put up a huge number if you play him, but he won’t put up a goose egg either. He has scored a TD in over half of Miami’s games this year and that will probably continue. If I have a 50/50 chance of my TE scoring a TD for the price tag Walford has, I think that is a chance well worth taking.
Other Options: Nick O’Leary (Florida St), Josiah Price (Michigan St)