Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Commanders vs. Bengals Odds
| Commanders Odds | +7.5 |
| Bengals Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Monday, September 23rd |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
The NFL’s Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3 will conclude with a matchup between the Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals at 8:15 PM ET on ABC and ESPN+.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Bettors could witness a shootout on Monday Night Football, with two high-caliber quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow, facing underwhelming defenses. Washington is coming off of their first win of the season and will be looking to get over the .500 mark. Burrow and the Bengals are hoping to avoid a dreaded 0-3 start to the new campaign.
Washington Commanders Preview
Daniels, Commanders offense off to a good start in 2024
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have scored only 20 points and 21 points in their first two regular season games, but their underlying metrics should give fans optimism that there is even more in the tank. Washington’s offense ranked 6th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. In Week 2, they ranked 4th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate.
The biggest area for improvement is in the red zone, where Washington is only 3-for-9 this season – ranking 27th out of 32 NFL teams. Last weekend, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, with all of their drives falling short of the end zone. Given the team’s ability to consistently move the chains overall, it seems likely that we see some positive regression in this department sooner rather than later.
Washington defense still looking for identity under new coaching staff
The larger concerns for Washington are all on the defensive side of the ball. The Commanders’ defense ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate in their season opener. In Week 2 against the Giants, their defense ranked 27th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate.
Part of the issue for Washington has been an inability to get after the quarterback. This unit has ranked in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate in consecutive games and ranks 30th in sacks per pass attempt. If the Commanders continue to struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this secondary unit is likely to remain among the least productive units in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
What to expect from Burrow, Cincinnati offense in Week 3
Joe Burrow and the Bengals have a dream matchup on Monday Night Football, hosting a Commanders’ defense that has been shredded in back-to-back games. Baker Mayfield led all quarterbacks in EPA/play in Week 1, facing Washington at home. Daniel Jones, who had the worst EPA/play in the league on opening weekend, ranked 5th in EPA/play in Week 2, playing Washington on the road. Burrow and company should thrive this evening, especially through the air.
Bengals’ defense dealing with injury bug heading into Monday Night Football
If there is any concern for Cincinnati heading into Week 3, it’s on the defensive side of the ball. The team could be without DT McKinnley Jackson, DT Kris Jenkins, DT Sheldon Rankins, and DT BJ Hill. Jenkins (Round 2) and Jackson (Round 3) were top draft picks this past summer but have yet to play in 2024. Rankins played 40 snaps in Week 1 and 33 snaps in Week 2. Hill played 52 snaps in Week 1 but was limited to only 14 snaps in Week 2.
Unsurprisingly, the Bengals have struggled against the run with all of the injuries on their defense line. Entering play, they rank 25th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate against opposing rushing attacks.
Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction
Despite struggling mightily in the red zone early this season, Washington has managed 20+ points in consecutive games. Tonight, they get to face a Cincinnati defense that has struggled mightily against the run and is once again dealing with a number of injuries on their defensive line. It’s historically been unwise to expect too much from rookie quarterbacks on the road in September, but this is a good spot for Jayden Daniels and a Washington offense that has been among the best in the league on a down-to-down basis to begin 2024. It’s tough to trust the Commanders’ defense to stop anyone, but their offense should do their part this evening to keep this game competitive.
PICK: Commanders OVER 18.5 Total Points (-118, DraftKings)
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