Colts vs. Vikings Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Colts vs. Vikings Odds
| Colts Odds | +5.5 |
| Vikings Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Date | Sunday, November 3 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings will meet on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Vikings as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Joe Flacco is only 4-24 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-17 SU since 2013. Sam Darnold is only 2-6 SU in his career on extended rest.
Indianapolis Colts Preview
Flacco back under center for Colts
Following another underwhelming showing from Anthony Richardson in Week 8, Joe Flacco has been named the starter for the Colts heading into their primetime affair against the Vikings. From Week 4 to Week 6, Flacco ranked 8th in EPA/play, 20th in success rate, and 10th in CPOE among 37 quarterbacks to have 10+ dropbacks. Notably, Flacco had a positive EPA/play in each of those 3 games, throwing 7 touchdowns against only 1 interception.
He’s a significant upgrade in the short term over Richardson, who ranks 34th in EPA/play, 38th in success rate, and 42nd in CPOE among 42 quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks this season. The biggest hurdle for this Indianapolis offense in this matchup will be how they manage the loss of their starting LT Bernhard Raimann, who will miss tonight’s game with a concussion.
Indianapolis defense trending up heading into Week 9
Other than EDGE Kwity Paye, there are no new injury concerns of which to be mindful of for the Colts this week. Star DT DeForest Buckner returned to the field in Week 8 and made an immediate impact, posting a sack and a pair of hits on the quarterback. Impact CB Kenny Moore missed Week 4 and Week 5 due to injury, but has helped the Colts’ defense hold their opponents to 23 points or fewer in each of their 3 games since he has returned from injury. During that stretch, Indianapolis’ defense ranks 7th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Can Darnold break out of recent slump?
After leading his team to 5 consecutive wins to begin the campaign, Sam Darnold and company have lost both of their last 2 games – and they hadn’t looked particularly good offensively in either of those contests. Minnesota scored 29 points in Week 7 against the Lions, but they still only had 16 first downs, and they allowed 4 sacks. The Vikings only had 17 first downs in their Week 8 loss to the Rams and were held to a pedestrian 276 yards of total offense.
Darnold ranked 6th in EPA/play, 4th in success rate, and 3rd in CPOE from Week 1 to Week 4, but he has been less effective of late, ranking 30th in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, and 11th in CPOE from Week 5 to Week 8. Minnesota will have a new starting left tackle tonight, further complicating his hopes of returning to his early-season form.
Cashman to miss 3rd consecutive game
LB Blake Cashman will miss his 3rd consecutive game tonight for the Vikings. At the time of his injury, he led the Vikings’ defense in tackles and was tied for the team lead in passes defensed. According to PFF, he ranked 13th out of 72 linebackers in coverage grade through 5 weeks.
Cashman’s ability to stop the run and operate efficiently in coverage is a major asset for this unit, which has been sorely missed the past 2 weeks. After holding opposing RB1s to 51 rushing yards or fewer in 4 of the team’s 5 first 5 games, Minnesota has allowed 97+ rushing yards to their opponent’s RB1 in each of their last 2 contests.
This defense is unquestionably down a notch with Cashman not on the field.
Colts vs. Vikings Prediction
The Colts are 2-1 in games that Joe Flacco starts this season. Of course, that is an oversimplification of analysis, but it’s difficult to overstate how much stabler the Indianapolis offense is with Flacco under center compared to Anthony Richardson. Minnesota will be without, arguably, their most important defender this evening, which is only going to make life more difficult for the struggling Sam Darnold. The Vikings are rightfully favored here, but this is a big number to cover for a team that hasn’t been playing good football of late.
PICK: Colts +5.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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